KPHL / Thu Oct 1 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Philadelphia, PAHigh ≥ 78°F

FINAL OUTCOMEYESSep 26 · 13:44 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

99%

91%

79%

77%

67%

Consensus

84%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 83.0¢Risks 83.05u

ICONNO 16.9¢Risks 16.95u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +16.95u · ICON −16.95u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-01T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-09-16T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-16T12:00:00+00:00	0.3%	—	—	—	—	4.9%
2026-09-16T18:00:00+00:00	25.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-17T00:00:00+00:00	73.0%	—	—	—	—	31.1%
2026-09-17T06:00:00+00:00	35.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-17T12:00:00+00:00	45.8%	—	—	—	—	28.3%
2026-09-17T18:00:00+00:00	16.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-18T00:00:00+00:00	41.5%	—	—	—	—	31.6%
2026-09-18T06:00:00+00:00	29.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-18T12:00:00+00:00	55.8%	—	—	—	—	25.2%
2026-09-18T18:00:00+00:00	40.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-19T00:00:00+00:00	27.4%	—	—	—	—	25.2%
2026-09-19T06:00:00+00:00	49.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-19T12:00:00+00:00	8.3%	—	—	—	—	26.1%
2026-09-19T18:00:00+00:00	40.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-20T00:00:00+00:00	31.6%	—	—	—	—	30.1%
2026-09-20T06:00:00+00:00	9.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-20T12:00:00+00:00	18.5%	—	—	—	—	28.7%
2026-09-20T18:00:00+00:00	18.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-21T00:00:00+00:00	68.5%	—	—	—	—	27.7%
2026-09-21T06:00:00+00:00	77.5%	—	14.3%	—	—	—
2026-09-21T12:00:00+00:00	69.1%	—	—	—	—	27.5%
2026-09-21T18:00:00+00:00	55.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-22T00:00:00+00:00	83.0%	—	41.3%	—	—	37.9%
2026-09-22T06:00:00+00:00	47.0%	—	88.1%	—	—	—
2026-09-22T12:00:00+00:00	74.3%	—	25.2%	—	—	44.6%
2026-09-22T18:00:00+00:00	70.6%	—	15.0%	—	—	—
2026-09-23T00:00:00+00:00	32.4%	—	78.5%	—	—	50.6%
2026-09-23T06:00:00+00:00	88.8%	—	90.0%	—	—	—
2026-09-23T12:00:00+00:00	81.5%	—	37.2%	—	—	57.8%
2026-09-23T18:00:00+00:00	55.3%	—	31.5%	—	—	—
2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00	39.3%	7.7%	44.6%	—	—	58.7%
2026-09-24T06:00:00+00:00	62.9%	—	91.4%	—	—	—
2026-09-24T12:00:00+00:00	75.4%	—	97.0%	18.0%	—	63.8%
2026-09-24T18:00:00+00:00	85.6%	—	71.7%	—	—	—
2026-09-25T00:00:00+00:00	80.6%	74.0%	81.1%	46.4%	—	56.6%
2026-09-25T06:00:00+00:00	90.5%	—	93.1%	—	—	—
2026-09-25T12:00:00+00:00	92.7%	63.5%	64.2%	32.3%	—	62.0%
2026-09-25T18:00:00+00:00	92.3%	—	77.7%	—	—	—
2026-09-26T00:00:00+00:00	93.1%	53.2%	56.4%	67.0%	—	62.5%
2026-09-26T06:00:00+00:00	94.2%	13.0%	86.1%	—	—	—
2026-09-26T12:00:00+00:00	91.0%	80.5%	59.9%	82.2%	—	63.9%
2026-09-26T18:00:00+00:00	92.5%	59.3%	94.1%	—	—	0.3%
2026-09-27T00:00:00+00:00	91.7%	75.9%	94.1%	70.1%	—	69.3%
2026-09-27T06:00:00+00:00	91.5%	75.0%	94.3%	—	—	—
2026-09-27T12:00:00+00:00	90.6%	76.3%	95.0%	79.7%	—	73.4%
2026-09-27T18:00:00+00:00	93.3%	71.6%	95.2%	—	—	74.7%
2026-09-28T00:00:00+00:00	90.6%	79.0%	95.8%	76.0%	—	74.5%
2026-09-28T06:00:00+00:00	90.8%	79.6%	96.2%	—	—	0.1%
2026-09-28T12:00:00+00:00	92.6%	75.7%	95.1%	82.4%	—	75.7%
2026-09-28T18:00:00+00:00	92.4%	60.5%	88.9%	—	—	—
2026-09-29T00:00:00+00:00	81.0%	23.0%	91.5%	81.7%	—	59.7%
2026-09-29T06:00:00+00:00	87.1%	10.7%	96.5%	0.4%	—	57.8%
2026-09-29T12:00:00+00:00	91.0%	15.3%	73.0%	85.3%	75.8%	74.0%
2026-09-29T18:00:00+00:00	88.0%	25.3%	17.5%	85.5%	—	—
2026-09-30T00:00:00+00:00	85.6%	58.7%	96.3%	90.0%	82.6%	71.3%
2026-09-30T06:00:00+00:00	85.0%	61.5%	37.3%	87.8%	—	0.0%
2026-09-30T12:00:00+00:00	87.4%	79.0%	96.8%	88.7%	85.1%	76.0%
2026-09-30T18:00:00+00:00	90.8%	77.9%	88.9%	78.9%	—	79.9%
2026-10-01T00:00:00+00:00	89.2%	87.0%	97.1%	90.5%	84.6%	82.8%
2026-10-01T06:00:00+00:00	93.5%	86.4%	96.6%	81.9%	—	80.8%
2026-10-01T12:00:00+00:00	94.8%	88.3%	99.3%	82.9%	92.3%	85.8%
2026-10-01T18:00:00+00:00	2.3%	94.2%	98.6%	81.9%	—	79.7%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
AIFS Single	99%	88.9°F	4.9°F	2026-09-26 06:00	0.0001
WeatherNext 2	91%	83.1°F	4.2°F	2026-09-26 00:00	0.0083
IFS Ensemble	79%	79.8°F	2.8°F	2026-09-26 00:00	0.0424
IFS HRES	77%	81.8°F	5.8°F	2026-09-26 00:00	0.0529
National Blend	68%	79.0°F	3.3°F	2026-09-26 06:00	0.1050
ICON	67%	80.1°F	5.8°F	2026-09-26 00:00	0.1076
NWS forecast	54%	78.0°F	5.1°F	2026-09-26 02:00	0.2125

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 78°F · KPHL

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KPHL-20261001-TMAX-GE78
Opened Sep 26 · 02:26 UTC

Original listing: Philadelphia high ≥ 78°F · Thu Oct 1

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗