KPHL / Mon Oct 19 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Philadelphia, PAHigh ≥ 64°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST76%Oct 19 · 03:45 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

94%

91%

68%

65%

36%

Consensus

76%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 64.8¢Risks 64.80u

ICONNO 35.2¢Risks 35.20u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +35.20u · ICON −35.20u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-04T06:00:00+00:00	2.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T12:00:00+00:00	36.9%	—	—	—	—	22.4%
2026-10-04T18:00:00+00:00	29.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T00:00:00+00:00	66.5%	—	—	—	—	63.6%
2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:00	78.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	51.6%	—	—	—	—	55.8%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	28.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	44.7%	—	—	—	—	61.5%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	8.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	64.5%	—	—	—	—	44.7%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	77.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	61.5%	—	—	—	—	42.1%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	71.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	95.3%	—	—	—	—	47.9%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	81.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	81.1%	—	—	—	—	46.8%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	11.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	93.3%	—	—	—	—	47.9%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	8.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	24.1%	—	—	—	—	39.1%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	12.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	6.8%	—	—	—	—	55.7%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	44.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	27.8%	—	—	—	—	52.9%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	18.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	56.0%	—	0.7%	—	—	55.4%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	62.7%	—	6.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	51.3%	—	—	—	—	45.6%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	53.8%	—	9.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	68.8%	—	34.8%	—	—	57.1%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	66.1%	—	55.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	52.7%	8.8%	60.0%	—	—	53.4%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	52.1%	—	58.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	53.5%	9.9%	47.9%	18.4%	—	48.6%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	60.6%	—	57.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	58.0%	75.7%	42.7%	66.3%	—	50.0%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	52.2%	—	83.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	60.6%	79.5%	82.1%	58.3%	—	48.5%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	46.1%	—	80.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	51.6%	68.4%	77.0%	25.5%	—	31.6%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	47.5%	0.8%	75.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	53.3%	46.7%	65.5%	4.7%	—	25.8%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	58.5%	41.5%	62.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	28.4%	47.4%	53.5%	1.1%	—	26.9%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	62.4%	58.0%	57.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	30.6%	47.2%	65.3%	28.2%	—	23.7%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	49.0%	31.8%	13.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	32.1%	67.0%	26.3%	24.0%	—	5.4%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	39.1%	65.6%	0.2%	—	—	9.2%
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	49.0%	58.2%	15.7%	41.8%	—	27.6%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	59.5%	73.0%	28.8%	—	—	37.5%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	62.9%	58.7%	32.1%	61.8%	0.0%	39.2%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	70.4%	30.5%	51.1%	0.1%	—	44.4%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	61.5%	24.2%	48.8%	73.0%	28.9%	44.2%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	61.9%	68.5%	46.4%	68.5%	—	34.7%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	63.4%	37.7%	62.3%	64.6%	0.0%	42.6%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	61.5%	47.4%	68.7%	51.3%	—	30.2%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	66.9%	50.0%	66.9%	50.0%	34.3%	44.6%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	74.7%	62.3%	70.0%	56.9%	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	77.8%	58.6%	70.7%	58.6%	68.2%	—

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	94%	68.0°F	2.9°F	2026-10-18 12:00	Pending
AIFS Single	91%	68.7°F	3.9°F	2026-10-18 18:00	Pending
IFS HRES	68%	65.2°F	3.7°F	2026-10-18 12:00	Pending
National Blend	68%	65.0°F	3.3°F	2026-10-18 06:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	65%	64.8°F	3.4°F	2026-10-18 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	56%	64.0°F	3.1°F	2026-10-18 14:00	Pending
ICON	36%	62.2°F	3.5°F	2026-10-18 12:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 64°F · KPHL

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KPHL-20261019-TMAX-GE64
Opened Oct 12 · 07:47 UTC

Original listing: Philadelphia high ≥ 64°F · Mon Oct 19

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗