KPHL / Sun Oct 18 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Philadelphia, PAHigh ≥ 59°F

FINAL OUTCOMEYESOct 18 · 07:15 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

95%

92%

72%

56%

43%

Consensus

81%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 69.0¢Risks 68.95u

ICONNO 31.1¢Risks 31.05u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +31.05u · ICON −31.05u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-18T07:15:31+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-13T04:15:12+00:00	90.3%	73.9%	94.5%	71.9%	65.0%
2026-10-13T05:01:42+00:00	90.3%	73.9%	95.4%	71.9%	65.0%
2026-10-13T05:46:49+00:00	90.3%	73.9%	95.4%	71.9%	65.0%
2026-10-13T06:31:59+00:00	90.3%	73.9%	95.4%	71.9%	65.0%
2026-10-13T07:17:15+00:00	90.3%	73.9%	95.4%	71.9%	65.0%
2026-10-13T08:02:32+00:00	78.1%	73.9%	95.4%	60.3%	86.2%
2026-10-13T08:49:38+00:00	78.1%	73.9%	95.4%	60.3%	86.2%
2026-10-13T09:34:43+00:00	78.1%	73.9%	95.4%	60.3%	86.2%
2026-10-13T10:19:51+00:00	78.1%	73.9%	95.4%	60.3%	86.2%
2026-10-13T11:05:09+00:00	78.1%	68.7%	83.0%	60.3%	86.2%
2026-10-13T11:50:33+00:00	78.1%	68.7%	83.0%	60.3%	86.2%
2026-10-13T12:35:47+00:00	78.1%	68.7%	83.0%	60.3%	86.2%
2026-10-13T13:20:53+00:00	78.1%	68.7%	83.0%	60.3%	86.2%
2026-10-13T14:05:59+00:00	71.4%	68.7%	82.9%	60.3%	86.1%
2026-10-13T14:56:01+00:00	71.4%	68.7%	82.9%	60.3%	86.1%
2026-10-13T15:41:12+00:00	71.4%	68.7%	82.9%	60.3%	86.1%
2026-10-13T16:27:00+00:00	71.4%	68.7%	82.9%	60.1%	86.1%
2026-10-13T17:12:07+00:00	71.4%	68.7%	84.1%	60.1%	86.1%
2026-10-13T17:57:15+00:00	71.4%	68.7%	84.1%	60.1%	86.1%
2026-10-13T18:42:21+00:00	71.4%	68.7%	84.1%	60.1%	86.1%
2026-10-13T19:27:26+00:00	70.0%	68.7%	84.1%	60.1%	86.5%
2026-10-13T20:12:32+00:00	70.0%	68.7%	84.1%	60.1%	86.5%
2026-10-13T20:57:40+00:00	70.0%	68.7%	84.1%	60.1%	86.5%
2026-10-13T21:42:53+00:00	70.0%	68.7%	84.1%	60.1%	86.5%
2026-10-13T22:28:22+00:00	70.0%	68.7%	84.1%	54.8%	86.5%
2026-10-13T23:13:31+00:00	70.0%	68.7%	86.8%	54.8%	86.5%
2026-10-13T23:58:42+00:00	70.0%	68.7%	86.8%	54.8%	86.5%
2026-10-14T00:43:51+00:00	70.0%	68.7%	86.8%	54.8%	86.5%
2026-10-14T01:29:06+00:00	58.8%	68.7%	86.8%	54.8%	86.5%
2026-10-14T02:14:16+00:00	58.8%	68.7%	86.8%	54.8%	86.5%
2026-10-15T04:01:44+00:00	84.7%	44.6%	88.2%	26.1%	54.9%
2026-10-15T04:47:49+00:00	84.7%	44.6%	88.2%	26.1%	54.9%
2026-10-15T05:33:15+00:00	84.7%	44.6%	92.3%	26.1%	54.9%
2026-10-15T06:18:25+00:00	84.7%	44.6%	92.3%	26.1%	54.9%
2026-10-15T07:03:32+00:00	84.7%	44.6%	92.3%	26.1%	54.9%
2026-10-15T07:48:51+00:00	83.6%	44.6%	92.3%	32.7%	60.9%
2026-10-15T08:35:48+00:00	83.6%	44.6%	92.3%	32.7%	60.9%
2026-10-15T09:21:01+00:00	83.6%	44.6%	92.3%	32.7%	60.9%
2026-10-15T10:06:51+00:00	83.6%	44.6%	92.3%	32.7%	60.9%
2026-10-15T10:52:48+00:00	83.6%	44.6%	92.3%	32.7%	60.9%
2026-10-15T11:39:03+00:00	83.6%	44.6%	93.5%	32.7%	60.9%
2026-10-15T12:24:48+00:00	83.6%	51.1%	93.5%	32.7%	60.9%
2026-10-15T13:10:03+00:00	83.6%	51.1%	93.5%	32.7%	60.9%
2026-10-15T13:55:46+00:00	90.1%	51.1%	93.5%	32.7%	60.9%
2026-10-15T14:48:22+00:00	90.1%	51.1%	93.5%	32.7%	60.9%
2026-10-16T04:23:47+00:00	85.3%	53.3%	93.9%	50.0%	67.5%
2026-10-16T05:10:22+00:00	85.3%	53.3%	92.7%	50.0%	67.5%
2026-10-16T05:55:47+00:00	85.3%	53.3%	92.7%	50.0%	67.5%
2026-10-16T06:41:00+00:00	85.3%	53.3%	92.7%	50.0%	67.5%
2026-10-16T07:26:11+00:00	85.5%	53.3%	92.7%	50.0%	58.9%
2026-10-16T08:11:21+00:00	85.5%	53.3%	92.7%	50.0%	58.9%
2026-10-16T08:56:31+00:00	85.5%	53.3%	92.7%	50.0%	58.9%
2026-10-16T09:41:40+00:00	85.5%	53.3%	92.7%	50.0%	58.9%
2026-10-16T10:26:45+00:00	85.5%	53.3%	92.7%	50.0%	58.9%
2026-10-16T11:12:02+00:00	85.5%	43.0%	87.7%	50.0%	58.9%
2026-10-16T11:57:35+00:00	85.5%	43.0%	87.7%	50.0%	58.9%
2026-10-16T12:42:45+00:00	85.5%	43.0%	87.7%	50.0%	58.9%
2026-10-16T13:27:55+00:00	89.9%	43.0%	87.7%	36.6%	58.9%
2026-10-16T14:19:39+00:00	89.9%	43.1%	87.7%	36.6%	58.9%
2026-10-17T15:24:25+00:00	91.5%	72.3%	95.0%	48.9%	45.5%
2026-10-17T16:10:29+00:00	91.5%	72.3%	95.0%	48.9%	45.5%
2026-10-17T16:55:36+00:00	91.5%	72.3%	95.0%	48.9%	45.5%
2026-10-17T17:40:45+00:00	91.5%	72.3%	95.0%	48.9%	45.5%
2026-10-17T18:25:54+00:00	91.5%	72.3%	95.0%	48.9%	45.5%
2026-10-17T19:11:00+00:00	91.5%	72.3%	95.0%	48.9%	45.5%
2026-10-17T19:56:08+00:00	88.8%	72.3%	95.0%	56.4%	43.2%
2026-10-17T20:41:25+00:00	88.8%	72.3%	95.0%	56.4%	43.2%
2026-10-17T21:26:35+00:00	88.8%	72.3%	95.0%	56.4%	43.2%
2026-10-17T22:11:50+00:00	88.8%	72.3%	95.0%	56.4%	43.2%
2026-10-17T22:56:58+00:00	88.8%	72.3%	92.6%	56.4%	43.2%
2026-10-17T23:42:09+00:00	88.8%	72.3%	92.6%	56.4%	43.2%
2026-10-18T00:27:21+00:00	88.8%	72.3%	92.6%	56.4%	43.2%
2026-10-18T01:12:37+00:00	88.8%	72.3%	92.6%	56.4%	43.2%
2026-10-18T01:58:00+00:00	91.5%	72.3%	92.6%	56.4%	43.2%
2026-10-18T02:43:18+00:00	91.5%	72.3%	92.6%	56.4%	43.2%
2026-10-18T03:28:25+00:00	91.5%	72.3%	92.6%	56.4%	43.2%
2026-10-18T04:13:38+00:00	91.5%	72.3%	92.6%	56.4%	43.2%
2026-10-18T05:00:10+00:00	91.5%	72.3%	94.7%	56.4%	43.2%
2026-10-18T05:45:17+00:00	91.5%	72.3%	94.7%	56.4%	43.2%
2026-10-18T06:30:24+00:00	91.5%	72.3%	94.7%	56.4%	43.2%
2026-10-18T07:15:31+00:00	91.5%	72.3%	94.7%	56.4%	43.2%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	95%	63.2°F	2.9°F	2026-10-17 18:00	0.0028
AIFS Single	92%	63.9°F	3.9°F	2026-10-17 18:00	0.0072
National Blend	87%	61.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-18 00:00	0.0174
IFS Ensemble	72%	60.3°F	3.0°F	2026-10-17 00:00	0.0767
NWS forecast	59%	59.0°F	2.1°F	2026-10-18 03:00	0.1665
IFS HRES	56%	59.1°F	3.7°F	2026-10-17 12:00	0.1901
ICON	43%	57.9°F	3.5°F	2026-10-17 12:00	0.3226

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 59°F · KPHL

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KPHL-20261018-TMAX-GE59
Opened Oct 13 · 04:15 UTC

Original listing: Philadelphia high ≥ 59°F · Sun Oct 18

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗