KPHL / Sun Oct 18 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Philadelphia, PAHigh ≤ 55°F

FINAL OUTCOMENOOct 18 · 04:13 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

25%

17%

<1%

Consensus

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

ICONYES 12.8¢Risks 12.75u

WN2NO 87.2¢Risks 87.25u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

ICON +87.25u · WN2 −87.25u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-18T04:13:38+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-14T10:32:05+00:00	18.6%	11.8%	3.3%	44.4%	11.4%
2026-10-14T11:20:30+00:00	18.6%	27.3%	2.5%	44.4%	11.4%
2026-10-14T12:06:10+00:00	18.6%	27.3%	2.5%	44.4%	11.4%
2026-10-14T12:51:18+00:00	18.6%	27.3%	2.5%	44.4%	11.4%
2026-10-14T13:36:25+00:00	12.5%	27.3%	2.5%	44.4%	11.4%
2026-10-14T14:26:47+00:00	12.5%	27.3%	2.5%	44.4%	11.1%
2026-10-14T15:11:58+00:00	12.5%	25.0%	2.5%	44.4%	11.1%
2026-10-14T15:57:51+00:00	12.5%	25.0%	2.5%	44.4%	11.1%
2026-10-14T16:43:01+00:00	12.5%	25.0%	2.5%	44.4%	11.1%
2026-10-14T17:28:09+00:00	12.5%	25.0%	3.6%	44.4%	11.1%
2026-10-14T18:13:18+00:00	12.5%	25.0%	3.6%	44.4%	11.1%
2026-10-14T18:58:24+00:00	12.5%	25.0%	3.6%	44.4%	11.1%
2026-10-14T19:43:31+00:00	5.6%	25.0%	3.6%	51.6%	22.8%
2026-10-14T20:28:46+00:00	5.6%	25.0%	3.6%	51.6%	22.8%
2026-10-14T21:13:54+00:00	5.6%	25.0%	3.6%	51.6%	22.8%
2026-10-14T21:59:00+00:00	5.6%	25.0%	3.6%	51.6%	22.8%
2026-10-14T22:44:07+00:00	5.6%	25.0%	3.6%	51.6%	22.8%
2026-10-14T23:29:16+00:00	5.6%	25.0%	2.3%	51.6%	22.8%
2026-10-15T00:14:37+00:00	5.6%	25.0%	2.3%	51.6%	22.8%
2026-10-15T01:01:06+00:00	5.6%	25.0%	2.3%	51.6%	22.8%
2026-10-15T01:46:15+00:00	4.7%	25.0%	2.3%	51.6%	22.8%
2026-10-15T02:31:27+00:00	4.7%	25.0%	2.3%	51.6%	22.8%
2026-10-15T03:16:33+00:00	4.7%	25.0%	2.3%	51.6%	22.8%
2026-10-15T04:01:44+00:00	4.7%	25.0%	2.3%	51.6%	22.8%
2026-10-15T04:47:49+00:00	4.7%	25.0%	2.3%	51.6%	22.8%
2026-10-15T05:33:15+00:00	4.7%	25.0%	1.3%	51.6%	22.8%
2026-10-15T06:18:25+00:00	4.7%	25.0%	1.3%	51.6%	22.8%
2026-10-15T07:03:33+00:00	4.7%	25.0%	1.3%	51.6%	22.8%
2026-10-15T07:48:51+00:00	4.7%	25.0%	1.3%	41.1%	15.1%
2026-10-15T08:35:48+00:00	4.7%	25.0%	1.3%	41.1%	15.1%
2026-10-15T09:21:01+00:00	4.7%	25.0%	1.3%	41.1%	15.1%
2026-10-15T10:06:51+00:00	4.7%	25.0%	1.3%	41.1%	15.1%
2026-10-15T10:52:48+00:00	4.7%	25.0%	1.3%	41.1%	15.1%
2026-10-15T11:39:03+00:00	4.7%	25.0%	0.8%	41.1%	15.1%
2026-10-15T12:24:48+00:00	4.7%	19.3%	0.8%	41.1%	15.1%
2026-10-15T13:10:03+00:00	4.7%	19.3%	0.8%	41.1%	15.1%
2026-10-15T13:55:46+00:00	2.4%	19.5%	0.8%	41.1%	15.1%
2026-10-15T14:48:22+00:00	2.4%	19.5%	0.8%	41.1%	15.1%
2026-10-15T15:33:36+00:00	2.4%	17.8%	0.8%	41.1%	15.1%
2026-10-15T16:19:53+00:00	2.4%	17.8%	0.8%	41.1%	15.1%
2026-10-15T17:05:19+00:00	2.4%	17.8%	0.3%	41.1%	15.1%
2026-10-15T17:50:32+00:00	2.4%	17.8%	0.3%	41.1%	15.1%
2026-10-15T18:35:52+00:00	2.4%	17.8%	0.3%	41.1%	15.1%
2026-10-15T19:21:05+00:00	2.4%	17.8%	0.3%	41.1%	15.1%
2026-10-15T20:06:12+00:00	3.1%	17.8%	0.3%	25.1%	11.3%
2026-10-15T20:51:26+00:00	3.1%	17.8%	0.3%	25.1%	11.3%
2026-10-15T21:36:40+00:00	3.1%	17.8%	0.3%	25.1%	11.3%
2026-10-15T22:21:47+00:00	3.1%	17.8%	0.3%	25.1%	11.3%
2026-10-15T23:06:58+00:00	3.1%	17.8%	0.7%	25.1%	11.3%
2026-10-15T23:52:12+00:00	3.1%	17.8%	0.7%	25.1%	11.3%
2026-10-16T00:37:20+00:00	3.1%	17.8%	0.7%	25.1%	11.3%
2026-10-16T01:22:40+00:00	4.0%	17.8%	0.7%	25.1%	11.3%
2026-10-16T02:07:56+00:00	4.0%	17.8%	0.7%	25.1%	11.3%
2026-10-16T02:53:26+00:00	4.0%	17.8%	0.7%	25.1%	11.3%
2026-10-16T03:38:37+00:00	4.0%	17.8%	0.7%	25.1%	11.3%
2026-10-16T04:23:47+00:00	4.0%	17.8%	0.7%	25.1%	11.3%
2026-10-16T05:10:22+00:00	4.0%	17.8%	1.0%	25.1%	11.3%
2026-10-16T05:55:47+00:00	4.0%	17.8%	1.0%	25.1%	11.3%
2026-10-16T06:41:00+00:00	4.0%	17.8%	1.0%	25.1%	11.3%
2026-10-16T07:26:11+00:00	3.6%	17.8%	1.0%	25.1%	14.2%
2026-10-16T08:11:21+00:00	3.6%	17.8%	1.0%	25.1%	14.2%
2026-10-16T08:56:31+00:00	3.6%	17.8%	1.0%	25.1%	14.2%
2026-10-16T09:41:40+00:00	3.6%	17.8%	1.0%	25.1%	14.2%
2026-10-16T10:26:46+00:00	3.6%	17.8%	1.0%	25.1%	14.2%
2026-10-16T11:12:02+00:00	3.6%	24.1%	1.7%	25.1%	14.2%
2026-10-16T11:57:35+00:00	3.6%	24.1%	1.7%	25.1%	14.2%
2026-10-16T12:42:45+00:00	3.6%	24.1%	1.7%	25.1%	14.2%
2026-10-16T13:27:55+00:00	2.2%	24.1%	1.7%	34.8%	14.2%
2026-10-16T14:19:39+00:00	2.2%	24.3%	1.7%	34.8%	14.2%
2026-10-16T15:05:06+00:00	2.2%	25.2%	1.7%	34.8%	14.2%
2026-10-16T15:50:53+00:00	2.2%	25.1%	1.7%	34.8%	14.2%
2026-10-16T16:36:03+00:00	2.2%	25.1%	1.7%	34.8%	14.2%
2026-10-16T17:21:16+00:00	2.2%	25.1%	0.6%	34.8%	14.2%
2026-10-16T18:06:35+00:00	2.2%	25.1%	0.6%	34.8%	14.2%
2026-10-16T18:51:41+00:00	2.2%	25.1%	0.6%	34.8%	14.2%
2026-10-16T19:36:49+00:00	3.1%	25.1%	0.6%	34.8%	21.4%
2026-10-16T20:22:21+00:00	3.1%	25.1%	0.6%	34.8%	21.4%
2026-10-16T21:07:44+00:00	3.1%	25.1%	0.6%	34.8%	21.4%
2026-10-16T21:52:50+00:00	3.1%	25.1%	0.6%	34.8%	21.4%
2026-10-16T22:37:57+00:00	3.1%	25.1%	0.6%	21.8%	21.4%
2026-10-16T23:23:14+00:00	3.1%	25.1%	0.7%	21.8%	21.4%
2026-10-17T00:08:45+00:00	3.1%	25.1%	0.7%	21.8%	21.4%
2026-10-17T00:54:54+00:00	3.1%	25.1%	0.7%	21.8%	21.4%
2026-10-17T01:40:03+00:00	2.2%	25.1%	0.7%	21.8%	21.4%
2026-10-17T02:25:16+00:00	2.2%	25.1%	0.7%	21.8%	21.4%
2026-10-17T03:10:26+00:00	2.2%	25.1%	0.7%	21.8%	21.4%
2026-10-17T03:55:35+00:00	2.2%	25.1%	0.7%	21.8%	21.4%
2026-10-17T04:40:52+00:00	2.2%	25.1%	0.7%	21.8%	21.4%
2026-10-17T05:27:59+00:00	2.2%	25.1%	0.7%	21.8%	21.4%
2026-10-17T06:13:33+00:00	2.2%	25.1%	0.4%	21.8%	21.4%
2026-10-17T06:58:42+00:00	2.2%	25.1%	0.4%	21.8%	21.4%
2026-10-17T07:43:56+00:00	1.8%	25.1%	0.4%	21.8%	23.1%
2026-10-17T08:30:36+00:00	1.8%	25.1%	0.4%	21.8%	23.1%
2026-10-17T09:16:22+00:00	1.8%	25.1%	0.4%	21.8%	23.1%
2026-10-17T10:01:47+00:00	1.8%	25.1%	0.4%	21.8%	23.1%
2026-10-17T10:46:52+00:00	1.8%	25.1%	0.4%	21.8%	23.1%
2026-10-17T11:31:57+00:00	1.8%	6.1%	0.4%	21.8%	23.1%
2026-10-17T12:17:25+00:00	1.8%	6.1%	0.4%	21.8%	23.1%
2026-10-17T13:02:31+00:00	1.8%	6.1%	0.4%	21.8%	23.1%
2026-10-17T13:47:45+00:00	1.7%	6.1%	0.4%	21.8%	23.1%
2026-10-17T14:39:14+00:00	1.7%	6.5%	0.4%	21.8%	23.0%
2026-10-17T15:24:25+00:00	1.7%	5.7%	0.4%	21.8%	23.0%
2026-10-17T16:10:29+00:00	1.7%	5.7%	0.4%	21.8%	23.0%
2026-10-17T16:55:36+00:00	1.7%	5.7%	0.4%	21.8%	23.0%
2026-10-17T17:40:45+00:00	1.7%	5.7%	0.4%	21.8%	23.0%
2026-10-17T18:25:54+00:00	1.7%	5.7%	0.4%	21.8%	23.0%
2026-10-17T19:11:00+00:00	1.7%	5.7%	0.4%	21.8%	23.0%
2026-10-17T19:56:08+00:00	2.4%	5.7%	0.4%	16.7%	24.8%
2026-10-17T20:41:25+00:00	2.4%	5.7%	0.4%	16.7%	24.8%
2026-10-17T21:26:35+00:00	2.4%	5.7%	0.4%	16.7%	24.8%
2026-10-17T22:11:50+00:00	2.4%	5.7%	0.4%	16.7%	24.8%
2026-10-17T22:56:58+00:00	2.4%	5.7%	0.7%	16.7%	24.8%
2026-10-17T23:42:09+00:00	2.4%	5.7%	0.7%	16.7%	24.8%
2026-10-18T00:27:21+00:00	2.4%	5.7%	0.7%	16.7%	24.8%
2026-10-18T01:12:37+00:00	2.4%	5.7%	0.7%	16.7%	24.8%
2026-10-18T01:58:00+00:00	1.7%	5.7%	0.7%	16.7%	24.8%
2026-10-18T02:43:18+00:00	1.7%	5.7%	0.7%	16.7%	24.8%
2026-10-18T03:28:25+00:00	1.7%	5.7%	0.7%	16.7%	24.8%
2026-10-18T04:13:38+00:00	1.7%	5.7%	0.7%	16.7%	24.8%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
ICON	25%	57.9°F	3.5°F	2026-10-17 12:00	0.0615
IFS HRES	17%	59.1°F	3.7°F	2026-10-17 12:00	0.0279
IFS Ensemble	6%	60.3°F	3.0°F	2026-10-17 00:00	0.0032
NWS forecast	5%	59.0°F	2.1°F	2026-10-18 03:00	0.0027
National Blend	4%	59.0°F	2.0°F	2026-10-17 06:00	0.0015
AIFS Single	2%	63.9°F	3.9°F	2026-10-17 18:00	0.0003
WeatherNext 2	<1%	62.7°F	2.9°F	2026-10-17 12:00	0.0000

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≤ 55°F · KPHL

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KPHL-20261018-TMAX-LE55
Opened Oct 14 · 10:32 UTC

Original listing: Philadelphia stays cold-for-here: high ≤ 55°F · Sun Oct 18

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗