WEATHER PROPSBOARDMATCHUPSMODELSSTATIONSREPLAYTHE LEAGUE
← All matchups
KPHL / Sun Oct 18 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Philadelphia, PAHigh ≥ 58°F

FINAL OUTCOMEYESOct 11 · 10:33 UTC
THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%
EPS
89%
HRES
86%
WN2
85%
AIFS
33%
Consensus
76%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED
EPSYES 60.7¢Risks 60.70u
VS
AIFSNO 39.3¢Risks 39.30u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +39.30u · AIFS −39.30u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

RecordedReconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

0%25%50%75%100%AIFS Single: 32.7% · 2026-10-11T07:31:32+00:00AIFS Single: 32.7% · 2026-10-11T08:18:00+00:00AIFS Single: 32.7% · 2026-10-11T09:03:06+00:00AIFS Single: 32.7% · 2026-10-11T09:48:14+00:00AIFS Single: 32.7% · 2026-10-11T10:33:30+00:00IFS Ensemble: 88.7% · 2026-10-11T07:31:32+00:00IFS Ensemble: 88.7% · 2026-10-11T08:18:00+00:00IFS Ensemble: 88.7% · 2026-10-11T09:03:06+00:00IFS Ensemble: 88.7% · 2026-10-11T09:48:14+00:00IFS Ensemble: 88.7% · 2026-10-11T10:33:30+00:00WeatherNext 2: 84.6% · 2026-10-11T07:31:32+00:00WeatherNext 2: 84.6% · 2026-10-11T08:18:00+00:00WeatherNext 2: 84.6% · 2026-10-11T09:03:06+00:00WeatherNext 2: 84.6% · 2026-10-11T09:48:14+00:00WeatherNext 2: 84.6% · 2026-10-11T10:33:30+00:00IFS HRES: 86.2% · 2026-10-11T07:31:32+00:00IFS HRES: 86.2% · 2026-10-11T08:18:00+00:00IFS HRES: 86.2% · 2026-10-11T09:03:06+00:00IFS HRES: 86.2% · 2026-10-11T09:48:14+00:00IFS HRES: 86.2% · 2026-10-11T10:33:30+00:0010-11 07:3110-11 09:0310-11 10:33
AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRES
2026-10-11T10:33:30+00:00 · UTC
View the forecast data
UTCAIFSEPSWN2HRES
2026-10-11T07:31:32+00:0032.7%88.7%84.6%86.2%
2026-10-11T08:18:00+00:0032.7%88.7%84.6%86.2%
2026-10-11T09:03:06+00:0032.7%88.7%84.6%86.2%
2026-10-11T09:48:14+00:0032.7%88.7%84.6%86.2%
2026-10-11T10:33:30+00:0032.7%88.7%84.6%86.2%
THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODELYESMEANSPREAD σINITIALIZATION UTCBRIER ↓
IFS Ensemble89%63.3°F4.8°F2026-10-10 00:000.0128
IFS HRES86%64.4°F6.3°F2026-10-11 00:000.0190
WeatherNext 285%62.9°F5.3°F2026-10-10 18:000.0237
National Blend53%58.0°F7.7°F2026-10-11 00:000.2247
AIFS Single33%55.0°F5.6°F2026-10-11 00:000.4529

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 58°F · KPHL

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KPHL-20261018-TMAX-GE58
Opened Oct 11 · 07:31 UTC

Original listing: Philadelphia high ≥ 58°F · Sun Oct 18

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗