KPDX / Mon Oct 26 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Portland, ORHigh ≥ 67°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST37%Oct 20 · 18:33 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

77%

48%

46%

25%

22%

Consensus

37%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

HRESYES 49.4¢Risks 49.35u

WN2NO 50.6¢Risks 50.65u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

HRES +50.65u · WN2 −50.65u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T12:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	0.5%	—	—	—	—	2.2%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	7.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	38.5%	—	—	—	—	27.4%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	35.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	9.3%	—	—	—	—	27.9%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	29.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	6.1%	—	—	—	—	17.5%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	11.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	16.5%	—	—	—	—	23.6%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	18.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	11.8%	—	—	—	—	31.1%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	28.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	7.5%	—	—	—	—	28.3%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	33.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	15.9%	—	—	—	—	30.1%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	22.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	3.3%	—	—	—	—	21.9%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	37.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	5.6%	—	—	—	—	27.7%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	1.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	1.3%	—	—	—	—	16.3%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	0.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	1.3%	—	—	—	—	21.8%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	1.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	0.3%	—	15.4%	—	—	25.2%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	0.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	0.6%	—	37.0%	—	—	8.8%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	0.4%	—	7.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	0.3%	—	0.2%	—	—	6.7%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	1.9%	—	28.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	0.1%	0.0%	22.3%	—	—	7.7%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	0.6%	—	44.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	0.1%	10.5%	26.3%	0.1%	—	8.7%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	2.0%	—	67.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	0.7%	5.9%	43.4%	35.7%	1.6%	15.6%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	23.8%	—	60.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-20T12:00:00+00:00	—	—	76.1%	—	—	—

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS HRES	77%	71.3°F	6.6°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	48%	66.3°F	5.4°F	2026-10-20 06:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	46%	65.5°F	11.2°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	34%	64.0°F	5.9°F	2026-10-20 14:00	Pending
National Blend	30%	63.0°F	6.5°F	2026-10-20 06:00	Pending
ICON	25%	61.6°F	7.1°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	22%	62.9°F	4.7°F	2026-10-20 06:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 67°F · KPDX

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KPDX-20261026-TMAX-GE67
Opened Oct 19 · 07:33 UTC

Original listing: Portland runs hot-for-here: 67°F+ · Mon Oct 26

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗