KPHL / Sun Oct 18 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Philadelphia, PAHigh ≥ 58°F

FINAL OUTCOMEYESOct 11 · 10:33 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

89%

86%

85%

33%

Consensus

76%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

EPSYES 60.7¢Risks 60.70u

AIFSNO 39.3¢Risks 39.30u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +39.30u · AIFS −39.30u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-03T06:00:00+00:00	4.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-03T12:00:00+00:00	14.3%	—	—	—	—	42.1%
2026-10-03T18:00:00+00:00	79.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T00:00:00+00:00	44.7%	—	—	—	—	87.7%
2026-10-04T06:00:00+00:00	93.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T12:00:00+00:00	96.2%	—	—	—	—	88.5%
2026-10-04T18:00:00+00:00	98.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T00:00:00+00:00	80.7%	—	—	—	—	91.1%
2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:00	84.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	47.9%	—	—	—	—	82.1%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	21.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	24.4%	—	—	—	—	85.4%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	24.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	68.9%	—	—	—	—	73.0%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	49.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	60.0%	—	—	—	—	70.3%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	69.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	95.0%	—	—	—	—	70.4%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	72.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	67.0%	—	—	—	—	70.5%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	52.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	80.7%	—	—	—	—	73.0%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	23.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	98.1%	—	—	—	—	70.2%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	40.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	18.5%	—	35.2%	—	—	70.8%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	10.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	18.5%	—	75.6%	—	—	56.3%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	9.4%	—	19.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	34.8%	—	40.3%	—	—	57.1%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	35.1%	—	9.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	13.5%	—	6.6%	—	—	41.3%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	29.0%	—	7.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	73.7%	72.5%	17.5%	26.9%	—	50.0%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	88.9%	—	31.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	78.5%	81.6%	29.7%	62.9%	—	56.6%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	58.9%	—	45.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	73.0%	51.5%	37.2%	71.7%	—	46.9%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	80.5%	—	28.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	59.5%	83.2%	55.6%	67.0%	—	51.6%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	51.6%	14.4%	71.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	50.0%	84.8%	81.6%	48.3%	—	50.0%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	36.6%	74.0%	88.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	36.3%	68.6%	85.4%	41.3%	—	24.1%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	46.4%	46.4%	79.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	65.3%	49.1%	77.0%	32.2%	—	24.4%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	69.1%	52.8%	72.4%	—	—	21.7%
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	64.3%	63.4%	72.9%	31.3%	—	29.6%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	76.6%	50.0%	73.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	73.2%	70.6%	72.4%	31.2%	—	36.9%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	69.3%	66.5%	68.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	68.9%	71.8%	50.0%	35.1%	—	18.3%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	77.7%	68.5%	43.3%	0.3%	—	32.6%
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	73.0%	62.6%	61.5%	41.9%	—	40.8%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	80.1%	67.5%	66.4%	44.0%	—	45.2%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	80.9%	72.4%	71.3%	47.5%	21.7%	45.0%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	82.6%	68.7%	73.1%	57.7%	—	51.3%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	78.0%	71.6%	81.8%	66.9%	36.8%	48.7%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	85.3%	73.5%	80.9%	66.2%	—	51.4%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	82.8%	76.6%	90.5%	61.4%	42.8%	52.9%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	83.8%	75.2%	92.0%	56.0%	—	47.0%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	84.8%	73.7%	92.3%	57.9%	34.6%	50.0%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	85.0%	93.7%	70.5%	—	—

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS Ensemble	89%	63.3°F	4.8°F	2026-10-10 00:00	0.0128
IFS HRES	86%	64.4°F	6.3°F	2026-10-11 00:00	0.0190
WeatherNext 2	85%	62.9°F	5.3°F	2026-10-10 18:00	0.0237
National Blend	53%	58.0°F	7.7°F	2026-10-11 00:00	0.2247
AIFS Single	33%	55.0°F	5.6°F	2026-10-11 00:00	0.4529

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 58°F · KPHL

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KPHL-20261018-TMAX-GE58
Opened Oct 11 · 07:31 UTC

Original listing: Philadelphia high ≥ 58°F · Sun Oct 18

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗