KPHL / Mon Oct 19 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Philadelphia, PAHigh ≥ 66°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST62%Oct 19 · 06:47 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

84%

79%

47%

42%

18%

Consensus

62%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 50.8¢Risks 50.85u

ICONNO 49.2¢Risks 49.15u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +49.15u · ICON −49.15u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-04T06:00:00+00:00	1.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T12:00:00+00:00	27.4%	—	—	—	—	15.2%
2026-10-04T18:00:00+00:00	21.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T00:00:00+00:00	56.4%	—	—	—	—	53.2%
2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:00	70.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	41.0%	—	—	—	—	45.2%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	20.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	34.5%	—	—	—	—	51.1%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	5.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	54.2%	—	—	—	—	34.5%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	68.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	51.1%	—	—	—	—	32.0%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	62.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	92.1%	—	—	—	—	37.5%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	73.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	73.0%	—	—	—	—	36.4%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	6.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	89.1%	—	—	—	—	37.4%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	5.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	16.4%	—	—	—	—	29.1%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	7.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	3.8%	—	—	—	—	44.3%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	33.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	18.9%	—	—	—	—	41.3%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	11.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	44.0%	—	0.3%	—	—	43.4%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	50.6%	—	3.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	38.8%	—	—	—	—	33.5%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	41.1%	—	5.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	56.5%	—	23.6%	—	—	44.2%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	53.3%	—	42.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	39.3%	4.5%	46.6%	—	—	40.0%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	38.5%	—	44.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	39.6%	5.1%	34.3%	10.5%	—	34.9%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	46.4%	—	42.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	43.4%	62.9%	29.1%	52.2%	—	35.7%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	37.5%	—	71.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	45.4%	67.0%	70.4%	43.2%	—	33.7%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	31.2%	—	68.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	35.9%	53.2%	63.3%	14.5%	—	18.9%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	31.9%	0.2%	60.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	36.9%	30.8%	49.2%	1.8%	—	14.3%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	41.5%	26.0%	45.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	15.6%	30.7%	36.3%	0.3%	—	14.6%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	44.6%	40.2%	39.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	16.6%	29.7%	47.2%	14.9%	—	11.9%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	30.9%	17.1%	5.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	17.1%	48.0%	13.1%	11.6%	—	1.8%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	21.9%	46.0%	0.0%	—	—	3.4%
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	29.4%	37.8%	6.4%	23.5%	—	13.4%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	38.5%	53.2%	13.8%	—	—	19.8%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	41.3%	37.1%	15.5%	40.3%	0.0%	20.6%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	48.9%	14.1%	29.6%	0.0%	—	24.0%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	38.5%	10.0%	27.0%	51.2%	12.7%	23.3%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	38.1%	45.2%	24.4%	45.2%	—	16.0%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	38.9%	17.4%	37.7%	40.1%	0.0%	20.8%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	36.1%	23.8%	43.6%	26.9%	—	12.2%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	40.7%	25.1%	40.7%	25.1%	14.1%	21.0%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	48.6%	35.0%	43.1%	30.0%	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	51.4%	30.5%	42.8%	30.5%	40.0%	—

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	84%	68.4°F	2.9°F	2026-10-18 18:00	Pending
AIFS Single	79%	68.7°F	3.9°F	2026-10-18 18:00	Pending
National Blend	67%	66.0°F	1.1°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	59%	66.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-19 03:00	Pending
IFS HRES	47%	65.2°F	3.7°F	2026-10-18 12:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	42%	64.8°F	3.4°F	2026-10-18 00:00	Pending
ICON	18%	62.2°F	3.5°F	2026-10-18 12:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 66°F · KPHL

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KPHL-20261019-TMAX-GE66
Opened Oct 12 · 11:35 UTC

Original listing: Philadelphia high ≥ 66°F · Mon Oct 19

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗