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KPHL / Sat Oct 17 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Philadelphia, PAHigh ≤ 56°F

FINAL OUTCOMENOOct 14 · 10:32 UTC
THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%
WN2
6%
AIFS
3%
EPS
2%
HRES
2%
ICON
<1%
Consensus
6%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED
WN2YES 2.9¢Risks 0.74u
VS
ICONNO 97.0¢Risks 24.26u

25 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +24.26u · ICON −24.26u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

RecordedReconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

0%25%50%75%100%AIFS Single: 68.4% · 2026-10-02T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 73.5% · 2026-10-02T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 36.4% · 2026-10-02T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 14.6% · 2026-10-03T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 14.9% · 2026-10-03T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 10.0% · 2026-10-03T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.3% · 2026-10-03T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 48.4% · 2026-10-04T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 11.5% · 2026-10-04T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 4.4% · 2026-10-04T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 6.3% · 2026-10-04T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 15.9% · 2026-10-05T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 22.8% · 2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 42.1% · 2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 3.2% · 2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 62.5% · 2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 33.5% · 2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 53.7% · 2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 51.6% · 2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 43.4% · 2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 26.0% · 2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.5% · 2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 15.9% · 2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 8.3% · 2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 11.0% · 2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 5.7% · 2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 22.0% · 2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.4% · 2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 23.0% · 2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 3.8% · 2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 42.7% · 2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 49.3% · 2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 42.5% · 2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 61.8% · 2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 66.0% · 2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 62.9% · 2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 66.0% · 2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 77.8% · 2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 78.3% · 2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 75.8% · 2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 43.5% · 2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 40.9% · 2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 42.4% · 2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 43.0% · 2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 41.1% · 2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 48.2% · 2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 16.5% · 2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 15.3% · 2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 12.4% · 2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 8.6% · 2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 12.1% · 2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 9.4% · 2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 16.8% · 2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 11.6% · 2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 11.4% · 2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 11.2% · 2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 12.2% · 2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 8.9% · 2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 8.1% · 2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 4.7% · 2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 72.8% · 2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 77.4% · 2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 100.0% · 2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00ICON: 4.2% · 2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.3% · 2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00ICON: 23.4% · 2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00ICON: 9.0% · 2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00ICON: 18.9% · 2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00ICON: 10.4% · 2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00ICON: 11.1% · 2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00ICON: 2.2% · 2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00ICON: 4.5% · 2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.5% · 2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.0% · 2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.0% · 2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.0% · 2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.0% · 2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.0% · 2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.0% · 2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.0% · 2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.0% · 2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.0% · 2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.0% · 2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.0% · 2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.0% · 2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.0% · 2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.0% · 2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00ICON: 1.4% · 2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00ICON: 77.4% · 2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00ICON: 70.5% · 2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 24.0% · 2026-10-02T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 3.8% · 2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 1.9% · 2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.7% · 2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00GFS: 7.8% · 2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 1.8% · 2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 3.1% · 2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00GFS: 5.5% · 2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 3.1% · 2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 2.2% · 2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 2.6% · 2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.6% · 2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 2.7% · 2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 1.4% · 2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 14.2% · 2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00GFS: 18.4% · 2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 18.9% · 2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 17.9% · 2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 11.6% · 2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00GFS: 23.9% · 2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 29.9% · 2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 16.1% · 2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 2.9% · 2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.0% · 2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.1% · 2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.0% · 2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.0% · 2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.8% · 2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.1% · 2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 1.0% · 2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 2.1% · 2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00GFS: 1.3% · 2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.3% · 2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.1% · 2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.0% · 2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.0% · 2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.0% · 2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 1.8% · 2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 57.9% · 2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00GFS: 63.0% · 2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00UKMET: 53.5% · 2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00UKMET: 32.3% · 2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00UKMET: 42.4% · 2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00UKMET: 7.5% · 2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00UKMET: 14.3% · 2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00UKMET: 15.6% · 2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00UKMET: 4.3% · 2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.1% · 2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.1% · 2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.3% · 2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.6% · 2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00UKMET: 1.4% · 2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00UKMET: 2.7% · 2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00UKMET: 2.6% · 2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00UKMET: 4.0% · 2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00UKMET: 1.9% · 2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00UKMET: 1.5% · 2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00UKMET: 2.5% · 2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00UKMET: 5.1% · 2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00UKMET: 92.3% · 2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00UKMET: 96.6% · 2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00GEM: 0.2% · 2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00GEM: 0.1% · 2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00GEM: 0.0% · 2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00GEM: 0.0% · 2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00GEM: 98.0% · 2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 9.8% · 2026-10-03T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 12.8% · 2026-10-03T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 9.3% · 2026-10-04T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 7.9% · 2026-10-04T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 3.4% · 2026-10-05T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 7.7% · 2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 6.4% · 2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 14.2% · 2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 14.7% · 2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 13.7% · 2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 9.0% · 2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 5.3% · 2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 9.6% · 2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 14.1% · 2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 17.1% · 2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 15.3% · 2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 15.2% · 2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 23.9% · 2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 31.6% · 2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 30.8% · 2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 32.2% · 2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 19.6% · 2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 1.8% · 2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.8% · 2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.6% · 2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.6% · 2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.8% · 2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.7% · 2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 1.9% · 2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 1.9% · 2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 2.1% · 2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 1.4% · 2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.8% · 2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 1.3% · 2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.4% · 2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 9.9% · 2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 91.7% · 2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 92.7% · 2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:0010-02 06:0010-10 00:0010-17 18:00
AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC
View the forecast data
UTCAIFSICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS*
2026-10-02T06:00:00+00:0068.4%—————
2026-10-02T12:00:00+00:0073.5%—————
2026-10-02T18:00:00+00:0036.4%—24.0%———
2026-10-03T00:00:00+00:0014.6%————9.8%
2026-10-03T06:00:00+00:0014.9%—————
2026-10-03T12:00:00+00:0010.0%————12.8%
2026-10-03T18:00:00+00:000.3%—————
2026-10-04T00:00:00+00:0048.4%————9.3%
2026-10-04T06:00:00+00:0011.5%—————
2026-10-04T12:00:00+00:004.4%————7.9%
2026-10-04T18:00:00+00:006.3%—————
2026-10-05T00:00:00+00:0015.9%————3.4%
2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:0022.8%—————
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:0042.1%————7.7%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:003.2%—————
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:0062.5%————6.4%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:0033.5%—————
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:0053.7%————14.2%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:0051.6%—————
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:0043.4%————14.7%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:0026.0%—————
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:000.5%————13.7%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:0015.9%—————
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:008.3%—3.8%——9.0%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:0011.0%—1.9%———
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:005.7%—0.7%——5.3%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:0022.0%—————
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:000.4%—7.8%——9.6%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:0023.0%—1.8%———
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:003.8%—3.1%——14.1%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:0042.7%—5.5%———
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:0049.3%4.2%3.1%——17.1%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:0042.5%—2.2%———
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:0061.8%0.3%2.6%53.5%—15.3%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:0066.0%—0.6%———
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:0062.9%—2.7%32.3%—15.2%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:0066.0%—1.4%———
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:0077.8%23.4%14.2%42.4%—23.9%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:0078.3%—18.4%———
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:0075.8%9.0%18.9%7.5%—31.6%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:0043.5%18.9%17.9%———
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:0040.9%10.4%11.6%14.3%—30.8%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:0042.4%11.1%23.9%———
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:0043.0%2.2%29.9%15.6%—32.2%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:0041.1%4.5%16.1%———
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:0048.2%0.5%2.9%4.3%—19.6%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:0016.5%0.0%0.0%——1.8%
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:0015.3%0.0%0.1%0.1%—0.8%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:0012.4%0.0%0.0%——0.6%
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:008.6%0.0%0.0%0.1%—0.6%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:0012.1%0.0%0.8%——0.8%
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:009.4%0.0%0.1%0.3%0.2%0.7%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:0016.8%0.0%1.0%0.6%——
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:0011.6%0.0%2.1%1.4%—1.9%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:0011.4%0.0%1.3%2.7%—1.9%
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:0011.2%0.0%0.3%2.6%0.1%2.1%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:0012.2%0.0%0.1%4.0%—1.4%
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:008.9%0.0%0.0%1.9%0.0%0.8%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:008.1%0.0%0.0%1.5%—1.3%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:004.7%0.0%0.0%2.5%0.0%0.4%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:0072.8%1.4%1.8%5.1%—9.9%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:0077.4%77.4%57.9%92.3%98.0%91.7%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00100.0%70.5%63.0%96.6%—92.7%
THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODELYESMEANSPREAD σINITIALIZATION UTCBRIER ↓
National Blend73%55.0°F2.5°F2026-10-14 00:000.5329
NWS forecast65%55.0°F3.9°F2026-10-14 02:000.4212
WeatherNext 26%62.3°F3.7°F2026-10-13 12:000.0035
AIFS Single3%64.6°F4.3°F2026-10-14 00:000.0009
IFS Ensemble2%72.2°F7.9°F2026-10-13 00:000.0005
IFS HRES2%65.7°F4.5°F2026-10-14 00:000.0004
ICON<1%73.5°F4.0°F2026-10-14 00:000.0000

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≤ 56°F · KPHL

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KPHL-20261017-TMAX-LE56
Opened Oct 13 · 08:02 UTC

Original listing: Philadelphia stays cold-for-here: high ≤ 56°F · Sat Oct 17

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗