KPHL / Sun Oct 18 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Philadelphia, PAHigh ≥ 55°F

FINAL OUTCOMEYESOct 12 · 14:41 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

99%

95%

95%

93%

92%

Consensus

94%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 95.2¢Risks 23.81u

HRESNO 4.7¢Risks 1.19u

25 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +1.19u · HRES −1.19u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-12T14:41:14+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-12T04:00:55+00:00	99.1%	89.4%	96.4%	90.5%	86.6%
2026-10-12T04:47:12+00:00	99.1%	89.4%	96.4%	90.5%	86.6%
2026-10-12T05:32:18+00:00	99.1%	89.4%	97.4%	90.5%	86.6%
2026-10-12T06:17:26+00:00	99.1%	89.4%	97.4%	90.5%	86.6%
2026-10-12T07:02:32+00:00	99.1%	89.4%	97.4%	90.5%	86.6%
2026-10-12T07:47:41+00:00	97.9%	89.4%	97.4%	91.5%	94.8%
2026-10-12T08:34:21+00:00	97.9%	89.4%	97.4%	91.5%	94.8%
2026-10-12T09:19:35+00:00	97.9%	89.4%	97.4%	91.5%	94.8%
2026-10-12T10:04:56+00:00	97.9%	89.4%	97.4%	91.5%	94.8%
2026-10-12T10:50:06+00:00	97.9%	89.4%	97.4%	91.5%	94.8%
2026-10-12T11:35:18+00:00	97.9%	89.4%	99.1%	91.5%	94.8%
2026-10-12T12:20:45+00:00	97.9%	95.3%	99.1%	91.5%	94.8%
2026-10-12T13:05:53+00:00	97.9%	95.3%	99.1%	91.5%	94.8%
2026-10-12T13:51:01+00:00	92.9%	95.3%	99.1%	91.5%	94.8%
2026-10-12T14:41:14+00:00	92.9%	95.0%	99.0%	91.5%	94.8%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	99%	65.2°F	4.6°F	2026-10-12 00:00	0.0001
IFS Ensemble	95%	61.9°F	4.5°F	2026-10-12 00:00	0.0025
ICON	95%	65.9°F	7.0°F	2026-10-12 00:00	0.0027
AIFS Single	93%	62.3°F	5.3°F	2026-10-12 06:00	0.0050
IFS HRES	92%	63.5°F	6.6°F	2026-10-12 00:00	0.0072
National Blend	70%	58.0°F	6.7°F	2026-10-12 06:00	0.0900
NWS forecast	53%	55.0°F	5.8°F	2026-10-12 02:00	0.2172

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 55°F · KPHL

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KPHL-20261018-TMAX-GE55
Opened Oct 12 · 04:00 UTC

Original listing: Philadelphia high ≥ 55°F · Sun Oct 18

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗