KPDX / Mon Oct 26 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Portland, ORHigh ≥ 61°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST59%Oct 20 · 03:18 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

73%

64%

59%

58%

42%

Consensus

59%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

HRESYES 57.5¢Risks 57.50u

AIFSNO 42.5¢Risks 42.50u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

HRES +42.50u · AIFS −42.50u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	3.9%	—	—	—	—	11.2%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	26.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	69.4%	—	—	—	—	57.9%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	67.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	30.1%	—	—	—	—	58.5%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	60.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	22.8%	—	—	—	—	44.7%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	33.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	43.1%	—	—	—	—	53.2%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	45.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	34.9%	—	—	—	—	62.1%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	59.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	26.1%	—	—	—	—	59.0%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	64.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	42.1%	—	—	—	—	61.0%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	51.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	15.2%	—	—	—	—	51.1%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	68.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	22.4%	—	—	—	—	59.3%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	8.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	8.6%	—	—	—	—	44.9%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	5.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	9.0%	—	—	—	—	54.1%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	8.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	3.2%	—	45.8%	—	—	59.6%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	3.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	5.9%	—	73.0%	—	—	34.1%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	4.9%	—	32.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	3.5%	—	3.0%	—	—	30.1%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	14.0%	—	66.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	2.6%	1.0%	60.0%	—	—	34.2%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	6.9%	—	81.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	2.9%	42.3%	66.4%	1.7%	—	38.2%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	16.6%	—	93.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	8.4%	32.3%	82.5%	76.8%	14.8%	53.6%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	66.0%	—	91.7%	—	—	—

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS HRES	73%	64.5°F	6.4°F	2026-10-19 12:00	Pending
ICON	64%	64.0°F	10.0°F	2026-10-19 12:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	59%	62.6°F	9.6°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	58%	61.5°F	5.1°F	2026-10-19 12:00	Pending
National Blend	53%	61.0°F	6.6°F	2026-10-19 06:00	Pending
AIFS Single	42%	59.3°F	5.7°F	2026-10-19 18:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 61°F · KPDX

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KPDX-20261026-TMAX-GE61
Opened Oct 19 · 11:21 UTC

Original listing: Portland high ≥ 61°F · Mon Oct 26

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗