KPHL / Mon Oct 19 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Philadelphia, PAHigh ≥ 77°F

FINAL OUTCOMENOOct 13 · 10:19 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

21%

11%

Consensus

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

ICONYES 11.2¢Risks 5.62u

EPSNO 88.8¢Risks 44.38u

50 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

ICON +44.38u · EPS −44.38u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-04T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T12:00:00+00:00	1.9%	—	—	—	—	0.6%
2026-10-04T18:00:00+00:00	1.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T00:00:00+00:00	9.6%	—	—	—	—	8.3%
2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:00	17.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	4.5%	—	—	—	—	5.6%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	1.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	3.1%	—	—	—	—	7.5%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	8.7%	—	—	—	—	3.1%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	16.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	7.5%	—	—	—	—	2.7%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	12.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	47.9%	—	—	—	—	3.7%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	20.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	19.7%	—	—	—	—	3.5%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	0.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	40.5%	—	—	—	—	3.6%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	0.6%	—	—	—	—	1.9%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	4.4%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	2.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	0.6%	—	—	—	—	3.3%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	0.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	3.4%	—	0.0%	—	—	3.3%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	4.6%	—	0.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	2.2%	—	—	—	—	1.6%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	2.3%	—	0.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	5.1%	—	0.6%	—	—	2.6%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	4.0%	—	2.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	1.6%	0.0%	2.6%	—	—	1.7%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	1.4%	—	2.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	1.4%	0.0%	0.9%	0.1%	—	1.0%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	1.9%	—	1.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	1.5%	4.6%	0.5%	2.5%	—	0.9%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	0.9%	—	6.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	1.3%	4.8%	5.8%	1.1%	—	0.6%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	0.4%	—	4.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	0.5%	1.7%	3.1%	0.1%	—	0.1%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	0.3%	0.0%	2.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	0.4%	0.2%	1.0%	0.0%	—	0.0%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	0.5%	0.1%	0.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.2%	0.3%	0.0%	—	0.0%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	0.4%	0.3%	0.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.1%	0.4%	0.0%	—	0.0%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	0.1%	0.0%	0.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.3%	0.0%	0.0%	—	0.0%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.2%	0.0%	—	—	0.0%
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.1%	0.0%	0.0%	—	0.0%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	0.1%	0.2%	0.0%	—	—	0.0%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	0.1%	0.0%	0.0%	0.1%	0.0%	0.0%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	0.1%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	—	0.0%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.1%	0.0%	0.0%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	—	0.0%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	—	0.0%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	—	0.0%
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	—	0.0%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
ICON	21%	70.8°F	7.0°F	2026-10-13 00:00	0.0437
WeatherNext 2	11%	70.3°F	5.0°F	2026-10-12 18:00	0.0112
AIFS Single	6%	68.1°F	5.3°F	2026-10-13 00:00	0.0032
IFS HRES	6%	66.0°F	6.6°F	2026-10-13 00:00	0.0030
IFS Ensemble	2%	65.3°F	5.2°F	2026-10-12 00:00	0.0003
NWS forecast	2%	64.0°F	5.8°F	2026-10-13 03:00	0.0003
National Blend	<1%	66.0°F	4.4°F	2026-10-13 00:00	0.0001

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 77°F · KPHL

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KPHL-20261019-TMAX-GE77
Opened Oct 12 · 07:47 UTC

Original listing: Philadelphia runs hot-for-here: 77°F+ · Mon Oct 19

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗