KPHL / Thu Oct 1 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Philadelphia, PAHigh ≥ 82°F

FINAL OUTCOMEYESOct 01 · 06:57 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

81%

59%

51%

28%

20%

Consensus

43%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 50.9¢Risks 50.90u

ICONNO 49.1¢Risks 49.10u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +49.10u · ICON −49.10u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-01T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-09-16T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-16T12:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	—	1.4%
2026-09-16T18:00:00+00:00	11.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-17T00:00:00+00:00	53.2%	—	—	—	—	15.2%
2026-09-17T06:00:00+00:00	18.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-17T12:00:00+00:00	26.1%	—	—	—	—	13.4%
2026-09-17T18:00:00+00:00	6.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-18T00:00:00+00:00	22.8%	—	—	—	—	15.6%
2026-09-18T06:00:00+00:00	14.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-18T12:00:00+00:00	34.9%	—	—	—	—	11.5%
2026-09-18T18:00:00+00:00	22.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-19T00:00:00+00:00	12.8%	—	—	—	—	11.5%
2026-09-19T06:00:00+00:00	29.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-19T12:00:00+00:00	2.7%	—	—	—	—	12.0%
2026-09-19T18:00:00+00:00	21.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-20T00:00:00+00:00	15.6%	—	—	—	—	14.6%
2026-09-20T06:00:00+00:00	3.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-20T12:00:00+00:00	7.6%	—	—	—	—	13.6%
2026-09-20T18:00:00+00:00	7.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-21T00:00:00+00:00	47.2%	—	—	—	—	12.6%
2026-09-21T06:00:00+00:00	57.8%	—	5.2%	—	—	—
2026-09-21T12:00:00+00:00	47.2%	—	—	—	—	12.2%
2026-09-21T18:00:00+00:00	32.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-22T00:00:00+00:00	64.3%	—	20.9%	—	—	18.5%
2026-09-22T06:00:00+00:00	25.1%	—	72.0%	—	—	—
2026-09-22T12:00:00+00:00	51.8%	—	10.1%	—	—	22.8%
2026-09-22T18:00:00+00:00	46.9%	—	4.9%	—	—	—
2026-09-23T00:00:00+00:00	13.9%	—	56.3%	—	—	27.0%
2026-09-23T06:00:00+00:00	71.8%	—	73.9%	—	—	—
2026-09-23T12:00:00+00:00	59.7%	—	16.4%	—	—	32.4%
2026-09-23T18:00:00+00:00	29.7%	—	12.6%	—	—	—
2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00	17.1%	1.8%	20.8%	—	—	32.4%
2026-09-24T06:00:00+00:00	35.8%	—	75.0%	—	—	—
2026-09-24T12:00:00+00:00	49.3%	—	88.1%	5.2%	—	36.2%
2026-09-24T18:00:00+00:00	63.4%	—	44.3%	—	—	—
2026-09-25T00:00:00+00:00	55.1%	46.4%	55.8%	20.4%	—	28.5%
2026-09-25T06:00:00+00:00	71.3%	—	76.8%	—	—	—
2026-09-25T12:00:00+00:00	75.5%	33.7%	34.4%	11.0%	—	32.3%
2026-09-25T18:00:00+00:00	74.1%	—	49.2%	—	—	—
2026-09-26T00:00:00+00:00	75.2%	23.6%	26.1%	35.9%	—	31.6%
2026-09-26T06:00:00+00:00	77.5%	2.6%	60.5%	—	—	—
2026-09-26T12:00:00+00:00	69.2%	50.8%	27.9%	53.3%	—	31.5%
2026-09-26T18:00:00+00:00	71.9%	26.7%	76.0%	—	—	0.0%
2026-09-27T00:00:00+00:00	69.3%	43.0%	75.2%	36.3%	—	35.4%
2026-09-27T06:00:00+00:00	68.2%	41.1%	75.0%	—	—	—
2026-09-27T12:00:00+00:00	65.3%	41.8%	76.3%	46.3%	—	38.2%
2026-09-27T18:00:00+00:00	70.8%	35.2%	76.2%	—	—	38.8%
2026-09-28T00:00:00+00:00	63.4%	43.2%	77.5%	39.4%	—	37.6%
2026-09-28T06:00:00+00:00	62.8%	43.0%	78.1%	—	—	0.0%
2026-09-28T12:00:00+00:00	66.0%	36.9%	73.2%	45.9%	—	36.9%
2026-09-28T18:00:00+00:00	64.5%	21.3%	56.3%	—	—	—
2026-09-29T00:00:00+00:00	41.3%	3.3%	60.8%	42.4%	—	19.8%
2026-09-29T06:00:00+00:00	50.0%	0.9%	75.1%	0.0%	—	17.5%
2026-09-29T12:00:00+00:00	57.0%	1.4%	28.9%	45.4%	32.0%	30.0%
2026-09-29T18:00:00+00:00	48.8%	3.1%	1.6%	44.0%	—	—
2026-09-30T00:00:00+00:00	42.6%	15.1%	70.2%	51.2%	37.7%	24.6%
2026-09-30T06:00:00+00:00	39.8%	15.8%	5.3%	44.9%	—	0.0%
2026-09-30T12:00:00+00:00	42.0%	29.5%	69.3%	44.6%	38.1%	26.2%
2026-09-30T18:00:00+00:00	47.2%	26.5%	43.1%	27.6%	—	28.8%
2026-10-01T00:00:00+00:00	41.4%	37.2%	66.9%	44.2%	33.1%	30.5%
2026-10-01T06:00:00+00:00	50.0%	33.8%	61.9%	27.2%	—	26.0%
2026-10-01T12:00:00+00:00	51.6%	34.6%	80.8%	26.3%	43.7%	30.3%
2026-10-01T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	46.7%	70.5%	22.8%	—	20.3%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
AIFS Single	81%	85.1°F	4.0°F	2026-09-30 18:00	0.0346
National Blend	61%	82.1°F	2.2°F	2026-10-01 00:00	0.1544
WeatherNext 2	59%	82.3°F	3.4°F	2026-09-30 18:00	0.1665
IFS HRES	51%	81.6°F	3.7°F	2026-09-30 12:00	0.2391
IFS Ensemble	28%	79.6°F	3.2°F	2026-09-30 00:00	0.5242
NWS forecast	25%	80.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-01 02:00	0.5655
ICON	20%	78.6°F	3.5°F	2026-09-30 12:00	0.6336

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 82°F · KPHL

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KPHL-20261001-TMAX-GE82
Opened Sep 24 · 07:27 UTC

Original listing: Philadelphia runs hot-for-here: 82°F+ · Thu Oct 1

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗