KPHL / Tue Oct 20 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Philadelphia, PAHigh ≥ 68°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST79%Oct 19 · 14:27 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

97%

94%

57%

52%

51%

Consensus

79%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 74.2¢Risks 74.20u

ICONNO 25.8¢Risks 25.80u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +25.80u · ICON −25.80u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:00	46.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	1.2%	—	—	—	—	6.1%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	27.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	40.5%	—	—	—	—	46.3%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	46.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	58.5%	—	—	—	—	33.5%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	84.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	11.5%	—	—	—	—	31.6%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	71.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	53.2%	—	—	—	—	34.0%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	82.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	89.5%	—	—	—	—	30.1%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	32.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	70.8%	—	—	—	—	33.0%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	15.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	27.9%	—	—	—	—	36.4%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	12.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	13.9%	—	—	—	—	41.5%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	62.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	50.0%	—	—	—	—	50.5%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	45.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	75.3%	—	—	—	—	53.4%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	68.9%	—	0.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	64.9%	—	—	—	—	47.1%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	65.7%	—	29.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	81.1%	—	—	—	—	49.4%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	74.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	43.1%	—	48.1%	—	—	47.5%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	65.6%	—	55.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	67.0%	—	53.9%	—	—	42.9%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	74.7%	—	44.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	68.8%	8.5%	67.6%	—	—	47.3%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	62.9%	—	82.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	72.5%	61.1%	73.1%	13.4%	—	47.2%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	50.0%	—	65.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	55.1%	69.6%	49.3%	30.4%	—	33.0%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	49.2%	—	64.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	75.5%	72.4%	60.6%	15.5%	—	26.4%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	74.7%	—	63.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	40.5%	57.1%	50.0%	37.5%	—	26.1%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	71.0%	5.8%	60.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	38.5%	74.2%	59.1%	38.5%	—	25.1%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	63.4%	55.1%	68.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	22.8%	61.3%	59.6%	49.1%	—	10.5%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	64.9%	61.5%	41.1%	—	—	24.2%
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	79.7%	67.0%	66.1%	67.0%	—	38.2%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	81.7%	61.2%	68.2%	—	—	37.0%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	77.5%	51.0%	66.1%	52.9%	—	42.3%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	78.9%	44.0%	66.5%	—	—	34.4%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	75.7%	29.4%	67.0%	49.0%	0.0%	35.9%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	77.2%	46.8%	44.7%	—	—	33.5%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	76.2%	57.6%	65.9%	56.5%	—	34.1%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	73.3%	46.6%	60.0%	0.2%	—	32.6%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	76.7%	50.0%	66.9%	43.0%	0.0%	31.0%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	78.4%	59.5%	65.3%	48.8%	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	80.9%	65.8%	65.8%	51.2%	55.0%	36.5%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	80.9%	61.5%	68.7%	52.6%	—	33.7%
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	80.9%	65.7%	69.3%	46.0%	52.7%	30.7%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	88.2%	73.5%	72.4%	58.3%	—	40.3%
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	90.5%	82.8%	80.9%	69.5%	78.8%	45.7%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	89.5%	—	83.8%	66.2%	—	38.1%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	97%	73.1°F	2.9°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	94%	73.6°F	3.9°F	2026-10-19 06:00	Pending
National Blend	75%	69.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-19 06:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	57%	68.1°F	3.2°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	56%	68.0°F	3.1°F	2026-10-19 03:00	Pending
IFS HRES	52%	67.7°F	3.7°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
ICON	51%	67.6°F	3.5°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 68°F · KPHL

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KPHL-20261020-TMAX-GE68
Opened Oct 15 · 04:01 UTC

Original listing: Philadelphia high ≥ 68°F · Tue Oct 20

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗