KPHL / Mon Oct 19 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Philadelphia, PAHigh ≥ 60°F

FINAL OUTCOMEYESOct 17 · 14:39 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

>99%

99%

93%

91%

90%

Consensus

97%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 94.8¢Risks 23.70u

ICONNO 5.2¢Risks 1.30u

25 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +1.30u · ICON −1.30u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-04T06:00:00+00:00	7.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T12:00:00+00:00	57.9%	—	—	—	—	41.0%
2026-10-04T18:00:00+00:00	50.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T00:00:00+00:00	83.2%	—	—	—	—	81.1%
2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:00	90.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	71.7%	—	—	—	—	75.2%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	48.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	65.5%	—	—	—	—	79.6%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	20.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	81.8%	—	—	—	—	65.5%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	90.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	79.6%	—	—	—	—	63.1%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	86.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	98.7%	—	—	—	—	68.4%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	92.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	92.1%	—	—	—	—	67.5%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	24.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	97.9%	—	—	—	—	68.5%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	20.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	44.0%	—	—	—	—	60.9%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	27.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	17.7%	—	—	—	—	76.2%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	66.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	50.0%	—	—	—	—	74.6%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	38.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	77.6%	—	3.1%	—	—	77.2%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	82.7%	—	17.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	74.6%	—	—	—	—	69.8%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	77.0%	—	25.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	87.4%	—	60.3%	—	—	79.8%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	86.0%	—	78.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	77.2%	24.9%	82.4%	—	—	77.7%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	77.1%	—	81.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	78.6%	28.1%	74.3%	42.3%	—	74.8%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	83.9%	—	81.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	82.5%	92.4%	70.9%	87.6%	—	76.8%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	79.0%	—	95.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	84.9%	94.4%	95.4%	83.5%	—	76.6%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	75.3%	—	95.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	80.0%	90.0%	93.8%	55.6%	—	62.5%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	77.5%	5.5%	93.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	82.2%	77.5%	89.2%	20.1%	—	57.5%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	85.8%	74.0%	88.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	62.1%	79.2%	83.3%	7.7%	—	60.4%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	88.8%	86.5%	86.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	66.1%	80.4%	90.6%	63.6%	—	58.2%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	82.3%	68.2%	44.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	69.6%	92.1%	63.4%	60.6%	—	26.3%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	76.6%	92.0%	2.8%	—	—	37.2%
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	84.3%	89.2%	51.0%	79.5%	—	67.0%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	90.4%	95.3%	69.3%	—	—	77.2%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	92.3%	90.6%	73.6%	91.9%	0.0%	79.4%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	95.2%	73.3%	87.7%	2.2%	—	83.9%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	92.8%	68.0%	87.3%	96.2%	73.0%	84.7%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	93.4%	95.5%	86.8%	95.5%	—	79.2%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	94.5%	82.6%	94.1%	94.8%	0.0%	85.6%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	94.4%	89.1%	96.3%	90.8%	—	78.1%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	96.3%	91.1%	96.3%	91.1%	82.7%	88.7%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	98.0%	95.7%	97.3%	94.2%	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	98.7%	95.3%	97.7%	95.3%	97.3%	88.5%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	98.5%	94.0%	98.7%	92.0%	—	83.8%
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	99.6%	96.6%	99.2%	96.3%	98.2%	91.1%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	99.8%	99.8%	99.5%	—	96.3%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	>99%	68.5°F	3.1°F	2026-10-17 00:00	0.0000
AIFS Single	99%	68.7°F	4.1°F	2026-10-17 06:00	0.0001
IFS Ensemble	93%	64.9°F	3.7°F	2026-10-17 00:00	0.0052
National Blend	92%	64.0°F	3.2°F	2026-10-17 06:00	0.0069
IFS HRES	91%	65.0°F	4.1°F	2026-10-17 00:00	0.0081
ICON	90%	64.0°F	3.5°F	2026-10-17 00:00	0.0104
NWS forecast	56%	60.0°F	3.4°F	2026-10-17 03:00	0.1954

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 60°F · KPHL

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KPHL-20261019-TMAX-GE60
Opened Oct 17 · 04:40 UTC

Original listing: Philadelphia high ≥ 60°F · Mon Oct 19

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗