KPHL / Tue Oct 20 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Philadelphia, PAHigh ≥ 66°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST92%Oct 17 · 14:39 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

>99%

98%

87%

76%

71%

Consensus

92%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 85.4¢Risks 85.40u

HRESNO 14.6¢Risks 14.60u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +14.60u · HRES −14.60u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:00	57.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	2.4%	—	—	—	—	10.0%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	37.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	51.1%	—	—	—	—	56.9%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	56.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	68.4%	—	—	—	—	43.6%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	90.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	17.5%	—	—	—	—	41.5%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	80.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	63.6%	—	—	—	—	44.2%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	88.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	93.6%	—	—	—	—	40.0%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	42.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	79.2%	—	—	—	—	43.1%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	22.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	37.5%	—	—	—	—	46.8%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	19.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	20.7%	—	—	—	—	52.1%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	72.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	60.9%	—	—	—	—	61.4%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	56.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	83.4%	—	—	—	—	64.4%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	78.3%	—	0.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	75.1%	—	—	—	—	58.7%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	75.9%	—	40.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	88.2%	—	—	—	—	61.4%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	83.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	55.6%	—	60.6%	—	—	60.0%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	76.5%	—	67.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	77.9%	—	66.4%	—	—	55.8%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	84.1%	—	57.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	79.7%	15.1%	78.7%	—	—	60.7%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	75.0%	—	90.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	82.9%	73.7%	83.4%	22.4%	—	61.1%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	64.0%	—	77.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	69.0%	81.1%	63.6%	44.2%	—	47.1%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	63.9%	—	77.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	85.8%	83.5%	74.2%	26.4%	—	40.2%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	85.5%	—	76.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	56.4%	71.9%	65.5%	53.2%	—	40.5%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	83.2%	12.2%	75.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	55.0%	85.7%	74.2%	55.0%	—	40.1%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	78.0%	71.2%	81.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	37.9%	76.6%	75.2%	66.2%	—	20.8%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	79.8%	77.1%	58.9%	—	—	40.2%
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	90.2%	81.6%	81.0%	81.6%	—	56.4%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	91.6%	77.6%	82.9%	—	—	55.7%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	89.3%	69.6%	81.7%	71.3%	—	61.5%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	90.4%	63.7%	82.3%	—	—	54.0%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	88.7%	49.0%	83.0%	68.8%	0.1%	56.1%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	89.9%	67.4%	65.5%	—	—	54.2%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	89.6%	77.0%	83.1%	76.2%	—	55.5%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	88.2%	68.5%	79.4%	1.1%	—	54.5%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	90.6%	72.0%	84.7%	65.9%	0.0%	53.5%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	91.8%	80.1%	84.0%	71.7%	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	93.3%	84.9%	84.9%	74.4%	77.3%	61.1%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	93.6%	82.6%	87.2%	76.2%	—	59.0%
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	93.9%	85.9%	88.0%	71.6%	77.0%	56.7%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	97.0%	90.8%	90.2%	81.8%	—	67.5%
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	97.9%	95.3%	94.5%	89.2%	93.7%	73.2%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	97.8%	—	95.9%	88.0%	—	67.5%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	>99%	74.4°F	3.4°F	2026-10-17 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	98%	74.3°F	4.3°F	2026-10-17 06:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	87%	68.6°F	2.8°F	2026-10-17 00:00	Pending
National Blend	85%	69.0°F	3.3°F	2026-10-17 06:00	Pending
ICON	76%	68.3°F	4.0°F	2026-10-17 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	71%	68.0°F	4.5°F	2026-10-17 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	55%	66.0°F	3.9°F	2026-10-17 03:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 66°F · KPHL

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KPHL-20261020-TMAX-GE66
Opened Oct 15 · 15:33 UTC

Original listing: Philadelphia high ≥ 66°F · Tue Oct 20

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗