KPHL / Tue Oct 20 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Philadelphia, PAHigh ≥ 66°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST92%Oct 17 · 14:39 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

>99%

98%

87%

76%

71%

Consensus

92%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 85.4¢Risks 85.40u

HRESNO 14.6¢Risks 14.60u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +14.60u · HRES −14.60u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-17T14:39:14+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-15T15:33:36+00:00	94.6%	61.0%	95.6%	66.7%	82.5%
2026-10-15T16:19:53+00:00	94.6%	61.0%	95.6%	66.7%	82.5%
2026-10-15T17:05:19+00:00	94.6%	61.0%	98.3%	66.7%	82.5%
2026-10-15T17:50:32+00:00	94.6%	61.0%	98.3%	66.7%	82.5%
2026-10-15T18:35:52+00:00	94.6%	61.0%	98.3%	66.7%	82.5%
2026-10-15T19:21:05+00:00	94.6%	61.0%	98.3%	66.7%	82.5%
2026-10-15T20:06:12+00:00	81.2%	61.0%	98.3%	67.4%	90.4%
2026-10-15T20:51:26+00:00	81.2%	61.0%	98.3%	67.4%	90.4%
2026-10-15T21:36:40+00:00	81.2%	61.0%	98.3%	67.4%	90.4%
2026-10-15T22:21:47+00:00	81.2%	61.0%	98.3%	67.4%	90.4%
2026-10-15T23:06:58+00:00	81.2%	61.0%	96.2%	67.4%	90.4%
2026-10-15T23:52:12+00:00	81.2%	61.0%	96.2%	67.4%	90.4%
2026-10-16T00:37:20+00:00	81.2%	61.0%	96.2%	67.4%	90.4%
2026-10-16T01:22:40+00:00	92.4%	61.0%	96.2%	67.4%	90.4%
2026-10-16T02:07:56+00:00	92.4%	61.0%	96.2%	67.4%	90.4%
2026-10-16T02:53:26+00:00	92.4%	61.0%	96.2%	67.4%	90.4%
2026-10-16T03:38:37+00:00	92.4%	61.0%	96.2%	67.4%	90.4%
2026-10-16T15:05:07+00:00	94.7%	40.0%	95.5%	60.3%	84.8%
2026-10-16T15:50:53+00:00	94.7%	40.0%	95.5%	60.3%	84.8%
2026-10-16T16:36:03+00:00	94.7%	40.0%	95.5%	60.3%	84.8%
2026-10-16T17:21:16+00:00	94.7%	40.0%	99.3%	60.3%	84.8%
2026-10-16T18:06:35+00:00	94.7%	40.0%	99.3%	60.3%	84.8%
2026-10-16T18:51:41+00:00	94.7%	40.0%	99.3%	60.3%	84.8%
2026-10-16T19:36:49+00:00	97.8%	40.0%	99.3%	60.3%	87.5%
2026-10-16T20:22:21+00:00	97.8%	40.0%	99.3%	60.3%	87.5%
2026-10-16T21:07:44+00:00	97.8%	40.0%	99.3%	60.3%	87.5%
2026-10-16T21:52:50+00:00	97.8%	40.0%	99.3%	60.3%	87.5%
2026-10-16T22:37:57+00:00	97.8%	40.0%	99.3%	74.5%	87.5%
2026-10-16T23:23:14+00:00	97.8%	40.0%	99.6%	74.5%	87.5%
2026-10-17T00:08:45+00:00	97.8%	40.0%	99.6%	74.5%	87.5%
2026-10-17T00:54:54+00:00	97.8%	40.0%	99.6%	74.5%	87.5%
2026-10-17T01:40:03+00:00	98.0%	40.0%	99.6%	74.5%	87.5%
2026-10-17T02:25:16+00:00	98.0%	40.0%	99.6%	74.5%	87.5%
2026-10-17T03:10:26+00:00	98.0%	40.0%	99.6%	74.5%	87.5%
2026-10-17T03:55:35+00:00	98.0%	40.0%	99.6%	74.5%	87.5%
2026-10-17T04:40:52+00:00	98.0%	40.0%	99.6%	74.5%	87.5%
2026-10-17T05:27:59+00:00	98.0%	40.0%	99.6%	74.5%	87.5%
2026-10-17T06:13:33+00:00	98.0%	40.0%	99.7%	74.5%	87.5%
2026-10-17T06:58:42+00:00	98.0%	40.0%	99.7%	74.5%	87.5%
2026-10-17T07:43:56+00:00	97.9%	40.0%	99.7%	71.2%	76.0%
2026-10-17T08:30:36+00:00	97.9%	40.0%	99.7%	71.2%	76.0%
2026-10-17T09:16:22+00:00	97.9%	40.0%	99.7%	71.2%	76.0%
2026-10-17T10:01:47+00:00	97.9%	40.0%	99.7%	71.2%	76.0%
2026-10-17T10:46:52+00:00	97.9%	40.0%	99.7%	71.2%	76.0%
2026-10-17T11:31:57+00:00	97.9%	87.4%	99.6%	71.2%	76.0%
2026-10-17T12:17:25+00:00	97.9%	87.4%	99.6%	71.2%	76.0%
2026-10-17T13:02:31+00:00	97.9%	87.4%	99.6%	71.2%	76.0%
2026-10-17T13:47:45+00:00	98.0%	87.4%	99.6%	71.2%	76.0%
2026-10-17T14:39:14+00:00	98.0%	86.6%	99.6%	71.2%	76.0%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	>99%	74.4°F	3.4°F	2026-10-17 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	98%	74.3°F	4.3°F	2026-10-17 06:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	87%	68.6°F	2.8°F	2026-10-17 00:00	Pending
National Blend	85%	69.0°F	3.3°F	2026-10-17 06:00	Pending
ICON	76%	68.3°F	4.0°F	2026-10-17 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	71%	68.0°F	4.5°F	2026-10-17 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	55%	66.0°F	3.9°F	2026-10-17 03:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 66°F · KPHL

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KPHL-20261020-TMAX-GE66
Opened Oct 15 · 15:33 UTC

Original listing: Philadelphia high ≥ 66°F · Tue Oct 20

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗