KPHL / Thu Oct 1 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Philadelphia, PAHigh ≥ 80°F

FINAL OUTCOMEYESOct 01 · 06:57 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

92%

79%

71%

51%

40%

Consensus

75%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 65.8¢Risks 65.80u

ICONNO 34.2¢Risks 34.20u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +34.20u · ICON −34.20u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-01T06:57:22+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-09-24T07:27:33+00:00	52.9%	46.3%	70.6%	50.0%	25.7%
2026-09-24T08:13:22+00:00	52.9%	46.3%	70.6%	50.0%	25.7%
2026-09-24T08:58:35+00:00	52.9%	46.3%	70.6%	50.0%	25.7%
2026-09-24T09:43:40+00:00	52.9%	46.3%	70.6%	50.0%	25.7%
2026-09-24T10:28:44+00:00	52.9%	46.3%	70.6%	50.0%	25.7%
2026-09-24T11:13:49+00:00	52.9%	48.9%	74.0%	50.0%	25.7%
2026-09-24T11:58:56+00:00	52.9%	48.9%	74.0%	50.0%	25.7%
2026-09-24T12:44:01+00:00	52.9%	48.9%	74.0%	50.0%	25.7%
2026-09-24T13:29:07+00:00	75.8%	48.9%	74.0%	50.0%	25.7%
2026-09-24T14:16:39+00:00	75.2%	48.9%	73.8%	50.0%	25.7%
2026-09-24T15:01:46+00:00	75.2%	47.7%	73.8%	50.0%	25.7%
2026-09-24T15:47:14+00:00	75.2%	47.7%	73.8%	50.0%	25.7%
2026-09-24T16:32:26+00:00	75.2%	47.7%	73.8%	50.0%	25.7%
2026-09-24T17:17:31+00:00	75.2%	47.7%	67.5%	50.0%	25.7%
2026-09-24T18:02:37+00:00	75.2%	47.7%	67.5%	50.0%	25.7%
2026-09-24T18:47:42+00:00	75.2%	47.7%	67.5%	50.0%	25.7%
2026-09-24T19:32:50+00:00	84.3%	47.7%	67.5%	50.0%	80.4%
2026-09-24T20:17:59+00:00	84.3%	47.7%	67.5%	50.0%	80.4%
2026-09-24T21:03:05+00:00	84.3%	47.7%	67.5%	50.0%	80.4%
2026-09-24T21:48:10+00:00	84.3%	47.7%	67.5%	50.0%	80.4%
2026-09-24T22:33:15+00:00	84.3%	47.7%	67.5%	72.5%	80.4%
2026-09-24T23:18:22+00:00	84.3%	47.7%	73.1%	72.5%	80.4%
2026-09-25T00:03:28+00:00	84.3%	47.7%	73.1%	72.5%	80.4%
2026-09-25T00:48:37+00:00	84.3%	47.7%	73.1%	72.5%	80.4%
2026-09-25T01:33:48+00:00	91.7%	47.7%	73.1%	72.5%	80.4%
2026-09-25T02:18:57+00:00	91.7%	47.7%	73.1%	72.5%	80.4%
2026-09-25T03:04:06+00:00	91.7%	47.7%	73.1%	72.5%	80.4%
2026-09-25T03:49:44+00:00	91.7%	47.7%	73.1%	72.5%	80.4%
2026-09-25T04:34:48+00:00	91.7%	47.7%	73.1%	72.5%	74.7%
2026-09-25T05:19:55+00:00	91.7%	47.7%	75.1%	72.5%	74.7%
2026-09-25T06:05:03+00:00	91.7%	47.7%	75.1%	72.5%	74.7%
2026-09-25T06:50:08+00:00	91.7%	47.7%	75.1%	72.5%	74.7%
2026-09-25T07:35:16+00:00	88.9%	47.7%	75.1%	72.5%	74.7%
2026-09-25T08:20:22+00:00	88.9%	47.7%	75.1%	72.5%	74.7%
2026-09-25T09:05:28+00:00	88.9%	47.7%	75.1%	72.5%	74.7%
2026-09-25T09:50:33+00:00	88.9%	47.7%	75.1%	72.5%	74.7%
2026-09-25T10:35:38+00:00	88.9%	47.7%	75.1%	72.5%	74.7%
2026-09-25T11:20:44+00:00	88.9%	38.8%	75.1%	72.5%	74.7%
2026-09-25T12:05:50+00:00	88.9%	38.8%	75.1%	72.5%	74.7%
2026-09-25T12:50:56+00:00	88.9%	38.8%	75.1%	72.5%	74.7%
2026-09-25T13:36:01+00:00	95.1%	38.8%	75.1%	72.5%	74.7%
2026-09-25T14:23:03+00:00	95.1%	38.8%	75.1%	72.4%	74.7%
2026-09-25T15:08:09+00:00	95.1%	38.8%	75.1%	72.4%	74.7%
2026-09-25T15:53:16+00:00	95.1%	38.8%	75.1%	72.4%	74.7%
2026-09-25T16:38:21+00:00	95.1%	38.8%	75.1%	72.4%	66.3%
2026-09-25T17:23:28+00:00	95.1%	38.8%	81.1%	72.4%	66.3%
2026-09-25T18:08:37+00:00	95.1%	38.8%	81.1%	72.4%	66.3%
2026-09-25T18:54:06+00:00	95.1%	38.8%	81.1%	72.4%	66.3%
2026-09-25T19:39:16+00:00	96.1%	38.8%	81.1%	57.2%	66.3%
2026-09-25T20:25:15+00:00	96.1%	38.8%	81.1%	57.2%	66.3%
2026-09-25T21:10:21+00:00	96.1%	38.8%	81.1%	57.2%	66.3%
2026-09-25T21:55:26+00:00	96.1%	38.8%	81.1%	57.2%	66.3%
2026-09-25T22:40:31+00:00	96.1%	38.8%	81.1%	57.2%	66.3%
2026-09-25T23:25:36+00:00	96.1%	38.8%	82.8%	57.2%	66.3%
2026-09-26T00:10:42+00:00	96.1%	38.8%	82.8%	57.2%	66.3%
2026-09-26T00:55:50+00:00	96.1%	38.8%	82.8%	57.2%	66.3%
2026-09-26T01:41:01+00:00	95.6%	38.8%	82.8%	57.2%	66.3%
2026-09-26T14:32:00+00:00	97.1%	54.3%	80.4%	65.4%	54.1%
2026-09-26T15:17:28+00:00	97.1%	57.1%	80.4%	65.4%	54.1%
2026-09-26T16:02:34+00:00	97.1%	57.1%	80.4%	65.4%	54.1%
2026-09-26T16:47:40+00:00	97.1%	57.1%	80.4%	65.4%	77.0%
2026-09-26T17:32:48+00:00	97.1%	57.1%	80.4%	65.4%	77.0%
2026-09-26T18:17:55+00:00	97.1%	57.1%	80.4%	65.4%	77.0%
2026-09-26T19:03:06+00:00	97.1%	57.1%	80.4%	65.4%	77.0%
2026-09-26T19:48:15+00:00	95.2%	57.1%	80.4%	52.7%	77.0%
2026-09-26T20:33:25+00:00	95.2%	57.1%	80.4%	52.7%	77.0%
2026-09-26T21:18:31+00:00	95.2%	57.1%	80.4%	52.7%	77.0%
2026-09-26T22:03:36+00:00	95.2%	57.1%	80.4%	52.7%	77.0%
2026-09-26T22:48:41+00:00	95.2%	57.1%	80.4%	52.7%	77.0%
2026-09-26T23:33:53+00:00	95.2%	57.1%	81.1%	52.7%	77.0%
2026-09-27T00:19:01+00:00	95.2%	57.1%	81.1%	52.7%	77.0%
2026-09-27T01:04:10+00:00	95.2%	57.1%	81.1%	52.7%	77.0%
2026-09-27T01:49:22+00:00	95.2%	57.1%	81.1%	52.7%	77.0%
2026-09-27T02:34:30+00:00	95.7%	57.1%	81.1%	52.7%	77.0%
2026-09-27T03:19:37+00:00	95.7%	57.1%	81.1%	52.7%	77.0%
2026-09-27T04:05:12+00:00	95.7%	57.1%	81.1%	52.7%	77.0%
2026-09-27T04:50:17+00:00	95.7%	57.1%	81.1%	52.7%	70.1%
2026-09-27T05:35:25+00:00	95.7%	57.1%	83.0%	52.7%	70.1%
2026-09-27T06:20:36+00:00	95.7%	57.1%	83.0%	52.7%	70.1%
2026-09-27T07:05:42+00:00	95.7%	57.1%	83.0%	52.7%	70.1%
2026-09-27T07:50:52+00:00	96.0%	57.1%	83.0%	72.5%	70.1%
2026-09-27T08:36:48+00:00	96.0%	57.1%	83.0%	72.5%	70.1%
2026-09-27T09:21:57+00:00	96.0%	57.1%	83.0%	72.5%	70.1%
2026-09-27T10:07:03+00:00	96.0%	57.1%	83.0%	72.5%	70.1%
2026-09-27T10:52:07+00:00	96.0%	57.1%	83.0%	72.5%	70.1%
2026-09-27T11:37:13+00:00	96.0%	61.8%	84.5%	72.5%	70.1%
2026-09-27T12:22:24+00:00	96.0%	61.8%	84.5%	72.5%	70.1%
2026-09-27T13:07:29+00:00	96.0%	61.8%	84.5%	72.5%	70.1%
2026-09-27T13:52:37+00:00	95.6%	61.8%	84.5%	72.5%	70.9%
2026-10-01T03:11:10+00:00	91.7%	51.3%	76.6%	71.3%	39.9%
2026-10-01T03:57:02+00:00	91.7%	51.3%	76.6%	71.3%	39.9%
2026-10-01T04:42:07+00:00	91.7%	51.3%	76.6%	71.3%	39.9%
2026-10-01T05:27:12+00:00	91.7%	51.3%	79.2%	71.3%	39.9%
2026-10-01T06:12:17+00:00	91.7%	51.3%	79.2%	71.3%	39.9%
2026-10-01T06:57:22+00:00	91.7%	51.3%	79.2%	71.3%	39.9%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
AIFS Single	92%	85.1°F	4.0°F	2026-09-30 18:00	0.0069
National Blend	88%	82.1°F	2.2°F	2026-10-01 00:00	0.0146
WeatherNext 2	79%	82.3°F	3.4°F	2026-09-30 18:00	0.0433
IFS HRES	71%	81.6°F	3.7°F	2026-09-30 12:00	0.0824
NWS forecast	59%	80.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-01 02:00	0.1681
IFS Ensemble	51%	79.6°F	3.2°F	2026-09-30 00:00	0.2372
ICON	40%	78.6°F	3.5°F	2026-09-30 12:00	0.3612

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 80°F · KPHL

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KPHL-20261001-TMAX-GE80
Opened Sep 24 · 07:27 UTC

Original listing: Philadelphia high ≥ 80°F · Thu Oct 1

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗