KPDX / Mon Oct 26 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Portland, ORHigh ≥ 61°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST59%Oct 20 · 03:18 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

73%

64%

59%

58%

42%

Consensus

59%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

HRESYES 57.5¢Risks 57.50u

AIFSNO 42.5¢Risks 42.50u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

HRES +42.50u · AIFS −42.50u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T03:18:07+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-19T11:21:18+00:00	10.2%	59.0%	29.9%	37.2%	17.9%
2026-10-19T12:06:39+00:00	10.2%	59.0%	29.9%	37.2%	17.9%
2026-10-19T12:51:52+00:00	10.2%	59.0%	29.9%	37.2%	17.9%
2026-10-19T13:37:04+00:00	22.7%	59.0%	29.9%	37.2%	17.9%
2026-10-19T14:28:05+00:00	22.7%	59.0%	29.8%	37.2%	18.0%
2026-10-19T15:13:55+00:00	22.7%	58.7%	29.8%	37.2%	18.0%
2026-10-19T15:59:10+00:00	22.7%	58.7%	29.8%	37.2%	18.0%
2026-10-19T16:44:24+00:00	22.7%	58.7%	29.8%	37.2%	18.0%
2026-10-19T17:29:35+00:00	22.7%	58.7%	50.8%	37.2%	18.0%
2026-10-19T18:14:41+00:00	22.7%	58.7%	50.8%	37.2%	18.0%
2026-10-19T19:00:16+00:00	22.7%	58.7%	50.8%	37.2%	18.0%
2026-10-19T19:45:32+00:00	12.5%	58.7%	50.8%	73.3%	63.6%
2026-10-19T20:30:42+00:00	12.5%	58.7%	50.8%	73.3%	63.6%
2026-10-19T21:15:55+00:00	12.5%	58.7%	50.8%	73.3%	63.6%
2026-10-19T22:01:05+00:00	12.5%	58.7%	50.8%	73.3%	63.6%
2026-10-19T22:46:17+00:00	12.5%	58.7%	50.8%	73.3%	63.6%
2026-10-19T23:31:31+00:00	12.5%	58.7%	57.8%	73.3%	63.6%
2026-10-20T00:17:09+00:00	12.5%	58.7%	57.8%	73.3%	63.6%
2026-10-20T01:02:40+00:00	12.5%	58.7%	57.8%	73.3%	63.6%
2026-10-20T01:47:51+00:00	41.7%	58.7%	57.8%	73.3%	63.6%
2026-10-20T02:33:00+00:00	41.7%	58.7%	57.8%	73.3%	63.6%
2026-10-20T03:18:07+00:00	41.7%	58.7%	57.8%	73.3%	63.6%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS HRES	73%	64.5°F	6.4°F	2026-10-19 12:00	Pending
ICON	64%	64.0°F	10.0°F	2026-10-19 12:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	59%	62.6°F	9.6°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	58%	61.5°F	5.1°F	2026-10-19 12:00	Pending
National Blend	53%	61.0°F	6.6°F	2026-10-19 06:00	Pending
AIFS Single	42%	59.3°F	5.7°F	2026-10-19 18:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 61°F · KPDX

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KPDX-20261026-TMAX-GE61
Opened Oct 19 · 11:21 UTC

Original listing: Portland high ≥ 61°F · Mon Oct 26

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗