KPHL / Tue Oct 20 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Philadelphia, PAHigh ≥ 69°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST67%Oct 20 · 04:03 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

93%

92%

45%

39%

39%

Consensus

67%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 65.8¢Risks 65.80u

ICONNO 34.2¢Risks 34.20u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +34.20u · ICON −34.20u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T04:03:37+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-13T08:02:32+00:00	84.0%	50.0%	87.7%	58.7%	32.1%
2026-10-13T08:49:38+00:00	84.0%	50.0%	87.7%	58.7%	32.1%
2026-10-13T09:34:43+00:00	84.0%	50.0%	87.7%	58.7%	32.1%
2026-10-13T10:19:51+00:00	84.0%	50.0%	87.7%	58.7%	32.1%
2026-10-13T11:05:09+00:00	84.0%	47.7%	88.6%	58.7%	32.1%
2026-10-13T11:50:33+00:00	84.0%	47.7%	88.6%	58.7%	32.1%
2026-10-13T12:35:47+00:00	84.0%	47.7%	88.6%	58.7%	32.1%
2026-10-13T13:20:53+00:00	84.0%	47.7%	88.6%	58.7%	32.1%
2026-10-13T14:05:59+00:00	78.8%	47.7%	88.6%	58.7%	32.2%
2026-10-13T14:56:01+00:00	78.8%	47.7%	88.6%	58.7%	32.2%
2026-10-13T15:41:12+00:00	78.8%	47.7%	88.6%	58.7%	32.2%
2026-10-13T16:27:00+00:00	78.8%	47.7%	88.6%	58.7%	32.2%
2026-10-13T17:12:07+00:00	78.8%	47.7%	88.6%	58.7%	32.2%
2026-10-13T17:57:15+00:00	78.8%	47.7%	88.6%	58.7%	32.2%
2026-10-13T18:42:21+00:00	78.8%	47.7%	88.6%	58.7%	32.2%
2026-10-13T19:27:26+00:00	86.1%	47.7%	88.6%	58.7%	69.6%
2026-10-13T20:12:32+00:00	86.1%	47.7%	88.6%	58.7%	69.6%
2026-10-13T20:57:40+00:00	86.1%	47.7%	88.6%	58.7%	69.6%
2026-10-13T21:42:53+00:00	86.1%	47.7%	88.6%	58.7%	69.6%
2026-10-13T22:28:22+00:00	86.1%	47.7%	88.6%	58.1%	69.6%
2026-10-13T23:13:31+00:00	86.1%	47.7%	92.9%	58.1%	69.6%
2026-10-13T23:58:42+00:00	86.1%	47.7%	92.9%	58.1%	69.6%
2026-10-14T00:43:51+00:00	86.1%	47.7%	92.9%	58.1%	69.6%
2026-10-14T01:29:06+00:00	67.2%	47.7%	92.9%	58.1%	69.6%
2026-10-14T02:14:16+00:00	67.2%	47.7%	92.9%	58.1%	69.6%
2026-10-14T02:59:28+00:00	67.2%	47.7%	92.9%	58.1%	69.6%
2026-10-14T03:45:25+00:00	67.2%	47.7%	92.9%	58.1%	69.6%
2026-10-14T04:30:43+00:00	67.2%	47.7%	92.9%	58.1%	69.6%
2026-10-14T05:15:50+00:00	67.2%	47.7%	92.9%	58.1%	69.6%
2026-10-14T06:00:57+00:00	67.2%	47.7%	92.9%	58.1%	69.6%
2026-10-14T06:46:06+00:00	67.2%	47.7%	92.9%	58.1%	69.6%
2026-10-14T07:31:24+00:00	72.1%	47.7%	92.9%	58.1%	77.8%
2026-10-14T08:16:33+00:00	72.1%	47.7%	92.9%	58.1%	77.8%
2026-10-14T09:01:43+00:00	72.1%	47.7%	92.9%	58.1%	77.8%
2026-10-14T09:46:50+00:00	72.1%	47.7%	92.9%	58.1%	77.8%
2026-10-14T10:32:05+00:00	72.1%	47.7%	92.9%	36.9%	77.8%
2026-10-14T11:20:30+00:00	72.1%	28.7%	77.1%	36.9%	77.8%
2026-10-14T12:06:10+00:00	72.1%	28.7%	77.1%	36.9%	77.8%
2026-10-14T12:51:18+00:00	72.1%	28.7%	77.1%	36.9%	77.8%
2026-10-14T13:36:25+00:00	66.8%	28.7%	77.1%	36.9%	77.8%
2026-10-14T14:26:47+00:00	67.2%	28.7%	76.7%	36.9%	77.8%
2026-10-14T15:11:58+00:00	67.2%	30.5%	76.7%	36.9%	77.8%
2026-10-14T15:57:51+00:00	67.2%	30.5%	76.7%	36.9%	77.8%
2026-10-14T16:43:01+00:00	67.2%	30.5%	76.7%	36.9%	77.8%
2026-10-14T17:28:09+00:00	67.2%	30.5%	63.4%	36.9%	77.8%
2026-10-14T18:13:18+00:00	67.2%	30.5%	63.4%	36.9%	77.8%
2026-10-14T18:58:24+00:00	67.2%	30.5%	63.4%	36.9%	77.8%
2026-10-14T19:43:31+00:00	87.1%	30.5%	63.4%	42.2%	79.0%
2026-10-14T20:28:46+00:00	87.1%	30.5%	63.4%	42.2%	79.0%
2026-10-14T21:13:54+00:00	87.1%	30.5%	63.4%	42.2%	79.0%
2026-10-14T21:59:00+00:00	87.1%	30.5%	63.4%	42.2%	79.0%
2026-10-14T22:44:07+00:00	87.1%	30.5%	63.4%	42.2%	79.0%
2026-10-14T23:29:16+00:00	87.1%	30.5%	68.9%	42.2%	79.0%
2026-10-15T00:14:37+00:00	87.1%	30.5%	68.9%	42.2%	79.0%
2026-10-15T01:01:06+00:00	87.1%	30.5%	68.9%	42.2%	79.0%
2026-10-15T01:46:15+00:00	85.9%	30.5%	68.9%	42.2%	79.0%
2026-10-15T02:31:27+00:00	85.9%	30.5%	68.9%	42.2%	79.0%
2026-10-15T03:16:33+00:00	85.9%	30.5%	68.9%	42.2%	79.0%
2026-10-19T15:13:12+00:00	90.3%	45.1%	94.3%	41.5%	40.0%
2026-10-19T15:59:05+00:00	90.3%	45.1%	94.3%	41.5%	40.0%
2026-10-19T16:44:12+00:00	90.3%	45.1%	94.3%	41.5%	40.0%
2026-10-19T17:29:25+00:00	90.3%	45.1%	92.6%	41.5%	40.0%
2026-10-19T18:14:36+00:00	90.3%	45.1%	92.6%	41.5%	40.0%
2026-10-19T18:59:46+00:00	90.3%	45.1%	92.6%	41.5%	40.0%
2026-10-19T19:45:25+00:00	89.8%	45.1%	92.6%	39.4%	38.9%
2026-10-19T20:30:36+00:00	89.8%	45.1%	92.6%	39.4%	38.9%
2026-10-19T21:15:49+00:00	89.8%	45.1%	92.6%	39.4%	38.9%
2026-10-19T22:00:57+00:00	89.8%	45.1%	92.6%	39.4%	38.9%
2026-10-19T22:46:09+00:00	89.8%	45.1%	92.6%	39.4%	38.9%
2026-10-19T23:31:23+00:00	89.8%	45.1%	91.5%	39.4%	38.9%
2026-10-20T00:16:40+00:00	89.8%	45.1%	91.5%	39.4%	38.9%
2026-10-20T01:02:31+00:00	89.8%	45.1%	91.5%	39.4%	38.9%
2026-10-20T01:47:42+00:00	92.7%	45.1%	91.5%	39.4%	38.9%
2026-10-20T02:32:53+00:00	92.7%	45.1%	91.5%	39.4%	38.9%
2026-10-20T03:18:01+00:00	92.7%	45.1%	91.5%	39.4%	38.9%
2026-10-20T04:03:37+00:00	92.7%	45.1%	91.5%	39.4%	38.9%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
AIFS Single	93%	74.2°F	3.9°F	2026-10-19 18:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	92%	72.5°F	2.9°F	2026-10-19 12:00	Pending
National Blend	59%	69.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-19 06:00	Pending
NWS forecast	56%	69.0°F	3.1°F	2026-10-19 14:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	45%	68.1°F	3.2°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	39%	67.5°F	3.7°F	2026-10-19 12:00	Pending
ICON	39%	67.5°F	3.5°F	2026-10-19 12:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 69°F · KPHL

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KPHL-20261020-TMAX-GE69
Opened Oct 13 · 08:02 UTC

Original listing: Philadelphia high ≥ 69°F · Tue Oct 20

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗