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KPHL / Tue Oct 20 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Philadelphia, PAHigh ≥ 71°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST57%Oct 20 · 10:07 UTC
THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%
AIFS
90%
WN2
76%
EPS
23%
ICON
23%
HRES
21%
Consensus
57%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED
AIFSYES 55.4¢Risks 55.35u
VS
HRESNO 44.6¢Risks 44.65u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +44.65u · HRES −44.65u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

RecordedReconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

0%25%50%75%100%AIFS Single: 82.7% · 2026-10-20T04:51:05+00:00AIFS Single: 82.7% · 2026-10-20T05:36:25+00:00AIFS Single: 82.7% · 2026-10-20T06:21:38+00:00AIFS Single: 82.7% · 2026-10-20T07:06:44+00:00AIFS Single: 89.8% · 2026-10-20T07:51:51+00:00AIFS Single: 89.8% · 2026-10-20T08:37:04+00:00AIFS Single: 89.8% · 2026-10-20T09:22:14+00:00AIFS Single: 89.8% · 2026-10-20T10:07:44+00:00IFS Ensemble: 22.9% · 2026-10-20T04:51:05+00:00IFS Ensemble: 22.9% · 2026-10-20T05:36:25+00:00IFS Ensemble: 22.9% · 2026-10-20T06:21:38+00:00IFS Ensemble: 22.9% · 2026-10-20T07:06:44+00:00IFS Ensemble: 22.9% · 2026-10-20T07:51:51+00:00IFS Ensemble: 22.9% · 2026-10-20T08:37:04+00:00IFS Ensemble: 22.9% · 2026-10-20T09:22:14+00:00IFS Ensemble: 22.9% · 2026-10-20T10:07:44+00:00WeatherNext 2: 75.4% · 2026-10-20T04:51:05+00:00WeatherNext 2: 76.5% · 2026-10-20T05:36:25+00:00WeatherNext 2: 76.5% · 2026-10-20T06:21:38+00:00WeatherNext 2: 76.5% · 2026-10-20T07:06:44+00:00WeatherNext 2: 76.5% · 2026-10-20T07:51:51+00:00WeatherNext 2: 76.5% · 2026-10-20T08:37:04+00:00WeatherNext 2: 76.5% · 2026-10-20T09:22:14+00:00WeatherNext 2: 76.5% · 2026-10-20T10:07:44+00:00IFS HRES: 20.9% · 2026-10-20T04:51:05+00:00IFS HRES: 20.9% · 2026-10-20T05:36:25+00:00IFS HRES: 20.9% · 2026-10-20T06:21:38+00:00IFS HRES: 20.9% · 2026-10-20T07:06:44+00:00IFS HRES: 20.9% · 2026-10-20T07:51:51+00:00IFS HRES: 20.9% · 2026-10-20T08:37:04+00:00IFS HRES: 20.9% · 2026-10-20T09:22:14+00:00IFS HRES: 20.9% · 2026-10-20T10:07:44+00:00ICON: 19.8% · 2026-10-20T04:51:05+00:00ICON: 19.8% · 2026-10-20T05:36:25+00:00ICON: 19.8% · 2026-10-20T06:21:38+00:00ICON: 19.8% · 2026-10-20T07:06:44+00:00ICON: 22.9% · 2026-10-20T07:51:51+00:00ICON: 22.9% · 2026-10-20T08:37:04+00:00ICON: 22.9% · 2026-10-20T09:22:14+00:00ICON: 22.9% · 2026-10-20T10:07:44+00:0010-20 04:5110-20 07:5110-20 10:07
AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON
2026-10-20T10:07:44+00:00 · UTC
View the forecast data
UTCAIFSEPSWN2HRESICON
2026-10-20T04:51:05+00:0082.7%22.9%75.4%20.9%19.8%
2026-10-20T05:36:25+00:0082.7%22.9%76.5%20.9%19.8%
2026-10-20T06:21:38+00:0082.7%22.9%76.5%20.9%19.8%
2026-10-20T07:06:44+00:0082.7%22.9%76.5%20.9%19.8%
2026-10-20T07:51:51+00:0089.8%22.9%76.5%20.9%22.9%
2026-10-20T08:37:04+00:0089.8%22.9%76.5%20.9%22.9%
2026-10-20T09:22:14+00:0089.8%22.9%76.5%20.9%22.9%
2026-10-20T10:07:44+00:0089.8%22.9%76.5%20.9%22.9%
THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODELYESMEANSPREAD σINITIALIZATION UTCBRIER ↓
AIFS Single90%74.4°F3.1°F2026-10-20 00:00Pending
WeatherNext 276%72.6°F2.9°F2026-10-19 18:00Pending
National Blend67%71.0°F1.1°F2026-10-20 00:00Pending
NWS forecast59%71.0°F2.2°F2026-10-20 03:00Pending
IFS Ensemble23%68.1°F3.2°F2026-10-19 00:00Pending
ICON23%67.9°F3.5°F2026-10-20 00:00Pending
IFS HRES21%67.5°F3.7°F2026-10-19 12:00Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 71°F · KPHL

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KPHL-20261020-TMAX-GE71
Opened Oct 20 · 04:51 UTC

Original listing: Philadelphia high ≥ 71°F · Tue Oct 20

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗