KPHL / Mon Oct 19 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Philadelphia, PAHigh ≥ 66°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST62%Oct 19 · 06:47 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

84%

79%

47%

42%

18%

Consensus

62%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 50.8¢Risks 50.85u

ICONNO 49.2¢Risks 49.15u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +49.15u · ICON −49.15u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-19T06:47:18+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-12T11:35:18+00:00	64.0%	42.6%	56.4%	69.9%	28.8%
2026-10-12T12:20:45+00:00	64.0%	51.6%	56.4%	69.9%	28.8%
2026-10-12T13:05:53+00:00	64.0%	51.6%	56.4%	69.9%	28.8%
2026-10-12T13:51:01+00:00	64.0%	51.6%	56.4%	69.9%	28.8%
2026-10-12T14:41:14+00:00	63.9%	51.6%	56.4%	69.9%	28.9%
2026-10-12T15:26:33+00:00	63.9%	51.6%	56.4%	69.9%	28.9%
2026-10-12T16:12:54+00:00	63.9%	48.5%	56.4%	69.9%	28.9%
2026-10-12T16:58:00+00:00	63.9%	48.5%	77.2%	69.9%	28.9%
2026-10-12T17:43:11+00:00	63.9%	48.5%	77.2%	69.9%	28.9%
2026-10-12T18:28:17+00:00	63.9%	48.5%	77.2%	69.9%	28.9%
2026-10-12T19:13:24+00:00	63.9%	48.5%	77.2%	69.9%	28.9%
2026-10-12T19:58:30+00:00	64.6%	48.5%	77.2%	63.6%	31.4%
2026-10-12T20:43:40+00:00	64.6%	48.5%	77.2%	63.6%	31.4%
2026-10-12T21:28:47+00:00	64.6%	48.5%	77.2%	63.6%	31.4%
2026-10-12T22:13:54+00:00	64.6%	48.5%	77.2%	63.6%	31.4%
2026-10-12T22:59:03+00:00	64.6%	48.5%	83.3%	63.6%	31.4%
2026-10-12T23:44:16+00:00	64.6%	48.5%	83.3%	63.6%	31.4%
2026-10-13T00:29:22+00:00	64.6%	48.5%	83.3%	63.6%	31.4%
2026-10-13T01:14:37+00:00	64.6%	48.5%	83.3%	63.6%	31.4%
2026-10-13T01:59:44+00:00	70.9%	48.5%	83.3%	63.6%	31.4%
2026-10-13T02:44:54+00:00	70.9%	48.5%	83.3%	63.6%	31.4%
2026-10-13T03:29:59+00:00	70.9%	48.5%	83.3%	63.6%	31.4%
2026-10-13T15:41:12+00:00	64.0%	44.8%	77.1%	53.0%	77.8%
2026-10-13T16:27:00+00:00	64.0%	44.8%	77.1%	53.0%	77.8%
2026-10-13T17:12:07+00:00	64.0%	44.8%	77.8%	53.0%	77.8%
2026-10-13T17:57:15+00:00	64.0%	44.8%	77.8%	53.0%	77.8%
2026-10-13T18:42:21+00:00	64.0%	44.8%	77.8%	53.0%	77.8%
2026-10-13T19:27:26+00:00	71.4%	44.8%	77.8%	53.0%	79.9%
2026-10-13T20:12:32+00:00	71.4%	44.8%	77.8%	53.0%	79.9%
2026-10-13T20:57:40+00:00	71.4%	44.8%	77.8%	53.0%	79.9%
2026-10-13T21:42:53+00:00	71.4%	44.8%	77.8%	53.0%	79.9%
2026-10-13T22:28:22+00:00	71.4%	44.8%	77.8%	48.8%	79.9%
2026-10-13T23:13:31+00:00	71.4%	44.8%	83.1%	48.8%	79.9%
2026-10-13T23:58:42+00:00	71.4%	44.8%	83.1%	48.8%	79.9%
2026-10-14T00:43:51+00:00	71.4%	44.8%	83.1%	48.8%	79.9%
2026-10-14T01:29:06+00:00	57.5%	44.8%	83.1%	48.8%	79.9%
2026-10-14T02:14:16+00:00	57.5%	44.8%	83.1%	48.8%	79.9%
2026-10-14T02:59:28+00:00	57.5%	44.8%	83.1%	48.8%	79.9%
2026-10-14T03:45:25+00:00	57.5%	44.8%	83.1%	48.8%	79.9%
2026-10-14T04:30:43+00:00	57.5%	44.8%	83.1%	48.8%	79.9%
2026-10-14T05:15:50+00:00	57.5%	44.8%	83.1%	48.8%	79.9%
2026-10-14T06:00:57+00:00	57.5%	44.8%	83.1%	48.8%	79.9%
2026-10-14T06:46:06+00:00	57.5%	44.8%	83.1%	48.8%	79.9%
2026-10-14T07:31:24+00:00	63.4%	44.8%	83.1%	48.8%	69.5%
2026-10-14T08:16:33+00:00	63.4%	44.8%	83.1%	48.8%	69.5%
2026-10-14T09:01:43+00:00	63.4%	44.8%	83.1%	48.8%	69.5%
2026-10-14T09:46:50+00:00	63.4%	44.8%	83.1%	48.8%	69.5%
2026-10-14T10:32:05+00:00	63.4%	44.8%	83.1%	37.1%	69.5%
2026-10-14T11:20:30+00:00	63.4%	31.3%	71.2%	37.1%	69.5%
2026-10-14T12:06:10+00:00	63.4%	31.3%	71.2%	37.1%	69.5%
2026-10-14T12:51:18+00:00	63.4%	31.3%	71.2%	37.1%	69.5%
2026-10-14T13:36:25+00:00	59.6%	31.3%	71.2%	37.1%	69.5%
2026-10-14T14:26:47+00:00	59.5%	31.3%	71.2%	37.1%	69.3%
2026-10-14T15:11:58+00:00	59.5%	33.0%	71.2%	37.1%	69.3%
2026-10-14T15:57:51+00:00	59.5%	33.0%	71.2%	37.1%	69.3%
2026-10-14T16:43:01+00:00	59.5%	33.0%	71.2%	37.1%	69.3%
2026-10-14T17:28:09+00:00	59.5%	33.0%	58.7%	37.1%	69.3%
2026-10-14T18:13:18+00:00	59.5%	33.0%	58.7%	37.1%	69.3%
2026-10-14T18:58:24+00:00	59.5%	33.0%	58.7%	37.1%	69.3%
2026-10-14T19:43:31+00:00	64.9%	33.0%	58.7%	24.4%	51.3%
2026-10-14T20:28:46+00:00	64.9%	33.0%	58.7%	24.4%	51.3%
2026-10-14T21:13:54+00:00	64.9%	33.0%	58.7%	24.4%	51.3%
2026-10-14T21:59:00+00:00	64.9%	33.0%	58.7%	24.4%	51.3%
2026-10-14T22:44:07+00:00	64.9%	33.0%	58.7%	24.4%	51.3%
2026-10-14T23:29:16+00:00	64.9%	33.0%	55.8%	24.4%	51.3%
2026-10-15T00:14:37+00:00	64.9%	33.0%	55.8%	24.4%	51.3%
2026-10-15T01:01:06+00:00	64.9%	33.0%	55.8%	24.4%	51.3%
2026-10-15T01:46:15+00:00	68.5%	33.0%	55.8%	24.4%	51.3%
2026-10-15T02:31:27+00:00	68.5%	33.0%	55.8%	24.4%	51.3%
2026-10-15T03:16:33+00:00	68.5%	33.0%	55.8%	24.4%	51.3%
2026-10-19T04:30:14+00:00	79.2%	41.9%	80.5%	46.8%	17.6%
2026-10-19T05:16:51+00:00	79.2%	41.9%	84.1%	46.8%	17.6%
2026-10-19T06:02:10+00:00	79.2%	41.9%	84.1%	46.8%	17.6%
2026-10-19T06:47:18+00:00	79.2%	41.9%	84.1%	46.8%	17.6%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	84%	68.4°F	2.9°F	2026-10-18 18:00	Pending
AIFS Single	79%	68.7°F	3.9°F	2026-10-18 18:00	Pending
National Blend	67%	66.0°F	1.1°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	59%	66.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-19 03:00	Pending
IFS HRES	47%	65.2°F	3.7°F	2026-10-18 12:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	42%	64.8°F	3.4°F	2026-10-18 00:00	Pending
ICON	18%	62.2°F	3.5°F	2026-10-18 12:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 66°F · KPHL

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KPHL-20261019-TMAX-GE66
Opened Oct 12 · 11:35 UTC

Original listing: Philadelphia high ≥ 66°F · Mon Oct 19

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗