Philadelphia, PAHigh ≥ 82°F
Who takes which side?
Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.
Head-to-head preview
ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.
AIFS +49.10u · ICON −49.10u
These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →
Probability history
Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.
View the forecast data
| UTC | AIFS | EPS | WN2 | HRES | ICON |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-24T07:27:34+00:00 | 38.7% | 24.0% | 56.1% | 37.6% | 19.6% |
| 2026-09-24T08:13:22+00:00 | 38.7% | 24.0% | 56.1% | 37.6% | 19.6% |
| 2026-09-24T08:58:35+00:00 | 38.7% | 24.0% | 56.1% | 37.6% | 19.6% |
| 2026-09-24T09:43:40+00:00 | 38.7% | 24.0% | 56.1% | 37.6% | 19.6% |
| 2026-09-24T10:28:44+00:00 | 38.7% | 24.0% | 56.1% | 37.6% | 19.6% |
| 2026-09-24T11:13:49+00:00 | 38.7% | 27.4% | 59.0% | 37.6% | 19.6% |
| 2026-09-24T11:58:56+00:00 | 38.7% | 27.4% | 59.0% | 37.6% | 19.6% |
| 2026-09-24T12:44:01+00:00 | 38.7% | 27.4% | 59.0% | 37.6% | 19.6% |
| 2026-09-24T13:29:07+00:00 | 63.4% | 27.4% | 59.0% | 37.6% | 19.6% |
| 2026-09-24T14:16:39+00:00 | 62.7% | 27.4% | 59.0% | 37.7% | 19.6% |
| 2026-09-24T15:01:46+00:00 | 62.7% | 25.9% | 59.0% | 37.7% | 19.6% |
| 2026-09-24T15:47:14+00:00 | 62.7% | 25.9% | 59.0% | 37.7% | 19.6% |
| 2026-09-24T16:32:26+00:00 | 62.7% | 25.9% | 59.0% | 37.7% | 19.6% |
| 2026-09-24T17:17:31+00:00 | 62.7% | 25.9% | 51.6% | 37.7% | 19.6% |
| 2026-09-24T18:02:37+00:00 | 62.7% | 25.9% | 51.6% | 37.7% | 19.6% |
| 2026-09-24T18:47:42+00:00 | 62.7% | 25.9% | 51.6% | 37.7% | 19.6% |
| 2026-09-24T19:32:51+00:00 | 74.1% | 25.9% | 51.6% | 37.7% | 74.3% |
| 2026-09-24T20:17:59+00:00 | 74.1% | 25.9% | 51.6% | 37.7% | 74.3% |
| 2026-09-24T21:03:05+00:00 | 74.1% | 25.9% | 51.6% | 37.7% | 74.3% |
| 2026-09-24T21:48:10+00:00 | 74.1% | 25.9% | 51.6% | 37.7% | 74.3% |
| 2026-09-24T22:33:15+00:00 | 74.1% | 25.9% | 51.6% | 61.1% | 74.3% |
| 2026-09-24T23:18:22+00:00 | 74.1% | 26.5% | 58.2% | 61.1% | 74.3% |
| 2026-09-25T00:03:28+00:00 | 74.1% | 26.5% | 58.2% | 61.1% | 74.3% |
| 2026-09-25T00:48:37+00:00 | 74.1% | 26.5% | 58.2% | 61.1% | 74.3% |
| 2026-09-25T01:33:48+00:00 | 84.7% | 26.5% | 58.2% | 61.1% | 74.3% |
| 2026-09-25T02:18:57+00:00 | 84.7% | 26.5% | 58.2% | 61.1% | 74.3% |
| 2026-09-25T03:04:06+00:00 | 84.7% | 26.5% | 58.2% | 61.1% | 74.3% |
| 2026-09-25T03:49:44+00:00 | 84.7% | 26.5% | 58.2% | 61.1% | 74.3% |
| 2026-09-25T04:34:48+00:00 | 84.7% | 26.5% | 58.2% | 61.1% | 64.6% |
| 2026-09-25T05:19:55+00:00 | 84.7% | 26.5% | 60.5% | 61.1% | 64.6% |
| 2026-09-25T06:05:03+00:00 | 84.7% | 26.5% | 60.5% | 61.1% | 64.6% |
| 2026-09-25T06:50:08+00:00 | 84.7% | 26.5% | 60.5% | 61.1% | 64.6% |
| 2026-09-25T07:35:16+00:00 | 80.1% | 26.5% | 60.5% | 61.1% | 64.6% |
| 2026-09-25T08:20:22+00:00 | 80.1% | 26.5% | 60.5% | 61.1% | 64.6% |
| 2026-09-25T09:05:28+00:00 | 80.1% | 26.5% | 60.5% | 61.1% | 64.6% |
| 2026-09-25T09:50:33+00:00 | 80.1% | 26.5% | 60.5% | 61.1% | 64.6% |
| 2026-09-25T10:35:38+00:00 | 80.1% | 26.5% | 60.5% | 61.1% | 64.6% |
| 2026-09-25T11:20:44+00:00 | 80.1% | 15.9% | 60.5% | 61.1% | 64.6% |
| 2026-09-25T12:05:50+00:00 | 80.1% | 15.9% | 60.5% | 61.1% | 64.6% |
| 2026-09-25T12:50:56+00:00 | 80.1% | 15.9% | 60.5% | 61.1% | 64.6% |
| 2026-09-25T13:36:01+00:00 | 89.9% | 15.9% | 60.5% | 61.1% | 64.6% |
| 2026-09-25T14:23:03+00:00 | 89.9% | 15.9% | 60.5% | 61.1% | 64.7% |
| 2026-09-25T15:08:09+00:00 | 89.9% | 15.9% | 60.5% | 61.1% | 64.7% |
| 2026-09-25T15:53:16+00:00 | 89.9% | 15.9% | 60.5% | 61.1% | 64.7% |
| 2026-09-25T16:38:21+00:00 | 89.9% | 15.9% | 60.5% | 61.1% | 55.2% |
| 2026-09-25T17:23:28+00:00 | 89.9% | 15.9% | 67.0% | 61.1% | 55.2% |
| 2026-09-25T18:08:37+00:00 | 89.9% | 15.9% | 67.0% | 61.1% | 55.2% |
| 2026-09-25T18:54:06+00:00 | 89.9% | 15.9% | 67.0% | 61.1% | 55.2% |
| 2026-09-25T19:39:16+00:00 | 91.7% | 15.9% | 67.0% | 45.2% | 55.2% |
| 2026-09-25T20:25:15+00:00 | 91.7% | 15.9% | 67.0% | 45.2% | 55.2% |
| 2026-09-25T21:10:21+00:00 | 91.7% | 15.9% | 67.0% | 45.2% | 55.2% |
| 2026-09-25T21:55:26+00:00 | 91.7% | 15.9% | 67.0% | 45.2% | 55.2% |
| 2026-09-25T22:40:31+00:00 | 91.7% | 15.9% | 67.0% | 45.2% | 55.2% |
| 2026-09-25T23:25:36+00:00 | 91.7% | 15.9% | 69.4% | 45.2% | 55.2% |
| 2026-09-26T00:10:42+00:00 | 91.7% | 15.9% | 69.4% | 45.2% | 55.2% |
| 2026-09-26T00:55:50+00:00 | 91.7% | 15.9% | 69.4% | 45.2% | 55.2% |
| 2026-09-26T01:41:01+00:00 | 90.9% | 15.9% | 69.4% | 45.2% | 55.2% |
| 2026-09-26T02:26:11+00:00 | 90.9% | 15.9% | 69.4% | 45.2% | 55.2% |
| 2026-09-26T03:11:41+00:00 | 90.9% | 15.9% | 69.4% | 45.2% | 55.2% |
| 2026-09-26T03:56:54+00:00 | 90.9% | 15.9% | 69.4% | 45.2% | 55.2% |
| 2026-09-26T04:42:00+00:00 | 90.9% | 15.9% | 69.4% | 45.2% | 40.5% |
| 2026-09-26T05:27:15+00:00 | 90.9% | 15.9% | 72.4% | 45.2% | 40.5% |
| 2026-09-26T06:12:23+00:00 | 90.9% | 15.9% | 72.4% | 45.2% | 40.5% |
| 2026-09-26T06:57:29+00:00 | 90.9% | 15.9% | 72.4% | 45.2% | 40.5% |
| 2026-09-26T07:42:41+00:00 | 92.8% | 15.9% | 72.4% | 52.1% | 40.5% |
| 2026-09-26T08:28:38+00:00 | 92.8% | 15.9% | 72.4% | 52.1% | 40.5% |
| 2026-09-26T09:13:44+00:00 | 92.8% | 15.9% | 72.4% | 52.1% | 40.5% |
| 2026-09-26T09:58:50+00:00 | 92.8% | 15.9% | 72.4% | 52.1% | 40.5% |
| 2026-09-26T10:44:01+00:00 | 92.8% | 15.9% | 72.4% | 52.1% | 40.5% |
| 2026-09-26T11:29:11+00:00 | 92.8% | 27.2% | 64.8% | 52.1% | 40.5% |
| 2026-09-26T12:14:29+00:00 | 92.8% | 27.2% | 64.8% | 52.1% | 40.5% |
| 2026-09-26T12:59:34+00:00 | 92.8% | 27.2% | 64.8% | 52.1% | 40.5% |
| 2026-09-26T13:44:40+00:00 | 93.3% | 27.2% | 64.8% | 52.1% | 40.5% |
| 2026-09-26T14:32:00+00:00 | 93.3% | 27.2% | 64.8% | 52.1% | 40.5% |
| 2026-09-26T15:17:28+00:00 | 93.3% | 29.6% | 64.8% | 52.1% | 40.5% |
| 2026-09-26T16:02:34+00:00 | 93.3% | 29.6% | 64.8% | 52.1% | 40.5% |
| 2026-09-26T16:47:40+00:00 | 93.3% | 29.6% | 64.8% | 52.1% | 65.3% |
| 2026-09-26T17:32:48+00:00 | 93.3% | 29.6% | 64.8% | 52.1% | 65.3% |
| 2026-09-26T18:17:55+00:00 | 93.3% | 29.6% | 64.8% | 52.1% | 65.3% |
| 2026-09-26T19:03:06+00:00 | 93.3% | 29.6% | 64.8% | 52.1% | 65.3% |
| 2026-09-26T19:48:15+00:00 | 89.5% | 29.6% | 64.8% | 39.2% | 65.3% |
| 2026-09-26T20:33:25+00:00 | 89.5% | 29.6% | 64.8% | 39.2% | 65.3% |
| 2026-09-26T21:18:31+00:00 | 89.5% | 29.6% | 64.8% | 39.2% | 65.3% |
| 2026-09-26T22:03:36+00:00 | 89.5% | 29.6% | 64.8% | 39.2% | 65.3% |
| 2026-09-26T22:48:41+00:00 | 89.5% | 29.6% | 64.8% | 39.2% | 65.3% |
| 2026-09-26T23:33:53+00:00 | 89.5% | 29.6% | 65.7% | 39.2% | 65.3% |
| 2026-09-27T00:19:01+00:00 | 89.5% | 29.6% | 65.7% | 39.2% | 65.3% |
| 2026-09-27T01:04:10+00:00 | 89.5% | 29.6% | 65.7% | 39.2% | 65.3% |
| 2026-09-27T01:49:22+00:00 | 89.5% | 29.6% | 65.7% | 39.2% | 65.3% |
| 2026-09-27T02:34:30+00:00 | 90.6% | 29.6% | 65.7% | 39.2% | 65.3% |
| 2026-09-27T03:19:37+00:00 | 90.6% | 29.6% | 65.7% | 39.2% | 65.3% |
| 2026-09-27T04:05:12+00:00 | 90.6% | 29.6% | 65.7% | 39.2% | 65.3% |
| 2026-09-27T04:50:17+00:00 | 90.6% | 29.6% | 65.7% | 39.2% | 54.2% |
| 2026-09-27T05:35:25+00:00 | 90.6% | 29.6% | 68.3% | 39.2% | 54.2% |
| 2026-09-27T06:20:36+00:00 | 90.6% | 29.6% | 68.3% | 39.2% | 54.2% |
| 2026-09-27T07:05:42+00:00 | 90.6% | 29.6% | 68.3% | 39.2% | 54.2% |
| 2026-09-27T07:50:52+00:00 | 90.6% | 29.6% | 68.3% | 57.9% | 54.2% |
| 2026-09-27T08:36:48+00:00 | 90.6% | 29.6% | 68.3% | 57.9% | 54.2% |
| 2026-09-27T09:21:57+00:00 | 90.6% | 29.6% | 68.3% | 57.9% | 54.2% |
| 2026-09-27T10:07:03+00:00 | 90.6% | 29.6% | 68.3% | 57.9% | 54.2% |
| 2026-09-27T10:52:07+00:00 | 90.6% | 29.6% | 68.3% | 57.9% | 54.2% |
| 2026-09-27T11:37:13+00:00 | 90.6% | 35.7% | 69.4% | 57.9% | 54.2% |
| 2026-09-27T12:22:24+00:00 | 90.6% | 35.7% | 69.4% | 57.9% | 54.2% |
| 2026-09-27T13:07:29+00:00 | 90.6% | 35.7% | 69.4% | 57.9% | 54.2% |
| 2026-09-27T13:52:37+00:00 | 89.8% | 35.7% | 69.4% | 57.9% | 55.0% |
| 2026-09-27T14:39:59+00:00 | 89.8% | 35.7% | 69.4% | 57.9% | 55.0% |
| 2026-09-27T15:25:27+00:00 | 89.8% | 33.2% | 69.4% | 57.9% | 55.0% |
| 2026-09-27T16:10:32+00:00 | 89.8% | 33.2% | 69.4% | 57.9% | 55.0% |
| 2026-09-27T16:55:37+00:00 | 89.8% | 33.2% | 67.6% | 57.9% | 54.2% |
| 2026-09-27T17:40:46+00:00 | 89.8% | 33.2% | 67.6% | 57.9% | 54.2% |
| 2026-09-27T18:25:52+00:00 | 89.8% | 33.2% | 67.6% | 57.9% | 54.2% |
| 2026-09-27T19:11:07+00:00 | 89.8% | 33.2% | 67.6% | 57.9% | 54.2% |
| 2026-09-27T19:56:15+00:00 | 88.2% | 33.2% | 67.6% | 53.2% | 54.2% |
| 2026-09-27T20:41:23+00:00 | 88.2% | 33.2% | 67.6% | 53.2% | 54.2% |
| 2026-09-27T21:26:31+00:00 | 88.2% | 33.2% | 67.6% | 53.2% | 54.2% |
| 2026-09-27T22:11:35+00:00 | 88.2% | 33.2% | 67.6% | 53.2% | 54.2% |
| 2026-09-27T22:56:40+00:00 | 88.2% | 33.2% | 66.7% | 53.2% | 54.2% |
| 2026-09-27T23:41:49+00:00 | 88.2% | 33.2% | 66.7% | 53.2% | 54.2% |
| 2026-09-28T00:26:54+00:00 | 88.2% | 33.2% | 66.7% | 53.2% | 54.2% |
| 2026-09-28T01:12:03+00:00 | 88.2% | 33.2% | 66.7% | 53.2% | 54.2% |
| 2026-09-28T01:57:09+00:00 | 90.6% | 33.2% | 66.7% | 53.2% | 54.2% |
| 2026-09-28T02:42:16+00:00 | 90.6% | 33.2% | 66.7% | 53.2% | 54.2% |
| 2026-09-28T03:27:22+00:00 | 90.6% | 33.2% | 66.7% | 53.2% | 54.2% |
| 2026-09-28T04:13:27+00:00 | 90.6% | 33.2% | 66.7% | 53.2% | 54.2% |
| 2026-09-28T04:58:32+00:00 | 90.6% | 33.2% | 66.7% | 53.2% | 48.0% |
| 2026-09-28T05:43:40+00:00 | 90.6% | 33.2% | 66.7% | 53.2% | 48.0% |
| 2026-09-28T06:28:52+00:00 | 90.6% | 33.2% | 66.7% | 53.2% | 48.0% |
| 2026-09-28T07:13:59+00:00 | 90.6% | 33.2% | 66.7% | 53.2% | 48.0% |
| 2026-09-28T07:59:11+00:00 | 88.3% | 33.2% | 66.7% | 38.6% | 48.0% |
| 2026-09-28T08:45:26+00:00 | 88.3% | 33.2% | 66.7% | 38.6% | 48.0% |
| 2026-09-28T09:30:32+00:00 | 88.3% | 33.2% | 66.7% | 38.6% | 48.0% |
| 2026-09-28T10:15:37+00:00 | 88.3% | 33.2% | 66.7% | 38.6% | 48.0% |
| 2026-09-28T11:00:43+00:00 | 88.3% | 36.2% | 62.7% | 38.6% | 48.0% |
| 2026-09-28T11:46:02+00:00 | 88.3% | 36.2% | 62.7% | 38.6% | 48.0% |
| 2026-09-28T12:31:11+00:00 | 88.3% | 36.2% | 62.7% | 38.6% | 48.0% |
| 2026-09-28T13:16:20+00:00 | 88.3% | 36.2% | 62.7% | 38.6% | 48.0% |
| 2026-09-28T14:01:26+00:00 | 88.3% | 36.2% | 62.7% | 38.6% | 48.0% |
| 2026-09-28T14:48:27+00:00 | 88.3% | 36.2% | 62.7% | 38.6% | 48.0% |
| 2026-09-28T15:34:00+00:00 | 88.3% | 34.7% | 62.7% | 38.6% | 48.0% |
| 2026-09-28T16:19:06+00:00 | 88.3% | 34.7% | 62.7% | 38.6% | 48.0% |
| 2026-09-28T17:04:12+00:00 | 88.3% | 34.7% | 65.7% | 38.6% | 41.9% |
| 2026-09-28T17:49:21+00:00 | 88.3% | 34.7% | 65.7% | 38.6% | 41.9% |
| 2026-09-28T18:34:27+00:00 | 88.3% | 34.7% | 65.7% | 38.6% | 41.9% |
| 2026-09-28T19:19:33+00:00 | 88.3% | 34.7% | 65.7% | 38.6% | 41.9% |
| 2026-09-28T20:04:42+00:00 | 89.2% | 34.7% | 65.7% | 53.5% | 41.9% |
| 2026-09-28T20:49:48+00:00 | 89.2% | 34.7% | 65.7% | 53.5% | 41.9% |
| 2026-09-28T21:34:53+00:00 | 89.2% | 34.7% | 65.7% | 53.5% | 41.9% |
| 2026-09-28T22:19:57+00:00 | 89.2% | 34.7% | 65.7% | 53.5% | 41.9% |
| 2026-09-28T23:05:02+00:00 | 89.2% | 34.7% | 63.7% | 53.5% | 41.9% |
| 2026-09-28T23:50:08+00:00 | 89.2% | 34.7% | 63.7% | 53.5% | 41.9% |
| 2026-09-29T00:35:15+00:00 | 89.2% | 34.7% | 63.7% | 53.5% | 41.9% |
| 2026-09-29T01:20:26+00:00 | 89.2% | 34.7% | 63.7% | 53.5% | 41.9% |
| 2026-09-29T02:05:34+00:00 | 88.3% | 34.7% | 63.7% | 53.5% | 41.9% |
| 2026-09-29T02:50:59+00:00 | 88.3% | 34.7% | 63.7% | 53.5% | 41.9% |
| 2026-09-29T03:36:05+00:00 | 88.3% | 34.7% | 63.7% | 53.5% | 41.9% |
| 2026-09-29T04:21:12+00:00 | 88.3% | 34.7% | 63.7% | 53.5% | 41.9% |
| 2026-09-29T05:06:52+00:00 | 88.3% | 34.7% | 66.7% | 53.5% | 2.2% |
| 2026-09-29T05:52:01+00:00 | 88.3% | 34.7% | 66.7% | 53.5% | 2.2% |
| 2026-09-29T06:37:07+00:00 | 88.3% | 34.7% | 66.7% | 53.5% | 2.2% |
| 2026-09-29T07:22:15+00:00 | 77.1% | 34.7% | 66.7% | 17.8% | 2.2% |
| 2026-09-29T08:08:11+00:00 | 77.1% | 34.7% | 66.7% | 17.8% | 2.2% |
| 2026-09-29T08:53:31+00:00 | 77.1% | 34.7% | 66.7% | 17.8% | 2.2% |
| 2026-09-29T09:38:36+00:00 | 77.1% | 34.7% | 66.7% | 17.8% | 2.2% |
| 2026-09-29T10:23:41+00:00 | 77.1% | 34.7% | 66.7% | 17.8% | 2.2% |
| 2026-09-29T11:08:46+00:00 | 77.1% | 23.4% | 66.7% | 17.8% | 2.2% |
| 2026-09-29T11:54:05+00:00 | 77.1% | 23.4% | 66.7% | 17.8% | 2.2% |
| 2026-09-29T12:39:09+00:00 | 77.1% | 23.4% | 66.7% | 17.8% | 2.2% |
| 2026-09-29T13:24:14+00:00 | 82.5% | 23.4% | 66.7% | 17.8% | 2.2% |
| 2026-09-29T14:11:38+00:00 | 82.0% | 23.4% | 66.7% | 17.8% | 2.2% |
| 2026-09-29T14:56:47+00:00 | 82.0% | 22.5% | 66.7% | 17.8% | 2.2% |
| 2026-09-29T15:42:08+00:00 | 82.0% | 22.5% | 66.7% | 17.8% | 2.2% |
| 2026-09-29T16:27:39+00:00 | 82.0% | 22.5% | 66.7% | 17.8% | 1.2% |
| 2026-09-29T17:12:48+00:00 | 82.0% | 22.5% | 66.4% | 17.8% | 1.2% |
| 2026-09-29T17:57:57+00:00 | 82.0% | 22.5% | 66.4% | 17.8% | 1.2% |
| 2026-09-29T18:43:04+00:00 | 82.0% | 22.5% | 66.4% | 17.8% | 1.2% |
| 2026-09-29T19:28:11+00:00 | 85.5% | 22.5% | 66.4% | 46.1% | 1.2% |
| 2026-09-29T20:13:30+00:00 | 85.5% | 22.5% | 66.4% | 46.1% | 1.2% |
| 2026-09-29T20:58:45+00:00 | 85.5% | 22.5% | 66.4% | 46.1% | 1.2% |
| 2026-09-29T21:43:53+00:00 | 85.5% | 22.5% | 66.4% | 46.1% | 1.2% |
| 2026-09-29T22:29:00+00:00 | 85.5% | 22.5% | 66.4% | 46.1% | 1.2% |
| 2026-09-29T23:14:08+00:00 | 85.5% | 22.5% | 61.1% | 46.1% | 1.2% |
| 2026-09-29T23:59:26+00:00 | 85.5% | 22.5% | 61.1% | 46.1% | 1.2% |
| 2026-09-30T00:44:31+00:00 | 85.5% | 22.5% | 61.1% | 46.1% | 1.2% |
| 2026-09-30T01:29:49+00:00 | 80.7% | 22.5% | 61.1% | 46.1% | 1.2% |
| 2026-09-30T02:14:57+00:00 | 80.7% | 22.5% | 61.1% | 46.1% | 1.2% |
| 2026-09-30T03:00:04+00:00 | 80.7% | 22.5% | 61.1% | 46.1% | 1.2% |
| 2026-09-30T03:45:20+00:00 | 80.7% | 22.5% | 61.1% | 46.1% | 1.2% |
| 2026-09-30T04:30:29+00:00 | 80.7% | 22.5% | 61.1% | 46.1% | 9.6% |
| 2026-09-30T05:16:18+00:00 | 80.7% | 22.5% | 63.2% | 46.1% | 9.6% |
| 2026-09-30T06:01:26+00:00 | 80.7% | 22.5% | 63.2% | 46.1% | 9.6% |
| 2026-09-30T06:46:33+00:00 | 80.7% | 22.5% | 63.2% | 46.1% | 9.6% |
| 2026-09-30T07:31:41+00:00 | 80.7% | 22.5% | 63.2% | 39.5% | 9.6% |
| 2026-09-30T08:18:09+00:00 | 80.7% | 22.5% | 63.2% | 39.5% | 9.6% |
| 2026-09-30T09:03:32+00:00 | 80.7% | 22.5% | 63.2% | 39.5% | 9.6% |
| 2026-09-30T09:48:38+00:00 | 80.7% | 22.5% | 63.2% | 39.5% | 9.6% |
| 2026-09-30T10:33:53+00:00 | 78.6% | 22.5% | 63.2% | 39.5% | 9.6% |
| 2026-09-30T11:19:56+00:00 | 78.6% | 27.6% | 59.2% | 39.5% | 9.6% |
| 2026-09-30T12:05:11+00:00 | 78.6% | 27.6% | 59.2% | 39.5% | 9.6% |
| 2026-09-30T12:50:18+00:00 | 78.6% | 27.6% | 59.2% | 39.5% | 9.6% |
| 2026-09-30T13:35:23+00:00 | 77.1% | 27.6% | 59.2% | 39.5% | 9.6% |
| 2026-09-30T14:23:07+00:00 | 77.1% | 27.6% | 59.2% | 39.5% | 9.5% |
| 2026-09-30T15:08:13+00:00 | 77.1% | 27.6% | 59.2% | 39.5% | 9.5% |
| 2026-09-30T15:53:20+00:00 | 77.1% | 27.6% | 59.2% | 39.5% | 9.5% |
| 2026-09-30T16:38:46+00:00 | 77.1% | 27.6% | 59.2% | 39.5% | 20.4% |
| 2026-09-30T17:23:55+00:00 | 77.1% | 27.6% | 58.1% | 39.5% | 20.4% |
| 2026-09-30T18:09:02+00:00 | 77.1% | 27.6% | 58.1% | 39.5% | 20.4% |
| 2026-09-30T18:54:11+00:00 | 77.1% | 27.6% | 58.1% | 39.5% | 20.4% |
| 2026-09-30T19:39:17+00:00 | 78.6% | 27.6% | 58.1% | 51.1% | 20.4% |
| 2026-09-30T20:24:31+00:00 | 78.6% | 27.6% | 58.1% | 51.1% | 20.4% |
| 2026-09-30T21:09:37+00:00 | 78.6% | 27.6% | 58.1% | 51.1% | 20.4% |
| 2026-09-30T21:54:42+00:00 | 78.6% | 27.6% | 58.1% | 51.1% | 20.4% |
| 2026-09-30T22:39:48+00:00 | 78.6% | 27.6% | 58.1% | 51.1% | 20.4% |
| 2026-09-30T23:24:54+00:00 | 78.6% | 27.6% | 55.8% | 51.1% | 20.4% |
| 2026-10-01T00:10:01+00:00 | 78.6% | 27.6% | 55.8% | 51.1% | 20.4% |
| 2026-10-01T00:55:48+00:00 | 78.6% | 27.6% | 55.8% | 51.1% | 20.4% |
| 2026-10-01T01:40:53+00:00 | 81.4% | 27.6% | 55.8% | 51.1% | 20.4% |
| 2026-10-01T02:26:02+00:00 | 81.4% | 27.6% | 55.8% | 51.1% | 20.4% |
| 2026-10-01T03:11:10+00:00 | 81.4% | 27.6% | 55.8% | 51.1% | 20.4% |
| 2026-10-01T03:57:02+00:00 | 81.4% | 27.6% | 55.8% | 51.1% | 20.4% |
| 2026-10-01T04:42:07+00:00 | 81.4% | 27.6% | 55.8% | 51.1% | 20.4% |
| 2026-10-01T05:27:12+00:00 | 81.4% | 27.6% | 59.2% | 51.1% | 20.4% |
| 2026-10-01T06:12:17+00:00 | 81.4% | 27.6% | 59.2% | 51.1% | 20.4% |
| 2026-10-01T06:57:22+00:00 | 81.4% | 27.6% | 59.2% | 51.1% | 20.4% |
Forecasts & evidence
| MODEL | YES | MEAN | SPREAD σ | INITIALIZATION UTC | BRIER ↓ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AIFS Single | 81% | 85.1°F | 4.0°F | 2026-09-30 18:00 | 0.0346 |
| National Blend | 61% | 82.1°F | 2.2°F | 2026-10-01 00:00 | 0.1544 |
| WeatherNext 2 | 59% | 82.3°F | 3.4°F | 2026-09-30 18:00 | 0.1665 |
| IFS HRES | 51% | 81.6°F | 3.7°F | 2026-09-30 12:00 | 0.2391 |
| IFS Ensemble | 28% | 79.6°F | 3.2°F | 2026-09-30 00:00 | 0.5242 |
| NWS forecast | 25% | 80.0°F | 2.2°F | 2026-10-01 02:00 | 0.5655 |
| ICON | 20% | 78.6°F | 3.5°F | 2026-09-30 12:00 | 0.6336 |
Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.
High ≥ 82°F · KPHL
Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.
WP-KPHL-20261001-TMAX-GE82
Opened Sep 24 · 07:27 UTC
Original listing: Philadelphia runs hot-for-here: 82°F+ · Thu Oct 1
Original prop, full history & receipt ↗