KPHL / Thu Oct 1 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Philadelphia, PAHigh ≥ 80°F

FINAL OUTCOMEYESOct 01 · 06:57 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

92%

79%

71%

51%

40%

Consensus

75%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 65.8¢Risks 65.80u

ICONNO 34.2¢Risks 34.20u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +34.20u · ICON −34.20u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-01T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-09-16T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-16T12:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	—	2.7%
2026-09-16T18:00:00+00:00	17.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-17T00:00:00+00:00	63.6%	—	—	—	—	22.4%
2026-09-17T06:00:00+00:00	26.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-17T12:00:00+00:00	35.4%	—	—	—	—	20.1%
2026-09-17T18:00:00+00:00	11.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-18T00:00:00+00:00	31.6%	—	—	—	—	22.8%
2026-09-18T06:00:00+00:00	21.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-18T12:00:00+00:00	45.2%	—	—	—	—	17.5%
2026-09-18T18:00:00+00:00	30.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-19T00:00:00+00:00	19.3%	—	—	—	—	17.5%
2026-09-19T06:00:00+00:00	39.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-19T12:00:00+00:00	4.9%	—	—	—	—	18.2%
2026-09-19T18:00:00+00:00	30.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-20T00:00:00+00:00	22.8%	—	—	—	—	21.6%
2026-09-20T06:00:00+00:00	5.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-20T12:00:00+00:00	12.2%	—	—	—	—	20.3%
2026-09-20T18:00:00+00:00	12.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-21T00:00:00+00:00	58.2%	—	—	—	—	19.2%
2026-09-21T06:00:00+00:00	68.3%	—	8.9%	—	—	—
2026-09-21T12:00:00+00:00	58.5%	—	—	—	—	18.9%
2026-09-21T18:00:00+00:00	43.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-22T00:00:00+00:00	74.6%	—	30.3%	—	—	27.3%
2026-09-22T06:00:00+00:00	35.4%	—	81.1%	—	—	—
2026-09-22T12:00:00+00:00	63.7%	—	16.5%	—	—	33.0%
2026-09-22T18:00:00+00:00	59.2%	—	8.9%	—	—	—
2026-09-23T00:00:00+00:00	22.0%	—	68.2%	—	—	38.2%
2026-09-23T06:00:00+00:00	81.5%	—	83.2%	—	—	—
2026-09-23T12:00:00+00:00	71.6%	—	25.7%	—	—	44.8%
2026-09-23T18:00:00+00:00	42.1%	—	20.8%	—	—	—
2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00	27.1%	3.9%	31.8%	—	—	45.3%
2026-09-24T06:00:00+00:00	49.3%	—	84.6%	—	—	—
2026-09-24T12:00:00+00:00	63.1%	—	93.7%	10.2%	—	50.0%
2026-09-24T18:00:00+00:00	75.8%	—	58.5%	—	—	—
2026-09-25T00:00:00+00:00	69.0%	60.8%	69.6%	32.3%	—	42.0%
2026-09-25T06:00:00+00:00	82.6%	—	86.6%	—	—	—
2026-09-25T12:00:00+00:00	85.8%	48.5%	49.2%	20.0%	—	46.9%
2026-09-25T18:00:00+00:00	85.0%	—	64.5%	—	—	—
2026-09-26T00:00:00+00:00	86.0%	37.5%	40.5%	51.6%	—	46.8%
2026-09-26T06:00:00+00:00	87.8%	6.2%	75.0%	—	—	—
2026-09-26T12:00:00+00:00	82.2%	67.0%	43.4%	69.2%	—	47.5%
2026-09-26T18:00:00+00:00	84.3%	42.4%	87.2%	—	—	0.1%
2026-09-27T00:00:00+00:00	82.8%	60.4%	86.9%	53.5%	—	52.6%
2026-09-27T06:00:00+00:00	82.2%	58.9%	87.0%	—	—	—
2026-09-27T12:00:00+00:00	80.4%	60.0%	88.1%	64.4%	—	56.4%
2026-09-27T18:00:00+00:00	84.6%	53.8%	88.2%	—	—	57.5%
2026-09-28T00:00:00+00:00	79.7%	62.4%	89.3%	58.7%	—	56.8%
2026-09-28T06:00:00+00:00	79.6%	62.8%	90.0%	—	—	0.0%
2026-09-28T12:00:00+00:00	82.4%	57.2%	87.2%	66.0%	—	57.2%
2026-09-28T18:00:00+00:00	81.7%	39.5%	75.5%	—	—	—
2026-09-29T00:00:00+00:00	62.9%	9.9%	79.4%	63.9%	—	38.2%
2026-09-29T06:00:00+00:00	71.4%	3.5%	89.3%	0.1%	—	35.7%
2026-09-29T12:00:00+00:00	77.6%	5.4%	51.2%	68.0%	54.6%	52.3%
2026-09-29T18:00:00+00:00	71.7%	10.2%	6.2%	67.5%	—	—
2026-09-30T00:00:00+00:00	66.9%	34.2%	87.6%	74.4%	62.3%	47.5%
2026-09-30T06:00:00+00:00	65.1%	36.1%	16.6%	69.8%	—	0.0%
2026-09-30T12:00:00+00:00	68.1%	55.4%	88.0%	70.5%	64.4%	51.3%
2026-09-30T18:00:00+00:00	73.5%	52.8%	70.0%	54.2%	—	55.6%
2026-10-01T00:00:00+00:00	69.5%	65.5%	87.8%	72.0%	61.4%	58.6%
2026-10-01T06:00:00+00:00	77.6%	63.3%	85.6%	56.0%	—	54.5%
2026-10-01T12:00:00+00:00	79.7%	65.4%	95.2%	56.3%	73.7%	60.9%
2026-10-01T18:00:00+00:00	0.2%	77.2%	91.4%	53.3%	—	50.0%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
AIFS Single	92%	85.1°F	4.0°F	2026-09-30 18:00	0.0069
National Blend	88%	82.1°F	2.2°F	2026-10-01 00:00	0.0146
WeatherNext 2	79%	82.3°F	3.4°F	2026-09-30 18:00	0.0433
IFS HRES	71%	81.6°F	3.7°F	2026-09-30 12:00	0.0824
NWS forecast	59%	80.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-01 02:00	0.1681
IFS Ensemble	51%	79.6°F	3.2°F	2026-09-30 00:00	0.2372
ICON	40%	78.6°F	3.5°F	2026-09-30 12:00	0.3612

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 80°F · KPHL

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KPHL-20261001-TMAX-GE80
Opened Sep 24 · 07:27 UTC

Original listing: Philadelphia high ≥ 80°F · Thu Oct 1

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗