KPHL / Tue Oct 20 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Philadelphia, PAHigh ≥ 69°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST67%Oct 20 · 04:03 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

93%

92%

45%

39%

39%

Consensus

67%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 65.8¢Risks 65.80u

ICONNO 34.2¢Risks 34.20u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +34.20u · ICON −34.20u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:00	41.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	0.9%	—	—	—	—	4.7%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	23.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	35.4%	—	—	—	—	41.0%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	41.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	53.2%	—	—	—	—	28.8%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	81.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	9.1%	—	—	—	—	27.0%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	67.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	47.9%	—	—	—	—	29.2%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	78.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	86.9%	—	—	—	—	25.7%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	27.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	66.0%	—	—	—	—	28.3%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	12.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	23.6%	—	—	—	—	31.6%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	10.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	11.2%	—	—	—	—	36.4%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	57.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	44.5%	—	—	—	—	45.1%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	40.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	70.6%	—	—	—	—	47.7%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	63.6%	—	0.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	59.3%	—	—	—	—	41.3%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	60.0%	—	24.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	76.7%	—	—	—	—	43.4%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	69.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	37.0%	—	41.9%	—	—	41.3%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	59.5%	—	49.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	60.9%	—	47.4%	—	—	36.6%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	69.1%	—	37.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	62.6%	6.2%	61.3%	—	—	40.6%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	56.2%	—	77.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	66.4%	54.2%	67.0%	9.9%	—	40.3%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	42.9%	—	58.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	47.8%	62.9%	42.0%	24.3%	—	26.6%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	41.8%	—	57.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	69.1%	65.6%	53.0%	11.4%	—	20.5%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	68.1%	—	55.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	33.0%	49.2%	42.1%	30.1%	—	20.1%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	63.6%	3.8%	52.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	30.8%	67.0%	50.8%	30.8%	—	18.9%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	55.1%	46.6%	60.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	16.7%	52.6%	50.9%	40.5%	—	7.0%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	56.3%	52.7%	32.6%	—	—	17.8%
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	72.6%	58.2%	57.3%	58.2%	—	29.7%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	74.7%	51.9%	59.4%	—	—	28.4%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	69.6%	41.3%	56.8%	43.2%	—	33.0%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	70.9%	34.4%	57.0%	—	—	25.7%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	67.0%	21.2%	57.2%	38.8%	0.0%	26.8%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	68.4%	36.5%	34.5%	—	—	24.5%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	66.9%	46.7%	55.5%	45.6%	—	24.7%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	63.3%	35.7%	48.9%	0.1%	—	23.1%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	66.9%	38.5%	55.8%	32.0%	0.0%	21.5%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	68.5%	47.6%	53.6%	37.0%	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	71.3%	53.7%	53.7%	38.9%	42.6%	25.6%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	70.9%	48.7%	56.4%	39.8%	—	22.8%
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	70.5%	52.7%	56.7%	33.1%	39.4%	20.0%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	79.9%	61.0%	59.7%	44.4%	—	27.6%
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	82.8%	72.0%	69.5%	55.8%	66.9%	31.8%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	80.8%	—	72.8%	51.5%	—	24.8%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
AIFS Single	93%	74.2°F	3.9°F	2026-10-19 18:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	92%	72.5°F	2.9°F	2026-10-19 12:00	Pending
National Blend	59%	69.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-19 06:00	Pending
NWS forecast	56%	69.0°F	3.1°F	2026-10-19 14:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	45%	68.1°F	3.2°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	39%	67.5°F	3.7°F	2026-10-19 12:00	Pending
ICON	39%	67.5°F	3.5°F	2026-10-19 12:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 69°F · KPHL

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KPHL-20261020-TMAX-GE69
Opened Oct 13 · 08:02 UTC

Original listing: Philadelphia high ≥ 69°F · Tue Oct 20

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗