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KPDX / Tue Oct 27 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Portland, ORHigh ≥ 67°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST19%Oct 20 · 14:46 UTC
THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%
HRES
79%
EPS
44%
ICON
20%
WN2
11%
AIFS
4%
Consensus
19%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED
HRESYES 41.2¢Risks 41.25u
VS
AIFSNO 58.7¢Risks 58.75u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

HRES +58.75u · AIFS −58.75u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

RecordedReconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

0%25%50%75%100%AIFS Single: 3.5% · 2026-10-20T10:54:17+00:00AIFS Single: 3.5% · 2026-10-20T11:39:48+00:00AIFS Single: 3.5% · 2026-10-20T12:24:54+00:00AIFS Single: 3.5% · 2026-10-20T13:10:06+00:00AIFS Single: 3.5% · 2026-10-20T13:55:25+00:00AIFS Single: 3.5% · 2026-10-20T14:46:26+00:00IFS Ensemble: 43.9% · 2026-10-20T10:54:17+00:00IFS Ensemble: 43.9% · 2026-10-20T11:39:48+00:00IFS Ensemble: 43.9% · 2026-10-20T12:24:54+00:00IFS Ensemble: 43.9% · 2026-10-20T13:10:06+00:00IFS Ensemble: 43.9% · 2026-10-20T13:55:25+00:00IFS Ensemble: 43.9% · 2026-10-20T14:46:26+00:00WeatherNext 2: 10.8% · 2026-10-20T10:54:17+00:00WeatherNext 2: 10.8% · 2026-10-20T11:39:48+00:00WeatherNext 2: 10.8% · 2026-10-20T12:24:54+00:00WeatherNext 2: 10.8% · 2026-10-20T13:10:06+00:00WeatherNext 2: 10.8% · 2026-10-20T13:55:25+00:00WeatherNext 2: 10.8% · 2026-10-20T14:46:26+00:00IFS HRES: 79.0% · 2026-10-20T10:54:17+00:00IFS HRES: 79.0% · 2026-10-20T11:39:48+00:00IFS HRES: 79.0% · 2026-10-20T12:24:54+00:00IFS HRES: 79.0% · 2026-10-20T13:10:06+00:00IFS HRES: 79.0% · 2026-10-20T13:55:25+00:00IFS HRES: 79.0% · 2026-10-20T14:46:26+00:00ICON: 19.6% · 2026-10-20T10:54:17+00:00ICON: 19.6% · 2026-10-20T11:39:48+00:00ICON: 19.6% · 2026-10-20T12:24:54+00:00ICON: 19.6% · 2026-10-20T13:10:06+00:00ICON: 19.5% · 2026-10-20T13:55:25+00:00ICON: 19.5% · 2026-10-20T14:46:26+00:0010-20 10:5410-20 13:1010-20 14:46
AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON
2026-10-20T14:46:26+00:00 · UTC
View the forecast data
UTCAIFSEPSWN2HRESICON
2026-10-20T10:54:17+00:003.5%43.9%10.8%79.0%19.6%
2026-10-20T11:39:48+00:003.5%43.9%10.8%79.0%19.6%
2026-10-20T12:24:54+00:003.5%43.9%10.8%79.0%19.6%
2026-10-20T13:10:06+00:003.5%43.9%10.8%79.0%19.6%
2026-10-20T13:55:25+00:003.5%43.9%10.8%79.0%19.5%
2026-10-20T14:46:26+00:003.5%43.9%10.8%79.0%19.5%
THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODELYESMEANSPREAD σINITIALIZATION UTCBRIER ↓
IFS HRES79%71.7°F6.4°F2026-10-20 00:00Pending
IFS Ensemble44%64.9°F10.5°F2026-10-20 00:00Pending
National Blend25%62.0°F6.6°F2026-10-20 06:00Pending
ICON20%57.9°F10.0°F2026-10-20 00:00Pending
WeatherNext 211%60.2°F5.1°F2026-10-20 00:00Pending
AIFS Single4%56.1°F5.7°F2026-10-20 00:00Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 67°F · KPDX

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KPDX-20261027-TMAX-GE67
Opened Oct 20 · 10:54 UTC

Original listing: Portland runs hot-for-here: 67°F+ · Tue Oct 27

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗