KPDX / Mon Oct 26 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Portland, ORHigh ≥ 67°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST22%Oct 20 · 15:32 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

77%

46%

25%

11%

Consensus

22%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

HRESYES 40.2¢Risks 40.20u

AIFSNO 59.8¢Risks 59.80u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

HRES +59.80u · AIFS −59.80u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T15:32:44+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-19T07:33:48+00:00	1.0%	32.1%	12.5%	10.5%	6.4%
2026-10-19T08:19:24+00:00	1.0%	32.1%	12.5%	10.5%	6.4%
2026-10-19T09:04:30+00:00	1.0%	32.1%	12.5%	10.5%	6.4%
2026-10-19T09:49:37+00:00	1.0%	32.1%	12.5%	10.5%	6.4%
2026-10-19T10:35:25+00:00	1.0%	32.1%	12.5%	10.5%	6.4%
2026-10-19T11:21:19+00:00	1.0%	34.7%	4.4%	10.5%	6.4%
2026-10-19T12:06:39+00:00	1.0%	34.7%	4.4%	10.5%	6.4%
2026-10-19T12:51:52+00:00	1.0%	34.7%	4.4%	10.5%	6.4%
2026-10-19T13:37:04+00:00	3.7%	34.7%	4.4%	10.5%	6.4%
2026-10-19T14:28:05+00:00	3.6%	34.7%	4.4%	10.4%	6.5%
2026-10-19T15:13:55+00:00	3.6%	34.2%	4.4%	10.4%	6.5%
2026-10-19T15:59:10+00:00	3.6%	34.2%	4.4%	10.4%	6.5%
2026-10-19T16:44:24+00:00	3.6%	34.2%	4.4%	10.4%	6.5%
2026-10-19T17:29:35+00:00	3.6%	34.2%	12.4%	10.4%	6.5%
2026-10-19T18:14:41+00:00	3.6%	34.2%	12.4%	10.4%	6.5%
2026-10-19T19:00:16+00:00	3.6%	34.2%	12.4%	10.4%	6.5%
2026-10-19T19:45:32+00:00	1.4%	34.2%	12.4%	37.8%	40.2%
2026-10-19T20:30:42+00:00	1.4%	34.2%	12.4%	37.8%	40.2%
2026-10-19T21:15:55+00:00	1.4%	34.2%	12.4%	37.8%	40.2%
2026-10-19T22:01:05+00:00	1.4%	34.2%	12.4%	37.8%	40.2%
2026-10-19T22:46:17+00:00	1.4%	34.2%	12.4%	37.8%	40.2%
2026-10-19T23:31:31+00:00	1.4%	34.2%	16.3%	37.8%	40.2%
2026-10-20T00:17:09+00:00	1.4%	34.2%	16.3%	37.8%	40.2%
2026-10-20T01:02:40+00:00	1.4%	34.2%	16.3%	37.8%	40.2%
2026-10-20T01:47:51+00:00	10.5%	34.2%	16.3%	37.8%	40.2%
2026-10-20T02:33:00+00:00	10.5%	34.2%	16.3%	37.8%	40.2%
2026-10-20T03:18:07+00:00	10.5%	34.2%	16.3%	37.8%	40.2%
2026-10-20T04:05:42+00:00	10.5%	34.2%	16.3%	37.8%	40.2%
2026-10-20T04:51:24+00:00	10.5%	34.2%	16.3%	37.8%	40.2%
2026-10-20T05:36:35+00:00	10.5%	34.2%	20.5%	37.8%	40.2%
2026-10-20T06:21:43+00:00	10.5%	34.2%	20.5%	37.8%	40.2%
2026-10-20T07:06:50+00:00	10.5%	34.2%	20.5%	37.8%	40.2%
2026-10-20T07:52:02+00:00	3.8%	34.2%	20.5%	37.8%	24.6%
2026-10-20T08:37:10+00:00	3.8%	34.2%	20.5%	37.8%	24.6%
2026-10-20T09:22:31+00:00	3.8%	34.2%	20.5%	37.8%	24.6%
2026-10-20T10:07:49+00:00	3.8%	34.2%	20.5%	37.8%	24.6%
2026-10-20T10:54:17+00:00	3.8%	46.8%	10.7%	76.7%	24.6%
2026-10-20T11:39:48+00:00	3.8%	46.8%	10.7%	76.7%	24.6%
2026-10-20T12:24:54+00:00	3.8%	46.8%	10.7%	76.7%	24.6%
2026-10-20T13:10:06+00:00	3.8%	46.8%	10.7%	76.7%	24.6%
2026-10-20T13:55:25+00:00	3.7%	46.8%	10.7%	76.7%	24.6%
2026-10-20T14:46:26+00:00	3.7%	46.8%	10.7%	76.7%	24.6%
2026-10-20T15:32:44+00:00	3.7%	46.4%	10.7%	76.7%	24.6%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS HRES	77%	71.3°F	6.6°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	46%	65.5°F	11.2°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	34%	64.0°F	5.9°F	2026-10-20 14:00	Pending
National Blend	30%	63.0°F	6.5°F	2026-10-20 06:00	Pending
ICON	25%	61.6°F	7.1°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	11%	60.7°F	4.7°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	4%	56.9°F	5.4°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 67°F · KPDX

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KPDX-20261026-TMAX-GE67
Opened Oct 19 · 07:33 UTC

Original listing: Portland runs hot-for-here: 67°F+ · Mon Oct 26

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗