KPHL / Tue Oct 20 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Philadelphia, PAHigh ≥ 71°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST57%Oct 20 · 10:07 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

90%

76%

23%

23%

21%

Consensus

57%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 55.4¢Risks 55.35u

HRESNO 44.6¢Risks 44.65u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +44.65u · HRES −44.65u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:00	31.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	0.4%	—	—	—	—	2.6%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	16.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	26.1%	—	—	—	—	31.1%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	31.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	42.6%	—	—	—	—	20.4%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	73.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	5.5%	—	—	—	—	18.9%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	56.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	37.5%	—	—	—	—	20.8%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	69.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	80.3%	—	—	—	—	17.9%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	19.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	55.8%	—	—	—	—	20.1%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	7.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	16.2%	—	—	—	—	22.8%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	6.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	6.9%	—	—	—	—	26.9%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	46.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	34.0%	—	—	—	—	34.5%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	29.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	60.1%	—	—	—	—	36.6%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	52.3%	—	0.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	47.6%	—	—	—	—	30.3%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	48.2%	—	15.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	66.5%	—	—	—	—	31.9%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	58.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	25.9%	—	30.2%	—	—	29.6%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	46.8%	—	36.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	48.0%	—	34.8%	—	—	25.2%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	56.6%	—	25.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	49.3%	3.0%	48.0%	—	—	28.2%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	42.5%	—	66.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	52.8%	40.3%	53.5%	5.1%	—	27.5%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	29.5%	—	44.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	33.7%	48.5%	28.5%	14.4%	—	16.1%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	28.1%	—	42.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	54.6%	50.8%	38.0%	5.6%	—	11.4%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	53.1%	—	40.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	20.1%	33.7%	27.4%	17.9%	—	10.8%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	47.5%	1.4%	36.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	17.8%	50.8%	34.5%	17.8%	—	9.7%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	38.2%	30.3%	43.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	8.0%	35.4%	33.8%	24.8%	—	2.8%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	38.5%	35.1%	18.4%	—	—	8.5%
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	55.5%	40.0%	39.1%	40.0%	—	16.0%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	57.5%	33.5%	40.6%	—	—	14.8%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	51.0%	24.0%	37.6%	25.5%	—	17.7%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	52.0%	18.3%	37.2%	—	—	12.4%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	46.9%	9.4%	36.9%	21.2%	0.0%	12.8%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	47.9%	19.0%	17.6%	—	—	11.1%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	45.6%	26.4%	34.1%	25.5%	—	10.9%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	41.0%	17.5%	27.6%	0.0%	—	9.7%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	44.2%	19.1%	33.1%	14.7%	0.0%	8.5%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	45.2%	25.3%	30.4%	17.5%	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	47.5%	29.8%	29.8%	18.2%	20.8%	10.0%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	46.1%	24.8%	31.4%	18.2%	—	8.2%
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	44.6%	27.3%	30.7%	13.4%	17.3%	6.5%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	55.6%	33.8%	32.5%	20.1%	—	9.8%
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	58.6%	44.2%	41.4%	28.0%	38.6%	11.5%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	54.5%	—	44.0%	23.6%	—	7.5%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
AIFS Single	90%	74.4°F	3.1°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	76%	72.6°F	2.9°F	2026-10-19 18:00	Pending
National Blend	67%	71.0°F	1.1°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	59%	71.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-20 03:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	23%	68.1°F	3.2°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
ICON	23%	67.9°F	3.5°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	21%	67.5°F	3.7°F	2026-10-19 12:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 71°F · KPHL

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KPHL-20261020-TMAX-GE71
Opened Oct 20 · 04:51 UTC

Original listing: Philadelphia high ≥ 71°F · Tue Oct 20

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗