KPDX / Tue Oct 27 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Portland, ORHigh ≥ 67°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST19%Oct 20 · 14:46 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

79%

44%

20%

11%

Consensus

19%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

HRESYES 41.2¢Risks 41.25u

AIFSNO 58.7¢Risks 58.75u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

HRES +58.75u · AIFS −58.75u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	1.5%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	6.6%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	20.4%	—	—	—	15.2%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	3.0%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	3.7%	—	—	—	19.7%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	12.8%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	24.8%	—	—	—	28.3%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	6.6%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	14.6%	—	—	—	28.8%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	26.1%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	18.6%	—	—	—	29.7%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	15.9%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	5.5%	—	—	—	21.6%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	15.6%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	2.0%	—	—	—	21.2%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	0.6%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	0.6%	—	—	—	10.7%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	1.1%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	4.0%	—	—	—	14.7%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	1.9%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	0.7%	—	—	—	14.0%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	1.6%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	5.6%	—	54.1%	—	6.3%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	4.0%	—	8.2%	—	—
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	2.7%	—	—	—	5.3%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	8.0%	—	1.0%	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	2.4%	—	42.5%	—	7.6%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	2.6%	—	72.9%	—	—
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	1.1%	—	80.2%	—	6.7%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	4.2%	—	82.0%	—	—
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	0.7%	1.3%	5.8%	0.1%	14.3%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	6.2%	—	68.6%	—	—

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS HRES	79%	71.7°F	6.4°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	44%	64.9°F	10.5°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
National Blend	25%	62.0°F	6.6°F	2026-10-20 06:00	Pending
ICON	20%	57.9°F	10.0°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	11%	60.2°F	5.1°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	4%	56.1°F	5.7°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 67°F · KPDX

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KPDX-20261027-TMAX-GE67
Opened Oct 20 · 10:54 UTC

Original listing: Portland runs hot-for-here: 67°F+ · Tue Oct 27

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗