KPHL / Sun Oct 18 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Philadelphia, PAHigh ≥ 59°F

FINAL OUTCOMEYESOct 18 · 07:15 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

95%

92%

72%

56%

43%

Consensus

81%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 69.0¢Risks 68.95u

ICONNO 31.1¢Risks 31.05u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +31.05u · ICON −31.05u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-03T06:00:00+00:00	3.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-03T12:00:00+00:00	11.5%	—	—	—	—	36.9%
2026-10-03T18:00:00+00:00	75.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T00:00:00+00:00	39.5%	—	—	—	—	84.8%
2026-10-04T06:00:00+00:00	91.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T12:00:00+00:00	95.0%	—	—	—	—	85.7%
2026-10-04T18:00:00+00:00	98.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T00:00:00+00:00	76.8%	—	—	—	—	88.8%
2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:00	81.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	42.6%	—	—	—	—	78.4%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	17.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	20.4%	—	—	—	—	82.1%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	20.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	64.1%	—	—	—	—	68.4%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	44.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	54.8%	—	—	—	—	65.5%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	64.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	93.5%	—	—	—	—	65.6%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	67.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	61.9%	—	—	—	—	65.5%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	46.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	76.6%	—	—	—	—	68.1%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	19.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	97.3%	—	—	—	—	64.9%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	34.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	14.7%	—	29.7%	—	—	65.4%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	8.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	14.6%	—	70.4%	—	—	50.0%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	7.0%	—	15.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	28.9%	—	34.2%	—	—	50.6%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	29.2%	—	7.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	10.2%	—	4.7%	—	—	34.8%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	23.4%	—	5.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	67.7%	66.4%	13.4%	21.4%	—	43.0%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	85.2%	—	25.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	72.8%	76.3%	23.7%	55.8%	—	49.3%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	51.5%	—	38.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	66.3%	43.9%	30.3%	64.9%	—	39.4%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	74.7%	—	22.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	51.6%	77.6%	47.6%	59.5%	—	43.6%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	43.5%	10.2%	64.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	41.7%	79.3%	75.5%	40.1%	—	41.7%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	28.8%	66.6%	83.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	28.4%	60.4%	79.8%	33.0%	—	17.8%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	37.6%	37.6%	72.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	56.4%	40.0%	69.5%	24.4%	—	17.8%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	60.3%	43.4%	63.9%	—	—	15.4%
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	54.9%	53.9%	64.3%	23.2%	—	21.8%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	68.3%	40.1%	64.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	64.1%	61.2%	63.1%	22.7%	—	27.6%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	59.5%	56.3%	58.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	58.7%	61.8%	39.2%	25.5%	—	11.9%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	68.5%	57.8%	32.6%	0.1%	—	23.1%
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	62.6%	51.2%	50.0%	31.0%	—	30.0%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	70.7%	56.0%	54.8%	32.5%	—	33.6%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	71.3%	61.1%	59.9%	35.4%	13.7%	33.1%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	73.1%	56.4%	61.5%	44.9%	—	38.5%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	66.9%	59.3%	71.6%	54.0%	25.1%	35.6%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	75.8%	61.0%	70.0%	52.8%	—	37.7%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	72.0%	64.2%	82.8%	47.1%	29.3%	38.6%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	72.8%	61.9%	84.7%	41.0%	—	32.5%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	73.7%	59.4%	84.8%	42.1%	21.4%	34.6%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	73.3%	86.9%	54.9%	—	—

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	95%	63.2°F	2.9°F	2026-10-17 18:00	0.0028
AIFS Single	92%	63.9°F	3.9°F	2026-10-17 18:00	0.0072
National Blend	87%	61.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-18 00:00	0.0174
IFS Ensemble	72%	60.3°F	3.0°F	2026-10-17 00:00	0.0767
NWS forecast	59%	59.0°F	2.1°F	2026-10-18 03:00	0.1665
IFS HRES	56%	59.1°F	3.7°F	2026-10-17 12:00	0.1901
ICON	43%	57.9°F	3.5°F	2026-10-17 12:00	0.3226

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 59°F · KPHL

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KPHL-20261018-TMAX-GE59
Opened Oct 13 · 04:15 UTC

Original listing: Philadelphia high ≥ 59°F · Sun Oct 18

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗