KPHL / Sat Oct 17 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Philadelphia, PAHigh ≤ 56°F

FINAL OUTCOMENOOct 14 · 10:32 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

<1%

Consensus

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 2.9¢Risks 0.74u

ICONNO 97.0¢Risks 24.26u

25 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +24.26u · ICON −24.26u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-14T10:32:05+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-13T08:02:32+00:00	14.4%	3.4%	17.6%	14.0%	1.2%
2026-10-13T08:49:38+00:00	14.4%	3.4%	17.6%	14.0%	1.2%
2026-10-13T09:34:43+00:00	14.4%	3.4%	17.6%	14.0%	1.2%
2026-10-13T10:19:51+00:00	14.4%	3.4%	17.6%	14.0%	1.2%
2026-10-13T11:05:09+00:00	14.4%	2.5%	6.0%	14.0%	1.2%
2026-10-13T11:50:33+00:00	14.4%	2.5%	6.0%	14.0%	1.2%
2026-10-13T12:35:47+00:00	14.4%	2.5%	6.0%	14.0%	1.2%
2026-10-13T13:20:53+00:00	14.4%	2.5%	6.0%	14.0%	1.2%
2026-10-13T14:05:59+00:00	13.9%	2.5%	5.9%	14.0%	1.3%
2026-10-13T14:56:01+00:00	13.9%	2.3%	5.9%	14.0%	1.3%
2026-10-13T15:41:12+00:00	13.9%	2.3%	5.9%	14.0%	1.3%
2026-10-13T16:27:00+00:00	13.9%	2.3%	5.9%	14.0%	1.3%
2026-10-13T17:12:07+00:00	13.9%	2.3%	4.5%	14.0%	1.3%
2026-10-13T17:57:15+00:00	13.9%	2.3%	4.5%	14.0%	1.3%
2026-10-13T18:42:21+00:00	13.9%	2.3%	4.5%	14.0%	1.3%
2026-10-13T19:27:26+00:00	17.5%	2.3%	4.5%	14.0%	0.4%
2026-10-13T20:12:32+00:00	17.5%	2.3%	4.5%	14.0%	0.4%
2026-10-13T20:57:40+00:00	17.5%	2.3%	4.5%	14.0%	0.4%
2026-10-13T21:42:53+00:00	17.5%	2.3%	4.5%	14.0%	0.4%
2026-10-13T22:28:22+00:00	17.5%	2.3%	4.5%	21.8%	0.4%
2026-10-13T23:13:31+00:00	17.5%	2.3%	5.9%	21.8%	0.4%
2026-10-13T23:58:42+00:00	17.5%	2.3%	5.9%	21.8%	0.4%
2026-10-14T00:43:51+00:00	17.5%	2.3%	5.9%	21.8%	0.4%
2026-10-14T01:29:06+00:00	3.9%	2.3%	5.9%	21.8%	0.4%
2026-10-14T02:14:16+00:00	3.9%	2.3%	5.9%	21.8%	0.4%
2026-10-14T02:59:27+00:00	3.9%	2.3%	5.9%	21.8%	0.4%
2026-10-14T03:45:25+00:00	3.9%	2.3%	5.9%	21.8%	0.4%
2026-10-14T04:30:43+00:00	3.9%	2.3%	5.9%	21.8%	0.4%
2026-10-14T05:15:50+00:00	3.9%	2.3%	5.9%	21.8%	0.4%
2026-10-14T06:00:57+00:00	3.9%	2.3%	5.9%	21.8%	0.4%
2026-10-14T06:46:06+00:00	3.9%	2.3%	5.9%	21.8%	0.4%
2026-10-14T07:31:24+00:00	3.0%	2.3%	5.9%	21.8%	0.0%
2026-10-14T08:16:33+00:00	3.0%	2.3%	5.9%	21.8%	0.0%
2026-10-14T09:01:43+00:00	3.0%	2.3%	5.9%	21.8%	0.0%
2026-10-14T09:46:50+00:00	3.0%	2.3%	5.9%	21.8%	0.0%
2026-10-14T10:32:05+00:00	3.0%	2.3%	5.9%	2.0%	0.0%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
National Blend	73%	55.0°F	2.5°F	2026-10-14 00:00	0.5329
NWS forecast	65%	55.0°F	3.9°F	2026-10-14 02:00	0.4212
WeatherNext 2	6%	62.3°F	3.7°F	2026-10-13 12:00	0.0035
AIFS Single	3%	64.6°F	4.3°F	2026-10-14 00:00	0.0009
IFS Ensemble	2%	72.2°F	7.9°F	2026-10-13 00:00	0.0005
IFS HRES	2%	65.7°F	4.5°F	2026-10-14 00:00	0.0004
ICON	<1%	73.5°F	4.0°F	2026-10-14 00:00	0.0000

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≤ 56°F · KPHL

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KPHL-20261017-TMAX-LE56
Opened Oct 13 · 08:02 UTC

Original listing: Philadelphia stays cold-for-here: high ≤ 56°F · Sat Oct 17

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗