KPHL / Mon Oct 19 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Philadelphia, PAHigh ≥ 60°F

FINAL OUTCOMEYESOct 17 · 14:39 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

>99%

99%

93%

91%

90%

Consensus

97%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 94.8¢Risks 23.70u

ICONNO 5.2¢Risks 1.30u

25 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +1.30u · ICON −1.30u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-17T14:39:14+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-17T04:40:52+00:00	97.5%	56.8%	99.7%	84.8%	91.7%
2026-10-17T05:27:59+00:00	97.5%	56.8%	99.7%	84.8%	91.7%
2026-10-17T06:13:33+00:00	97.5%	56.8%	99.8%	84.8%	91.7%
2026-10-17T06:58:42+00:00	97.5%	56.8%	99.8%	84.8%	91.7%
2026-10-17T07:43:56+00:00	98.3%	56.8%	99.8%	91.0%	89.8%
2026-10-17T08:30:36+00:00	98.3%	56.8%	99.8%	91.0%	89.8%
2026-10-17T09:16:22+00:00	98.3%	56.8%	99.8%	91.0%	89.8%
2026-10-17T10:01:47+00:00	98.3%	56.8%	99.8%	91.0%	89.8%
2026-10-17T10:46:52+00:00	98.3%	56.8%	99.8%	91.0%	89.8%
2026-10-17T11:31:57+00:00	98.3%	93.2%	99.8%	91.0%	89.8%
2026-10-17T12:17:25+00:00	98.3%	93.2%	99.8%	91.0%	89.8%
2026-10-17T13:02:31+00:00	98.3%	93.2%	99.8%	91.0%	89.8%
2026-10-17T13:47:45+00:00	98.8%	93.2%	99.8%	91.0%	89.8%
2026-10-17T14:39:14+00:00	98.8%	92.8%	99.8%	91.0%	89.8%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	>99%	68.5°F	3.1°F	2026-10-17 00:00	0.0000
AIFS Single	99%	68.7°F	4.1°F	2026-10-17 06:00	0.0001
IFS Ensemble	93%	64.9°F	3.7°F	2026-10-17 00:00	0.0052
National Blend	92%	64.0°F	3.2°F	2026-10-17 06:00	0.0069
IFS HRES	91%	65.0°F	4.1°F	2026-10-17 00:00	0.0081
ICON	90%	64.0°F	3.5°F	2026-10-17 00:00	0.0104
NWS forecast	56%	60.0°F	3.4°F	2026-10-17 03:00	0.1954

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 60°F · KPHL

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KPHL-20261019-TMAX-GE60
Opened Oct 17 · 04:40 UTC

Original listing: Philadelphia high ≥ 60°F · Mon Oct 19

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗