KPHL / Sun Oct 18 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Philadelphia, PAHigh ≥ 55°F

FINAL OUTCOMEYESOct 12 · 14:41 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

99%

95%

95%

93%

92%

Consensus

94%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 95.2¢Risks 23.81u

HRESNO 4.7¢Risks 1.19u

25 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +1.19u · HRES −1.19u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-03T06:00:00+00:00	9.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-03T12:00:00+00:00	25.2%	—	—	—	—	57.9%
2026-10-03T18:00:00+00:00	88.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T00:00:00+00:00	60.5%	—	—	—	—	94.1%
2026-10-04T06:00:00+00:00	97.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T12:00:00+00:00	98.5%	—	—	—	—	94.5%
2026-10-04T18:00:00+00:00	99.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T00:00:00+00:00	89.7%	—	—	—	—	96.0%
2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:00	92.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	63.6%	—	—	—	—	90.7%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	34.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	38.5%	—	—	—	—	92.7%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	39.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	81.4%	—	—	—	—	84.5%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	65.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	74.3%	—	—	—	—	82.5%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	81.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	98.0%	—	—	—	—	82.5%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	83.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	80.4%	—	—	—	—	82.9%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	68.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	90.2%	—	—	—	—	85.1%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	39.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	99.4%	—	—	—	—	83.4%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	58.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	33.0%	—	53.0%	—	—	84.2%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	22.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	33.5%	—	87.8%	—	—	73.6%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	20.2%	—	35.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	53.9%	—	59.7%	—	—	74.8%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	54.6%	—	21.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	27.7%	—	15.9%	—	—	61.3%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	48.6%	—	18.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	87.8%	87.0%	34.3%	46.5%	—	70.2%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	96.1%	—	52.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	91.0%	92.6%	50.7%	81.1%	—	76.3%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	78.4%	—	67.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	88.2%	73.0%	59.8%	87.5%	—	69.1%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	92.6%	—	50.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	80.0%	94.1%	77.0%	85.1%	—	73.9%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	74.4%	32.6%	88.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	73.5%	95.1%	93.7%	72.1%	—	73.5%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	61.8%	90.1%	96.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	62.1%	87.4%	95.7%	67.0%	—	48.2%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	72.1%	72.1%	93.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	86.1%	74.9%	92.4%	59.1%	—	50.0%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	88.7%	78.3%	90.4%	—	—	47.2%
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	86.4%	85.8%	91.0%	59.6%	—	57.7%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	93.0%	77.4%	91.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	91.8%	90.6%	91.4%	61.2%	—	67.0%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	90.4%	88.9%	89.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	90.6%	91.9%	79.4%	66.9%	—	46.7%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	94.6%	90.8%	75.1%	2.7%	—	65.4%
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	93.2%	88.4%	87.9%	74.9%	—	74.0%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	96.0%	91.3%	90.8%	77.5%	—	78.4%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	96.5%	93.7%	93.3%	80.9%	56.2%	79.2%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	97.2%	92.8%	94.4%	87.8%	—	84.2%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	96.3%	94.3%	97.2%	92.6%	74.9%	83.5%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	98.2%	95.3%	97.3%	92.9%	—	86.1%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	97.9%	96.5%	99.2%	91.6%	81.8%	87.8%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	98.3%	96.6%	99.5%	90.1%	—	85.6%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	98.7%	96.6%	99.6%	91.7%	78.6%	88.3%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	98.9%	99.7%	96.3%	—	—

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	99%	65.2°F	4.6°F	2026-10-12 00:00	0.0001
IFS Ensemble	95%	61.9°F	4.5°F	2026-10-12 00:00	0.0025
ICON	95%	65.9°F	7.0°F	2026-10-12 00:00	0.0027
AIFS Single	93%	62.3°F	5.3°F	2026-10-12 06:00	0.0050
IFS HRES	92%	63.5°F	6.6°F	2026-10-12 00:00	0.0072
National Blend	70%	58.0°F	6.7°F	2026-10-12 06:00	0.0900
NWS forecast	53%	55.0°F	5.8°F	2026-10-12 02:00	0.2172

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 55°F · KPHL

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KPHL-20261018-TMAX-GE55
Opened Oct 12 · 04:00 UTC

Original listing: Philadelphia high ≥ 55°F · Sun Oct 18

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗