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KPHL / Sun Oct 18 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Philadelphia, PAHigh ≥ 62°F

FINAL OUTCOMENOOct 15 · 03:16 UTC
THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%
WN2
65%
AIFS
64%
ICON
31%
EPS
17%
HRES
11%
Consensus
39%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED
WN2YES 37.7¢Risks 37.70u
VS
HRESNO 62.3¢Risks 62.30u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +62.30u · HRES −62.30u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

RecordedReconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

0%25%50%75%100%AIFS Single: 44.0% · 2026-10-14T15:11:58+00:00AIFS Single: 44.0% · 2026-10-14T15:57:51+00:00AIFS Single: 44.0% · 2026-10-14T16:43:01+00:00AIFS Single: 44.0% · 2026-10-14T17:28:09+00:00AIFS Single: 44.0% · 2026-10-14T18:13:18+00:00AIFS Single: 44.0% · 2026-10-14T18:58:24+00:00AIFS Single: 61.1% · 2026-10-14T19:43:31+00:00AIFS Single: 61.1% · 2026-10-14T20:28:46+00:00AIFS Single: 61.1% · 2026-10-14T21:13:54+00:00AIFS Single: 61.1% · 2026-10-14T21:59:00+00:00AIFS Single: 61.1% · 2026-10-14T22:44:07+00:00AIFS Single: 61.1% · 2026-10-14T23:29:16+00:00AIFS Single: 61.1% · 2026-10-15T00:14:37+00:00AIFS Single: 61.1% · 2026-10-15T01:01:06+00:00AIFS Single: 64.4% · 2026-10-15T01:46:15+00:00AIFS Single: 64.4% · 2026-10-15T02:31:27+00:00AIFS Single: 64.4% · 2026-10-15T03:16:33+00:00IFS Ensemble: 17.2% · 2026-10-14T15:11:58+00:00IFS Ensemble: 17.2% · 2026-10-14T15:57:51+00:00IFS Ensemble: 17.2% · 2026-10-14T16:43:01+00:00IFS Ensemble: 17.2% · 2026-10-14T17:28:09+00:00IFS Ensemble: 17.2% · 2026-10-14T18:13:18+00:00IFS Ensemble: 17.2% · 2026-10-14T18:58:24+00:00IFS Ensemble: 17.2% · 2026-10-14T19:43:31+00:00IFS Ensemble: 17.2% · 2026-10-14T20:28:46+00:00IFS Ensemble: 17.2% · 2026-10-14T21:13:54+00:00IFS Ensemble: 17.2% · 2026-10-14T21:59:00+00:00IFS Ensemble: 17.2% · 2026-10-14T22:44:07+00:00IFS Ensemble: 17.2% · 2026-10-14T23:29:16+00:00IFS Ensemble: 17.2% · 2026-10-15T00:14:37+00:00IFS Ensemble: 17.2% · 2026-10-15T01:01:06+00:00IFS Ensemble: 17.2% · 2026-10-15T01:46:15+00:00IFS Ensemble: 17.2% · 2026-10-15T02:31:27+00:00IFS Ensemble: 17.2% · 2026-10-15T03:16:33+00:00WeatherNext 2: 63.7% · 2026-10-14T15:11:58+00:00WeatherNext 2: 63.7% · 2026-10-14T15:57:51+00:00WeatherNext 2: 63.7% · 2026-10-14T16:43:01+00:00WeatherNext 2: 57.5% · 2026-10-14T17:28:09+00:00WeatherNext 2: 57.5% · 2026-10-14T18:13:18+00:00WeatherNext 2: 57.5% · 2026-10-14T18:58:24+00:00WeatherNext 2: 57.5% · 2026-10-14T19:43:31+00:00WeatherNext 2: 57.5% · 2026-10-14T20:28:46+00:00WeatherNext 2: 57.5% · 2026-10-14T21:13:54+00:00WeatherNext 2: 57.5% · 2026-10-14T21:59:00+00:00WeatherNext 2: 57.5% · 2026-10-14T22:44:07+00:00WeatherNext 2: 64.7% · 2026-10-14T23:29:16+00:00WeatherNext 2: 64.7% · 2026-10-15T00:14:37+00:00WeatherNext 2: 64.7% · 2026-10-15T01:01:06+00:00WeatherNext 2: 64.7% · 2026-10-15T01:46:15+00:00WeatherNext 2: 64.7% · 2026-10-15T02:31:27+00:00WeatherNext 2: 64.7% · 2026-10-15T03:16:33+00:00IFS HRES: 14.5% · 2026-10-14T15:11:58+00:00IFS HRES: 14.5% · 2026-10-14T15:57:51+00:00IFS HRES: 14.5% · 2026-10-14T16:43:01+00:00IFS HRES: 14.5% · 2026-10-14T17:28:09+00:00IFS HRES: 14.5% · 2026-10-14T18:13:18+00:00IFS HRES: 14.5% · 2026-10-14T18:58:24+00:00IFS HRES: 10.7% · 2026-10-14T19:43:31+00:00IFS HRES: 10.7% · 2026-10-14T20:28:46+00:00IFS HRES: 10.7% · 2026-10-14T21:13:54+00:00IFS HRES: 10.7% · 2026-10-14T21:59:00+00:00IFS HRES: 10.7% · 2026-10-14T22:44:07+00:00IFS HRES: 10.7% · 2026-10-14T23:29:16+00:00IFS HRES: 10.7% · 2026-10-15T00:14:37+00:00IFS HRES: 10.7% · 2026-10-15T01:01:06+00:00IFS HRES: 10.7% · 2026-10-15T01:46:15+00:00IFS HRES: 10.7% · 2026-10-15T02:31:27+00:00IFS HRES: 10.7% · 2026-10-15T03:16:33+00:00ICON: 49.2% · 2026-10-14T15:11:58+00:00ICON: 49.2% · 2026-10-14T15:57:51+00:00ICON: 49.2% · 2026-10-14T16:43:01+00:00ICON: 49.2% · 2026-10-14T17:28:09+00:00ICON: 49.2% · 2026-10-14T18:13:18+00:00ICON: 49.2% · 2026-10-14T18:58:24+00:00ICON: 31.0% · 2026-10-14T19:43:31+00:00ICON: 31.0% · 2026-10-14T20:28:46+00:00ICON: 31.0% · 2026-10-14T21:13:54+00:00ICON: 31.0% · 2026-10-14T21:59:00+00:00ICON: 31.0% · 2026-10-14T22:44:07+00:00ICON: 31.0% · 2026-10-14T23:29:16+00:00ICON: 31.0% · 2026-10-15T00:14:37+00:00ICON: 31.0% · 2026-10-15T01:01:06+00:00ICON: 31.0% · 2026-10-15T01:46:15+00:00ICON: 31.0% · 2026-10-15T02:31:27+00:00ICON: 31.0% · 2026-10-15T03:16:33+00:0010-14 15:1110-14 21:1310-15 03:16
AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON
2026-10-15T03:16:33+00:00 · UTC
View the forecast data
UTCAIFSEPSWN2HRESICON
2026-10-14T15:11:58+00:0044.0%17.2%63.7%14.5%49.2%
2026-10-14T15:57:51+00:0044.0%17.2%63.7%14.5%49.2%
2026-10-14T16:43:01+00:0044.0%17.2%63.7%14.5%49.2%
2026-10-14T17:28:09+00:0044.0%17.2%57.5%14.5%49.2%
2026-10-14T18:13:18+00:0044.0%17.2%57.5%14.5%49.2%
2026-10-14T18:58:24+00:0044.0%17.2%57.5%14.5%49.2%
2026-10-14T19:43:31+00:0061.1%17.2%57.5%10.7%31.0%
2026-10-14T20:28:46+00:0061.1%17.2%57.5%10.7%31.0%
2026-10-14T21:13:54+00:0061.1%17.2%57.5%10.7%31.0%
2026-10-14T21:59:00+00:0061.1%17.2%57.5%10.7%31.0%
2026-10-14T22:44:07+00:0061.1%17.2%57.5%10.7%31.0%
2026-10-14T23:29:16+00:0061.1%17.2%64.7%10.7%31.0%
2026-10-15T00:14:37+00:0061.1%17.2%64.7%10.7%31.0%
2026-10-15T01:01:06+00:0061.1%17.2%64.7%10.7%31.0%
2026-10-15T01:46:15+00:0064.4%17.2%64.7%10.7%31.0%
2026-10-15T02:31:27+00:0064.4%17.2%64.7%10.7%31.0%
2026-10-15T03:16:33+00:0064.4%17.2%64.7%10.7%31.0%
THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODELYESMEANSPREAD σINITIALIZATION UTCBRIER ↓
WeatherNext 265%62.9°F3.7°F2026-10-14 12:000.4186
AIFS Single64%63.2°F4.6°F2026-10-14 18:000.4147
National Blend55%62.0°F4.3°F2026-10-14 06:000.2992
NWS forecast55%62.0°F4.5°F2026-10-14 14:000.2970
ICON31%59.1°F4.8°F2026-10-14 12:000.0961
IFS Ensemble17%58.0°F3.7°F2026-10-14 00:000.0296
IFS HRES11%55.3°F5.0°F2026-10-14 12:000.0114

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 62°F · KPHL

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KPHL-20261018-TMAX-GE62
Opened Oct 14 · 15:11 UTC

Original listing: Philadelphia high ≥ 62°F · Sun Oct 18

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗