KPDX / Sun Oct 25 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Portland, ORHigh ≥ 60°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST78%Oct 20 · 14:46 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

95%

92%

73%

63%

60%

Consensus

78%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

HRESYES 77.7¢Risks 77.70u

AIFSNO 22.3¢Risks 22.30u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

HRES +22.30u · AIFS −22.30u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T14:46:26+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-19T04:31:31+00:00	21.7%	62.2%	37.7%	27.8%	45.2%
2026-10-19T05:17:08+00:00	21.7%	62.2%	48.4%	27.8%	45.2%
2026-10-19T06:02:16+00:00	21.7%	62.2%	48.4%	27.8%	45.2%
2026-10-19T06:47:24+00:00	21.7%	62.2%	48.4%	27.8%	45.2%
2026-10-19T07:33:47+00:00	20.3%	62.2%	48.4%	36.4%	63.7%
2026-10-19T08:19:24+00:00	20.3%	62.2%	48.4%	36.4%	63.7%
2026-10-19T09:04:30+00:00	20.3%	62.2%	48.4%	36.4%	63.7%
2026-10-19T09:49:37+00:00	20.3%	62.2%	48.4%	36.4%	63.7%
2026-10-19T10:35:25+00:00	20.3%	62.2%	48.4%	36.4%	63.7%
2026-10-19T11:21:18+00:00	20.3%	59.0%	31.1%	36.4%	63.7%
2026-10-19T12:06:39+00:00	20.3%	59.0%	31.1%	36.4%	63.7%
2026-10-19T12:51:52+00:00	20.3%	59.0%	31.1%	36.4%	63.7%
2026-10-19T13:37:04+00:00	47.1%	59.0%	31.1%	36.4%	63.7%
2026-10-19T14:28:05+00:00	47.0%	59.0%	31.1%	36.4%	63.2%
2026-10-20T04:05:42+00:00	69.1%	58.5%	71.8%	56.0%	65.3%
2026-10-20T04:51:24+00:00	69.1%	58.5%	71.8%	56.0%	65.3%
2026-10-20T05:36:35+00:00	69.1%	58.5%	78.6%	56.0%	65.3%
2026-10-20T06:21:43+00:00	69.1%	58.5%	78.6%	56.0%	65.3%
2026-10-20T07:06:50+00:00	69.1%	58.5%	78.6%	56.0%	65.3%
2026-10-20T07:52:02+00:00	60.4%	58.5%	78.6%	56.0%	91.6%
2026-10-20T08:37:10+00:00	60.4%	58.5%	78.6%	56.0%	91.6%
2026-10-20T09:22:31+00:00	60.4%	58.5%	78.6%	56.0%	91.6%
2026-10-20T10:07:49+00:00	60.4%	58.5%	78.6%	56.0%	91.6%
2026-10-20T10:54:17+00:00	60.4%	73.3%	63.3%	95.0%	91.6%
2026-10-20T11:39:48+00:00	60.4%	73.3%	63.3%	95.0%	91.6%
2026-10-20T12:24:54+00:00	60.4%	73.3%	63.3%	95.0%	91.6%
2026-10-20T13:10:06+00:00	60.4%	73.3%	63.3%	95.0%	91.6%
2026-10-20T13:55:25+00:00	60.4%	73.3%	63.4%	95.0%	91.6%
2026-10-20T14:46:26+00:00	60.4%	73.3%	63.4%	95.0%	91.6%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS HRES	95%	69.0°F	5.8°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
ICON	92%	67.9°F	6.1°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	73%	66.1°F	10.6°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
National Blend	65%	62.0°F	6.6°F	2026-10-20 06:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	63%	60.9°F	4.1°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	60%	60.8°F	4.9°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	54%	60.0°F	5.2°F	2026-10-20 03:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 60°F · KPDX

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KPDX-20261025-TMAX-GE60
Opened Oct 19 · 04:31 UTC

Original listing: Portland high ≥ 60°F · Sun Oct 25

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗