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KPHL / Thu Oct 1 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Philadelphia, PAHigh ≥ 78°F

FINAL OUTCOMEYESSep 26 · 13:44 UTC
THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%
AIFS
99%
WN2
91%
EPS
79%
HRES
77%
ICON
67%
Consensus
84%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED
AIFSYES 83.0¢Risks 83.05u
VS
ICONNO 16.9¢Risks 16.95u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +16.95u · ICON −16.95u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

RecordedReconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

0%25%50%75%100%AIFS Single: 98.1% · 2026-09-26T02:26:11+00:00AIFS Single: 98.1% · 2026-09-26T03:11:41+00:00AIFS Single: 98.1% · 2026-09-26T03:56:54+00:00AIFS Single: 98.1% · 2026-09-26T04:42:00+00:00AIFS Single: 98.1% · 2026-09-26T05:27:15+00:00AIFS Single: 98.1% · 2026-09-26T06:12:23+00:00AIFS Single: 98.1% · 2026-09-26T06:57:29+00:00AIFS Single: 98.8% · 2026-09-26T07:42:41+00:00AIFS Single: 98.8% · 2026-09-26T08:28:38+00:00AIFS Single: 98.8% · 2026-09-26T09:13:44+00:00AIFS Single: 98.8% · 2026-09-26T09:58:50+00:00AIFS Single: 98.8% · 2026-09-26T10:44:01+00:00AIFS Single: 98.8% · 2026-09-26T11:29:11+00:00AIFS Single: 98.8% · 2026-09-26T12:14:29+00:00AIFS Single: 98.8% · 2026-09-26T12:59:34+00:00AIFS Single: 98.9% · 2026-09-26T13:44:40+00:00IFS Ensemble: 66.6% · 2026-09-26T02:26:11+00:00IFS Ensemble: 66.6% · 2026-09-26T03:11:41+00:00IFS Ensemble: 66.6% · 2026-09-26T03:56:54+00:00IFS Ensemble: 66.6% · 2026-09-26T04:42:00+00:00IFS Ensemble: 66.6% · 2026-09-26T05:27:15+00:00IFS Ensemble: 66.6% · 2026-09-26T06:12:23+00:00IFS Ensemble: 66.6% · 2026-09-26T06:57:29+00:00IFS Ensemble: 66.6% · 2026-09-26T07:42:41+00:00IFS Ensemble: 66.6% · 2026-09-26T08:28:38+00:00IFS Ensemble: 66.6% · 2026-09-26T09:13:44+00:00IFS Ensemble: 66.6% · 2026-09-26T09:58:50+00:00IFS Ensemble: 66.6% · 2026-09-26T10:44:01+00:00IFS Ensemble: 79.4% · 2026-09-26T11:29:11+00:00IFS Ensemble: 79.4% · 2026-09-26T12:14:29+00:00IFS Ensemble: 79.4% · 2026-09-26T12:59:34+00:00IFS Ensemble: 79.4% · 2026-09-26T13:44:40+00:00WeatherNext 2: 91.7% · 2026-09-26T02:26:11+00:00WeatherNext 2: 91.7% · 2026-09-26T03:11:41+00:00WeatherNext 2: 91.7% · 2026-09-26T03:56:54+00:00WeatherNext 2: 91.7% · 2026-09-26T04:42:00+00:00WeatherNext 2: 93.0% · 2026-09-26T05:27:15+00:00WeatherNext 2: 93.0% · 2026-09-26T06:12:23+00:00WeatherNext 2: 93.0% · 2026-09-26T06:57:29+00:00WeatherNext 2: 93.0% · 2026-09-26T07:42:41+00:00WeatherNext 2: 93.0% · 2026-09-26T08:28:38+00:00WeatherNext 2: 93.0% · 2026-09-26T09:13:44+00:00WeatherNext 2: 93.0% · 2026-09-26T09:58:50+00:00WeatherNext 2: 93.0% · 2026-09-26T10:44:01+00:00WeatherNext 2: 90.9% · 2026-09-26T11:29:11+00:00WeatherNext 2: 90.9% · 2026-09-26T12:14:29+00:00WeatherNext 2: 90.9% · 2026-09-26T12:59:34+00:00WeatherNext 2: 90.9% · 2026-09-26T13:44:40+00:00IFS HRES: 68.5% · 2026-09-26T02:26:11+00:00IFS HRES: 68.5% · 2026-09-26T03:11:41+00:00IFS HRES: 68.5% · 2026-09-26T03:56:54+00:00IFS HRES: 68.5% · 2026-09-26T04:42:00+00:00IFS HRES: 68.5% · 2026-09-26T05:27:15+00:00IFS HRES: 68.5% · 2026-09-26T06:12:23+00:00IFS HRES: 68.5% · 2026-09-26T06:57:29+00:00IFS HRES: 77.0% · 2026-09-26T07:42:41+00:00IFS HRES: 77.0% · 2026-09-26T08:28:38+00:00IFS HRES: 77.0% · 2026-09-26T09:13:44+00:00IFS HRES: 77.0% · 2026-09-26T09:58:50+00:00IFS HRES: 77.0% · 2026-09-26T10:44:01+00:00IFS HRES: 77.0% · 2026-09-26T11:29:11+00:00IFS HRES: 77.0% · 2026-09-26T12:14:29+00:00IFS HRES: 77.0% · 2026-09-26T12:59:34+00:00IFS HRES: 77.0% · 2026-09-26T13:44:40+00:00ICON: 76.1% · 2026-09-26T02:26:11+00:00ICON: 76.1% · 2026-09-26T03:11:41+00:00ICON: 76.1% · 2026-09-26T03:56:54+00:00ICON: 67.2% · 2026-09-26T04:42:00+00:00ICON: 67.2% · 2026-09-26T05:27:15+00:00ICON: 67.2% · 2026-09-26T06:12:23+00:00ICON: 67.2% · 2026-09-26T06:57:29+00:00ICON: 67.2% · 2026-09-26T07:42:41+00:00ICON: 67.2% · 2026-09-26T08:28:38+00:00ICON: 67.2% · 2026-09-26T09:13:44+00:00ICON: 67.2% · 2026-09-26T09:58:50+00:00ICON: 67.2% · 2026-09-26T10:44:01+00:00ICON: 67.2% · 2026-09-26T11:29:11+00:00ICON: 67.2% · 2026-09-26T12:14:29+00:00ICON: 67.2% · 2026-09-26T12:59:34+00:00ICON: 67.2% · 2026-09-26T13:44:40+00:0009-26 02:2609-26 08:2809-26 13:44
AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON
2026-09-26T13:44:40+00:00 · UTC
View the forecast data
UTCAIFSEPSWN2HRESICON
2026-09-26T02:26:11+00:0098.1%66.6%91.7%68.5%76.1%
2026-09-26T03:11:41+00:0098.1%66.6%91.7%68.5%76.1%
2026-09-26T03:56:54+00:0098.1%66.6%91.7%68.5%76.1%
2026-09-26T04:42:00+00:0098.1%66.6%91.7%68.5%67.2%
2026-09-26T05:27:15+00:0098.1%66.6%93.0%68.5%67.2%
2026-09-26T06:12:23+00:0098.1%66.6%93.0%68.5%67.2%
2026-09-26T06:57:29+00:0098.1%66.6%93.0%68.5%67.2%
2026-09-26T07:42:41+00:0098.8%66.6%93.0%77.0%67.2%
2026-09-26T08:28:38+00:0098.8%66.6%93.0%77.0%67.2%
2026-09-26T09:13:44+00:0098.8%66.6%93.0%77.0%67.2%
2026-09-26T09:58:50+00:0098.8%66.6%93.0%77.0%67.2%
2026-09-26T10:44:01+00:0098.8%66.6%93.0%77.0%67.2%
2026-09-26T11:29:11+00:0098.8%79.4%90.9%77.0%67.2%
2026-09-26T12:14:29+00:0098.8%79.4%90.9%77.0%67.2%
2026-09-26T12:59:34+00:0098.8%79.4%90.9%77.0%67.2%
2026-09-26T13:44:40+00:0098.9%79.4%90.9%77.0%67.2%
THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODELYESMEANSPREAD σINITIALIZATION UTCBRIER ↓
AIFS Single99%88.9°F4.9°F2026-09-26 06:000.0001
WeatherNext 291%83.1°F4.2°F2026-09-26 00:000.0083
IFS Ensemble79%79.8°F2.8°F2026-09-26 00:000.0424
IFS HRES77%81.8°F5.8°F2026-09-26 00:000.0529
National Blend68%79.0°F3.3°F2026-09-26 06:000.1050
ICON67%80.1°F5.8°F2026-09-26 00:000.1076
NWS forecast54%78.0°F5.1°F2026-09-26 02:000.2125

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 78°F · KPHL

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KPHL-20261001-TMAX-GE78
Opened Sep 26 · 02:26 UTC

Original listing: Philadelphia high ≥ 78°F · Thu Oct 1

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗