KPHL / Sun Oct 18 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Philadelphia, PAHigh ≥ 62°F

FINAL OUTCOMENOOct 15 · 03:16 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

65%

64%

31%

17%

11%

Consensus

39%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 37.7¢Risks 37.70u

HRESNO 62.3¢Risks 62.30u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +62.30u · HRES −62.30u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-03T06:00:00+00:00	1.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-03T12:00:00+00:00	5.5%	—	—	—	—	23.2%
2026-10-03T18:00:00+00:00	61.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T00:00:00+00:00	25.2%	—	—	—	—	73.5%
2026-10-04T06:00:00+00:00	83.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T12:00:00+00:00	89.2%	—	—	—	—	74.8%
2026-10-04T18:00:00+00:00	95.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T00:00:00+00:00	63.1%	—	—	—	—	79.2%
2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:00	68.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	27.9%	—	—	—	—	65.0%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	9.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	11.0%	—	—	—	—	69.8%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	11.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	48.4%	—	—	—	—	53.2%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	29.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	39.0%	—	—	—	—	50.0%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	48.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	86.7%	—	—	—	—	50.0%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	51.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	45.6%	—	—	—	—	49.5%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	30.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	61.8%	—	—	—	—	51.7%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	9.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	93.1%	—	—	—	—	47.6%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	20.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	6.6%	—	16.1%	—	—	47.6%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	3.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	6.3%	—	52.5%	—	—	31.8%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	2.5%	—	6.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	14.8%	—	18.5%	—	—	31.8%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	14.7%	—	2.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	3.8%	—	1.4%	—	—	18.4%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	10.7%	—	1.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	47.2%	45.8%	5.1%	9.3%	—	24.1%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	69.3%	—	11.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	52.2%	56.6%	10.3%	34.3%	—	28.5%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	30.0%	—	19.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	43.9%	23.4%	13.8%	42.4%	—	20.0%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	53.1%	—	8.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	28.8%	56.4%	25.5%	35.9%	—	22.4%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	21.8%	3.0%	40.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	20.1%	57.5%	52.5%	18.9%	—	20.1%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	11.5%	41.5%	62.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	10.9%	34.6%	57.0%	13.6%	—	5.7%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	16.1%	16.1%	46.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	29.7%	17.2%	42.7%	8.3%	—	5.3%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	32.6%	19.0%	36.1%	—	—	4.2%
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	27.1%	26.3%	35.7%	7.2%	—	6.5%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	39.1%	15.8%	35.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	34.0%	31.2%	33.0%	6.4%	—	8.6%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	28.8%	26.2%	27.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	27.3%	30.1%	13.7%	7.0%	—	2.3%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	35.7%	25.8%	9.7%	0.0%	—	5.7%
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	28.9%	19.9%	19.1%	8.5%	—	8.1%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	35.9%	22.5%	21.6%	8.7%	—	9.2%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	35.4%	25.6%	24.6%	9.5%	2.1%	8.5%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	36.1%	20.9%	24.8%	13.5%	—	10.3%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	28.4%	22.0%	33.1%	18.2%	4.6%	8.4%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	36.3%	22.1%	30.0%	16.4%	—	8.6%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	30.5%	23.4%	44.2%	12.2%	5.1%	8.3%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	29.8%	20.2%	45.5%	8.6%	—	5.6%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	29.0%	17.1%	43.7%	8.3%	2.4%	5.7%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	26.7%	45.1%	13.2%	—	—

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	65%	62.9°F	3.7°F	2026-10-14 12:00	0.4186
AIFS Single	64%	63.2°F	4.6°F	2026-10-14 18:00	0.4147
National Blend	55%	62.0°F	4.3°F	2026-10-14 06:00	0.2992
NWS forecast	55%	62.0°F	4.5°F	2026-10-14 14:00	0.2970
ICON	31%	59.1°F	4.8°F	2026-10-14 12:00	0.0961
IFS Ensemble	17%	58.0°F	3.7°F	2026-10-14 00:00	0.0296
IFS HRES	11%	55.3°F	5.0°F	2026-10-14 12:00	0.0114

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 62°F · KPHL

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KPHL-20261018-TMAX-GE62
Opened Oct 14 · 15:11 UTC

Original listing: Philadelphia high ≥ 62°F · Sun Oct 18

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗