KPHL / Mon Oct 19 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Philadelphia, PAHigh ≥ 64°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST76%Oct 19 · 03:45 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

94%

91%

68%

65%

36%

Consensus

76%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 64.8¢Risks 64.80u

ICONNO 35.2¢Risks 35.20u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +35.20u · ICON −35.20u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-19T03:45:01+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-12T07:47:41+00:00	76.3%	59.1%	87.5%	79.8%	36.1%
2026-10-12T08:34:21+00:00	76.3%	59.1%	87.5%	79.8%	36.1%
2026-10-12T09:19:35+00:00	76.3%	59.1%	87.5%	79.8%	36.1%
2026-10-12T10:04:56+00:00	76.3%	59.1%	87.5%	79.8%	36.1%
2026-10-12T10:50:06+00:00	76.3%	59.1%	87.5%	79.8%	36.1%
2026-10-13T04:15:12+00:00	81.8%	63.5%	91.4%	74.6%	38.9%
2026-10-13T05:01:42+00:00	81.8%	63.5%	91.4%	74.6%	38.9%
2026-10-13T05:46:49+00:00	81.8%	63.5%	91.4%	74.6%	38.9%
2026-10-13T06:31:59+00:00	81.8%	63.5%	91.4%	74.6%	38.9%
2026-10-13T07:17:15+00:00	81.8%	63.5%	91.4%	74.6%	38.9%
2026-10-13T08:02:32+00:00	80.7%	63.5%	91.4%	64.8%	85.0%
2026-10-13T08:49:38+00:00	80.7%	63.5%	91.4%	64.8%	85.0%
2026-10-13T09:34:43+00:00	80.7%	63.5%	91.4%	64.8%	85.0%
2026-10-13T10:19:51+00:00	80.7%	63.5%	91.4%	64.8%	85.0%
2026-10-13T11:05:09+00:00	80.7%	65.2%	88.1%	64.8%	85.0%
2026-10-13T11:50:33+00:00	80.7%	65.2%	88.1%	64.8%	85.0%
2026-10-13T12:35:47+00:00	80.7%	65.2%	88.1%	64.8%	85.0%
2026-10-13T13:20:53+00:00	80.7%	65.2%	88.1%	64.8%	85.0%
2026-10-13T14:05:59+00:00	76.9%	65.2%	88.1%	64.8%	85.3%
2026-10-13T14:56:01+00:00	76.9%	65.2%	88.1%	64.8%	85.3%
2026-10-15T04:01:44+00:00	81.2%	51.9%	73.7%	36.4%	64.4%
2026-10-15T04:47:49+00:00	81.2%	51.9%	73.7%	36.4%	64.4%
2026-10-15T05:33:15+00:00	81.2%	51.9%	88.3%	36.4%	64.4%
2026-10-15T06:18:25+00:00	81.2%	51.9%	88.3%	36.4%	64.4%
2026-10-15T07:03:33+00:00	81.2%	51.9%	88.3%	36.4%	64.4%
2026-10-15T07:48:51+00:00	60.3%	51.9%	88.3%	28.1%	61.4%
2026-10-15T08:35:48+00:00	60.3%	51.9%	88.3%	28.1%	61.4%
2026-10-15T09:21:01+00:00	60.3%	51.9%	88.3%	28.1%	61.4%
2026-10-15T10:06:51+00:00	60.3%	51.9%	88.3%	28.1%	61.4%
2026-10-15T10:52:48+00:00	60.3%	51.9%	88.3%	28.1%	61.4%
2026-10-15T11:39:03+00:00	60.3%	51.9%	87.1%	28.1%	61.4%
2026-10-15T12:24:48+00:00	60.3%	48.3%	87.1%	28.1%	61.4%
2026-10-15T13:10:03+00:00	60.3%	48.3%	87.1%	28.1%	61.4%
2026-10-15T13:55:46+00:00	84.7%	48.3%	87.1%	28.1%	61.3%
2026-10-15T14:48:22+00:00	84.7%	48.3%	87.1%	28.1%	61.3%
2026-10-15T15:33:36+00:00	84.7%	49.1%	87.1%	28.1%	61.3%
2026-10-15T16:19:53+00:00	84.7%	49.1%	87.1%	28.1%	61.3%
2026-10-15T17:05:19+00:00	84.7%	49.1%	96.2%	28.1%	61.3%
2026-10-15T17:50:32+00:00	84.7%	49.1%	96.2%	28.1%	61.3%
2026-10-15T18:35:52+00:00	84.7%	49.1%	96.2%	28.1%	61.3%
2026-10-15T19:21:05+00:00	84.7%	49.1%	96.2%	28.1%	61.3%
2026-10-15T20:06:12+00:00	62.8%	49.1%	96.2%	41.3%	61.3%
2026-10-15T20:51:26+00:00	62.8%	49.1%	96.2%	41.3%	61.3%
2026-10-15T21:36:40+00:00	62.8%	49.1%	96.2%	41.3%	61.3%
2026-10-15T22:21:47+00:00	62.8%	49.1%	96.2%	41.3%	61.3%
2026-10-15T23:06:58+00:00	62.8%	49.1%	87.6%	41.3%	61.3%
2026-10-15T23:52:12+00:00	62.8%	49.1%	87.6%	41.3%	61.3%
2026-10-16T00:37:20+00:00	62.8%	49.1%	87.6%	41.3%	61.3%
2026-10-16T01:22:40+00:00	77.1%	49.1%	87.6%	41.3%	61.3%
2026-10-16T02:07:56+00:00	77.1%	49.1%	87.6%	41.3%	61.3%
2026-10-16T02:53:26+00:00	77.1%	49.1%	87.6%	41.3%	61.3%
2026-10-16T03:38:37+00:00	77.1%	49.1%	87.6%	41.3%	61.3%
2026-10-16T04:23:47+00:00	77.1%	49.1%	87.6%	41.3%	61.3%
2026-10-16T05:10:22+00:00	77.1%	49.1%	89.7%	41.3%	61.3%
2026-10-16T05:55:47+00:00	77.1%	49.1%	89.7%	41.3%	61.3%
2026-10-16T06:41:00+00:00	77.1%	49.1%	89.7%	41.3%	61.3%
2026-10-16T07:26:11+00:00	65.4%	49.1%	89.7%	41.3%	73.6%
2026-10-16T08:11:21+00:00	65.4%	49.1%	89.7%	41.3%	73.6%
2026-10-16T08:56:31+00:00	65.4%	49.1%	89.7%	41.3%	73.6%
2026-10-16T09:41:40+00:00	65.4%	49.1%	89.7%	41.3%	73.6%
2026-10-16T10:26:46+00:00	65.4%	49.1%	89.7%	41.3%	73.6%
2026-10-16T11:12:02+00:00	65.4%	21.5%	80.5%	41.3%	73.6%
2026-10-16T11:57:35+00:00	65.4%	21.5%	80.5%	41.3%	73.6%
2026-10-16T12:42:45+00:00	65.4%	21.5%	80.5%	41.3%	73.6%
2026-10-16T13:27:55+00:00	72.0%	21.5%	80.5%	6.1%	73.6%
2026-10-16T14:19:39+00:00	72.0%	21.6%	80.5%	6.1%	73.6%
2026-10-18T04:13:38+00:00	85.5%	66.0%	93.5%	76.0%	22.3%
2026-10-18T05:00:10+00:00	85.5%	66.0%	94.3%	76.0%	22.3%
2026-10-18T05:45:17+00:00	85.5%	66.0%	94.3%	76.0%	22.3%
2026-10-18T06:30:24+00:00	85.5%	66.0%	94.3%	76.0%	22.3%
2026-10-18T07:15:31+00:00	85.5%	66.0%	94.3%	76.0%	22.3%
2026-10-18T08:00:47+00:00	86.8%	66.0%	94.3%	66.6%	25.7%
2026-10-18T08:47:08+00:00	86.8%	66.0%	94.3%	66.6%	25.7%
2026-10-18T09:32:15+00:00	86.8%	66.0%	94.3%	66.6%	25.7%
2026-10-18T10:17:23+00:00	86.8%	66.0%	94.3%	66.6%	25.7%
2026-10-18T11:02:32+00:00	86.8%	71.1%	92.6%	66.6%	25.7%
2026-10-18T11:48:10+00:00	86.8%	71.1%	92.6%	66.6%	25.7%
2026-10-18T12:33:24+00:00	86.8%	71.1%	92.6%	66.6%	25.7%
2026-10-18T13:18:58+00:00	86.8%	71.1%	92.6%	66.6%	25.7%
2026-10-18T14:04:06+00:00	85.7%	70.7%	92.6%	66.7%	25.9%
2026-10-18T14:55:27+00:00	85.7%	70.7%	92.6%	66.7%	25.9%
2026-10-18T15:41:24+00:00	85.7%	64.7%	92.6%	66.7%	25.9%
2026-10-18T16:26:44+00:00	85.7%	64.7%	92.6%	66.7%	25.9%
2026-10-18T17:12:02+00:00	85.7%	64.7%	92.6%	66.7%	25.9%
2026-10-18T17:57:14+00:00	85.7%	64.7%	92.6%	66.7%	25.9%
2026-10-18T18:42:44+00:00	85.7%	64.7%	92.6%	66.7%	25.9%
2026-10-18T19:27:51+00:00	87.8%	64.7%	92.6%	67.7%	35.7%
2026-10-18T20:13:03+00:00	87.8%	64.7%	92.6%	67.7%	35.7%
2026-10-18T20:58:13+00:00	87.8%	64.7%	92.6%	67.7%	35.7%
2026-10-18T21:43:22+00:00	87.8%	64.7%	92.6%	67.7%	35.7%
2026-10-18T22:28:30+00:00	87.8%	64.7%	92.6%	67.7%	35.7%
2026-10-18T23:13:37+00:00	87.8%	64.7%	93.9%	67.7%	35.7%
2026-10-18T23:58:48+00:00	87.8%	64.7%	93.9%	67.7%	35.7%
2026-10-19T00:44:03+00:00	87.8%	64.7%	93.9%	67.7%	35.7%
2026-10-19T01:29:27+00:00	90.7%	64.7%	93.9%	67.7%	35.7%
2026-10-19T02:14:42+00:00	90.7%	64.7%	93.9%	67.7%	35.7%
2026-10-19T02:59:51+00:00	90.7%	64.7%	93.9%	67.7%	35.7%
2026-10-19T03:45:01+00:00	90.7%	64.7%	93.9%	67.7%	35.7%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	94%	68.0°F	2.9°F	2026-10-18 12:00	Pending
AIFS Single	91%	68.7°F	3.9°F	2026-10-18 18:00	Pending
IFS HRES	68%	65.2°F	3.7°F	2026-10-18 12:00	Pending
National Blend	68%	65.0°F	3.3°F	2026-10-18 06:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	65%	64.8°F	3.4°F	2026-10-18 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	56%	64.0°F	3.1°F	2026-10-18 14:00	Pending
ICON	36%	62.2°F	3.5°F	2026-10-18 12:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 64°F · KPHL

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KPHL-20261019-TMAX-GE64
Opened Oct 12 · 07:47 UTC

Original listing: Philadelphia high ≥ 64°F · Mon Oct 19

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗