KPHL / Tue Oct 20 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Philadelphia, PAHigh ≥ 76°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST2%Oct 18 · 06:30 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

35%

31%

<1%

<1%

Consensus

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 18.0¢Risks 18.00u

EPSNO 82.0¢Risks 82.00u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +82.00u · EPS −82.00u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:00	12.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	—	0.4%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	4.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	9.6%	—	—	—	—	12.3%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	12.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	19.7%	—	—	—	—	6.8%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	47.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	1.2%	—	—	—	—	6.1%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	31.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	16.2%	—	—	—	—	6.9%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	44.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	57.4%	—	—	—	—	5.6%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	6.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	30.1%	—	—	—	—	6.6%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	1.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	4.9%	—	—	—	—	7.9%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	1.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	1.6%	—	—	—	—	10.0%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	22.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	13.5%	—	—	—	—	13.8%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	10.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	32.4%	—	—	—	—	14.6%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	25.3%	—	0.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	21.4%	—	—	—	—	10.6%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	21.4%	—	4.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	36.9%	—	—	—	—	10.9%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	28.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	7.6%	—	9.6%	—	—	9.3%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	18.9%	—	12.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	19.3%	—	11.3%	—	—	6.9%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	25.3%	—	6.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	19.4%	0.3%	18.4%	—	—	7.7%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	14.6%	—	32.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	20.9%	13.0%	21.4%	0.6%	—	6.9%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	7.5%	—	14.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	9.0%	17.0%	6.9%	2.4%	—	2.8%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	6.5%	—	13.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	20.0%	17.4%	10.3%	0.5%	—	1.5%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	18.4%	—	10.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	3.3%	7.8%	5.5%	2.7%	—	1.2%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	13.9%	0.1%	8.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	2.5%	15.2%	7.4%	2.5%	—	0.9%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	8.5%	5.6%	10.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	0.6%	7.0%	6.5%	3.8%	—	0.1%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	7.8%	6.6%	2.1%	—	—	0.6%
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	15.4%	7.9%	7.6%	7.9%	—	1.6%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	15.9%	5.3%	7.7%	—	—	1.3%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	11.6%	2.7%	6.2%	3.0%	—	1.6%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	11.4%	1.6%	5.7%	—	—	0.8%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	8.6%	0.5%	5.2%	1.8%	0.0%	0.8%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	8.3%	1.4%	1.2%	—	—	0.5%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	7.0%	2.3%	3.8%	2.1%	—	0.5%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	5.1%	0.9%	2.2%	0.0%	—	0.3%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	5.4%	1.0%	2.9%	0.6%	0.0%	0.2%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	5.1%	1.5%	2.2%	0.7%	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	5.2%	1.8%	1.8%	0.7%	0.9%	0.2%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	4.3%	1.1%	1.8%	0.6%	—	0.1%
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	3.5%	1.1%	1.4%	0.3%	0.4%	0.1%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	5.4%	1.5%	1.4%	0.5%	—	0.1%
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	5.5%	2.5%	2.1%	0.8%	1.8%	0.1%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	3.7%	—	2.0%	0.4%	—	0.0%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
AIFS Single	35%	73.9°F	4.3°F	2026-10-17 18:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	31%	73.8°F	3.4°F	2026-10-17 18:00	Pending
IFS HRES	4%	67.7°F	4.5°F	2026-10-17 12:00	Pending
National Blend	3%	70.0°F	2.9°F	2026-10-18 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	1%	68.0°F	3.4°F	2026-10-18 03:00	Pending
ICON	<1%	66.1°F	4.0°F	2026-10-17 12:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	<1%	68.7°F	2.7°F	2026-10-17 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 76°F · KPHL

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KPHL-20261020-TMAX-GE76
Opened Oct 13 · 08:02 UTC

Original listing: Philadelphia runs hot-for-here: 76°F+ · Tue Oct 20

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗