KPDX / Sun Oct 25 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Portland, ORHigh ≥ 68°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST16%Oct 20 · 14:46 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

60%

53%

45%

Consensus

16%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

HRESYES 32.9¢Risks 32.85u

WN2NO 67.2¢Risks 67.15u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

HRES +67.15u · WN2 −67.15u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	1.2%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	0.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	5.5%	—	—	—	—	24.4%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	54.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	55.8%	—	—	—	—	29.2%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	43.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	20.1%	—	—	—	—	26.5%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	27.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	8.9%	—	—	—	—	22.0%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	18.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	7.7%	—	—	—	—	14.3%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	4.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	26.1%	—	—	—	—	17.9%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	49.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	8.5%	—	—	—	—	22.8%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	38.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	5.6%	—	—	—	—	18.9%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	18.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	16.7%	—	—	—	—	16.7%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	9.6%	—	0.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	0.4%	—	—	—	—	15.6%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	28.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	5.9%	—	—	—	—	20.1%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	2.3%	—	1.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	1.5%	—	1.5%	—	—	9.5%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	0.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	1.6%	—	—	—	—	13.9%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	0.2%	—	0.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	75.4%	—	—	12.7%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	82.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	0.1%	0.1%	61.3%	—	—	4.7%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	0.6%	—	0.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	0.2%	0.8%	10.5%	0.1%	—	3.1%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	23.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	0.1%	4.6%	0.2%	2.9%	—	3.5%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	1.0%	—	67.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	4.6%	50.0%	0.1%	—	3.6%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	4.1%	—	56.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	1.8%	32.3%	49.2%	13.6%	0.2%	13.6%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	14.8%	—	67.4%	—	—	26.3%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS HRES	60%	69.0°F	5.8°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
ICON	53%	67.9°F	6.1°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	45%	66.1°F	10.6°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
National Blend	20%	62.0°F	6.6°F	2026-10-20 06:00	Pending
AIFS Single	9%	60.8°F	4.9°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	8%	60.0°F	5.2°F	2026-10-20 03:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	5%	60.9°F	4.1°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 68°F · KPDX

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KPDX-20261025-TMAX-GE68
Opened Oct 18 · 08:01 UTC

Original listing: Portland runs hot-for-here: 68°F+ · Sun Oct 25

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗