KPHL / Tue Oct 20 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Philadelphia, PAHigh ≥ 68°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST79%Oct 19 · 14:27 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

97%

94%

57%

52%

51%

Consensus

79%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 74.2¢Risks 74.20u

ICONNO 25.8¢Risks 25.80u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +25.80u · ICON −25.80u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-19T14:27:56+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-15T04:01:44+00:00	89.6%	40.4%	76.0%	48.2%	82.9%
2026-10-15T04:47:49+00:00	89.6%	40.4%	76.0%	48.2%	82.9%
2026-10-15T05:33:15+00:00	89.6%	40.4%	90.4%	48.2%	82.9%
2026-10-15T06:18:25+00:00	89.6%	40.4%	90.4%	48.2%	82.9%
2026-10-15T07:03:33+00:00	89.6%	40.4%	90.4%	48.2%	82.9%
2026-10-15T07:48:51+00:00	70.0%	40.4%	90.4%	53.5%	72.2%
2026-10-15T08:35:48+00:00	70.0%	40.4%	90.4%	53.5%	72.2%
2026-10-15T09:21:01+00:00	70.0%	40.4%	90.4%	53.5%	72.2%
2026-10-15T10:06:51+00:00	70.0%	40.4%	90.4%	53.5%	72.2%
2026-10-15T10:52:48+00:00	70.0%	40.4%	90.4%	53.5%	72.2%
2026-10-15T11:39:03+00:00	70.0%	40.4%	88.8%	53.5%	72.2%
2026-10-15T12:24:48+00:00	70.0%	41.7%	88.8%	53.5%	72.2%
2026-10-15T13:10:03+00:00	70.0%	41.7%	88.8%	53.5%	72.2%
2026-10-15T13:55:46+00:00	88.6%	41.7%	88.8%	53.4%	72.6%
2026-10-15T14:48:22+00:00	88.6%	41.7%	88.8%	53.4%	72.6%
2026-10-16T04:23:47+00:00	84.8%	42.6%	90.1%	54.1%	83.4%
2026-10-16T05:10:22+00:00	84.8%	42.6%	85.8%	54.1%	83.4%
2026-10-16T05:55:47+00:00	84.8%	42.6%	85.8%	54.1%	83.4%
2026-10-16T06:41:00+00:00	84.8%	42.6%	85.8%	54.1%	83.4%
2026-10-16T07:26:11+00:00	54.3%	42.6%	85.8%	54.1%	73.1%
2026-10-16T08:11:21+00:00	54.3%	42.6%	85.8%	54.1%	73.1%
2026-10-16T08:56:31+00:00	54.3%	42.6%	85.8%	54.1%	73.1%
2026-10-16T09:41:40+00:00	54.3%	42.6%	85.8%	54.1%	73.1%
2026-10-16T10:26:46+00:00	54.3%	42.6%	85.8%	54.1%	73.1%
2026-10-16T11:12:02+00:00	54.3%	24.5%	87.6%	54.1%	73.1%
2026-10-16T11:57:35+00:00	54.3%	24.5%	87.6%	54.1%	73.1%
2026-10-16T12:42:45+00:00	54.3%	24.5%	87.6%	54.1%	73.1%
2026-10-16T13:27:55+00:00	88.0%	24.5%	87.6%	44.4%	73.1%
2026-10-16T14:19:39+00:00	88.1%	24.5%	87.6%	44.4%	73.1%
2026-10-17T15:24:25+00:00	94.4%	67.1%	98.0%	54.5%	58.0%
2026-10-17T16:10:29+00:00	94.4%	67.1%	98.0%	54.5%	58.0%
2026-10-17T16:55:37+00:00	94.4%	67.1%	97.5%	54.5%	58.0%
2026-10-17T17:40:45+00:00	94.4%	67.1%	97.5%	54.5%	58.0%
2026-10-17T18:25:54+00:00	94.4%	67.1%	97.5%	54.5%	58.0%
2026-10-17T19:11:00+00:00	94.4%	67.1%	97.5%	54.5%	58.0%
2026-10-17T19:56:08+00:00	92.9%	67.1%	97.5%	51.8%	36.2%
2026-10-17T20:41:25+00:00	92.9%	67.1%	97.5%	51.8%	36.2%
2026-10-17T21:26:35+00:00	92.9%	67.1%	97.5%	51.8%	36.2%
2026-10-17T22:11:50+00:00	92.9%	67.1%	97.5%	51.8%	36.2%
2026-10-17T22:56:58+00:00	92.9%	67.1%	95.2%	51.8%	36.2%
2026-10-17T23:42:09+00:00	92.9%	67.1%	95.2%	51.8%	36.2%
2026-10-18T00:27:21+00:00	92.9%	67.1%	95.2%	51.8%	36.2%
2026-10-18T01:12:37+00:00	92.9%	67.1%	95.2%	51.8%	36.2%
2026-10-18T01:58:00+00:00	93.3%	67.1%	95.2%	51.8%	36.2%
2026-10-18T02:43:18+00:00	93.3%	67.1%	95.2%	51.8%	36.2%
2026-10-18T03:28:25+00:00	93.3%	67.1%	95.2%	51.8%	36.2%
2026-10-18T04:13:38+00:00	93.3%	67.1%	95.2%	51.8%	36.2%
2026-10-18T05:00:10+00:00	93.3%	67.1%	96.9%	51.8%	36.2%
2026-10-18T05:45:17+00:00	93.3%	67.1%	96.9%	51.8%	36.2%
2026-10-18T06:30:24+00:00	93.3%	67.1%	96.9%	51.8%	36.2%
2026-10-18T07:15:31+00:00	93.3%	67.1%	96.9%	51.8%	36.2%
2026-10-18T08:00:47+00:00	93.4%	67.1%	96.9%	51.0%	54.5%
2026-10-18T08:47:08+00:00	93.4%	67.1%	96.9%	51.0%	54.5%
2026-10-18T09:32:15+00:00	93.4%	67.1%	96.9%	51.0%	54.5%
2026-10-18T10:17:23+00:00	93.4%	67.1%	96.9%	51.0%	54.5%
2026-10-18T11:02:32+00:00	93.4%	58.1%	96.7%	51.0%	54.5%
2026-10-18T11:48:10+00:00	93.4%	58.1%	96.7%	51.0%	54.5%
2026-10-18T12:33:24+00:00	93.4%	58.1%	96.7%	51.0%	54.5%
2026-10-18T13:18:58+00:00	93.4%	58.1%	96.7%	51.0%	54.5%
2026-10-18T14:04:06+00:00	92.0%	57.9%	96.7%	51.0%	54.5%
2026-10-18T14:55:27+00:00	92.0%	57.9%	96.7%	51.0%	54.5%
2026-10-18T15:41:24+00:00	92.0%	51.3%	96.7%	51.0%	54.5%
2026-10-18T16:26:44+00:00	92.0%	51.3%	96.7%	51.0%	54.5%
2026-10-18T17:12:02+00:00	92.0%	51.3%	96.5%	51.0%	54.5%
2026-10-18T17:57:14+00:00	92.0%	51.3%	96.5%	51.0%	54.5%
2026-10-18T18:42:44+00:00	92.0%	51.3%	96.5%	51.0%	54.5%
2026-10-18T19:27:51+00:00	93.0%	51.3%	96.5%	47.1%	46.6%
2026-10-18T20:13:03+00:00	93.0%	51.3%	96.5%	47.1%	46.6%
2026-10-18T20:58:13+00:00	93.0%	51.3%	96.5%	47.1%	46.6%
2026-10-18T21:43:22+00:00	93.0%	51.3%	96.5%	47.1%	46.6%
2026-10-18T22:28:30+00:00	93.0%	51.3%	96.5%	47.1%	46.6%
2026-10-18T23:13:37+00:00	93.0%	51.3%	96.9%	47.1%	46.6%
2026-10-18T23:58:48+00:00	93.0%	51.3%	96.9%	47.1%	46.6%
2026-10-19T00:44:03+00:00	93.0%	51.3%	96.9%	47.1%	46.6%
2026-10-19T01:29:27+00:00	93.0%	51.3%	96.9%	47.1%	46.6%
2026-10-19T02:14:42+00:00	93.0%	51.3%	96.9%	47.1%	46.6%
2026-10-19T02:59:51+00:00	93.0%	51.3%	96.9%	47.1%	46.6%
2026-10-19T03:45:01+00:00	93.0%	51.3%	96.9%	47.1%	46.6%
2026-10-19T04:30:14+00:00	93.0%	51.3%	96.9%	47.1%	46.6%
2026-10-19T05:16:51+00:00	93.0%	51.3%	96.9%	47.1%	46.6%
2026-10-19T06:02:10+00:00	93.0%	51.3%	96.9%	47.1%	46.6%
2026-10-19T06:47:18+00:00	93.0%	51.3%	96.9%	47.1%	46.6%
2026-10-19T07:32:33+00:00	94.2%	51.3%	96.9%	52.1%	50.0%
2026-10-19T08:19:20+00:00	94.2%	51.3%	96.9%	52.1%	50.0%
2026-10-19T09:04:26+00:00	94.2%	51.3%	96.9%	52.1%	50.0%
2026-10-19T09:49:31+00:00	94.2%	51.3%	96.9%	52.1%	50.0%
2026-10-19T10:34:51+00:00	94.2%	51.3%	96.9%	52.1%	50.0%
2026-10-19T11:20:34+00:00	94.2%	57.3%	97.3%	52.1%	50.0%
2026-10-19T12:06:26+00:00	94.2%	57.3%	97.3%	52.1%	50.0%
2026-10-19T12:51:48+00:00	94.2%	57.3%	97.3%	52.1%	50.0%
2026-10-19T13:36:54+00:00	93.9%	57.3%	97.3%	52.1%	50.0%
2026-10-19T14:27:56+00:00	94.0%	57.3%	97.3%	52.1%	51.1%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	97%	73.1°F	2.9°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	94%	73.6°F	3.9°F	2026-10-19 06:00	Pending
National Blend	75%	69.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-19 06:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	57%	68.1°F	3.2°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	56%	68.0°F	3.1°F	2026-10-19 03:00	Pending
IFS HRES	52%	67.7°F	3.7°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
ICON	51%	67.6°F	3.5°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 68°F · KPHL

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KPHL-20261020-TMAX-GE68
Opened Oct 15 · 04:01 UTC

Original listing: Philadelphia high ≥ 68°F · Tue Oct 20

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗