KPHL / Tue Oct 20 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Philadelphia, PAHigh ≥ 76°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST2%Oct 18 · 06:30 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

35%

31%

<1%

<1%

Consensus

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 18.0¢Risks 18.00u

EPSNO 82.0¢Risks 82.00u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +82.00u · EPS −82.00u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-18T06:30:24+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-13T08:02:33+00:00	40.2%	3.6%	44.1%	18.9%	12.1%
2026-10-13T08:49:38+00:00	40.2%	3.6%	44.1%	18.9%	12.1%
2026-10-13T09:34:43+00:00	40.2%	3.6%	44.1%	18.9%	12.1%
2026-10-13T10:19:51+00:00	40.2%	3.6%	44.1%	18.9%	12.1%
2026-10-13T11:05:09+00:00	40.2%	1.7%	42.0%	18.9%	12.1%
2026-10-13T11:50:33+00:00	40.2%	1.7%	42.0%	18.9%	12.1%
2026-10-13T12:35:47+00:00	40.2%	1.7%	42.0%	18.9%	12.1%
2026-10-13T13:20:53+00:00	40.2%	1.7%	42.0%	18.9%	12.1%
2026-10-13T14:05:59+00:00	32.8%	1.7%	42.0%	18.9%	12.1%
2026-10-13T14:56:01+00:00	32.8%	1.7%	42.0%	18.9%	12.1%
2026-10-13T15:41:12+00:00	32.8%	1.7%	42.0%	18.9%	12.1%
2026-10-13T16:27:00+00:00	32.8%	1.7%	42.0%	18.9%	12.1%
2026-10-13T17:12:07+00:00	32.8%	1.7%	42.0%	18.9%	12.1%
2026-10-13T17:57:15+00:00	32.8%	1.7%	42.0%	18.9%	12.1%
2026-10-13T18:42:21+00:00	32.8%	1.7%	42.0%	18.9%	12.1%
2026-10-13T19:27:26+00:00	43.6%	1.7%	42.0%	18.9%	42.4%
2026-10-13T20:12:32+00:00	43.6%	1.7%	42.0%	18.9%	42.4%
2026-10-13T20:57:40+00:00	43.6%	1.7%	42.0%	18.9%	42.4%
2026-10-13T21:42:53+00:00	43.6%	1.7%	42.0%	18.9%	42.4%
2026-10-13T22:28:22+00:00	43.6%	1.7%	42.0%	18.4%	42.4%
2026-10-13T23:13:31+00:00	43.6%	1.7%	52.4%	18.4%	42.4%
2026-10-13T23:58:42+00:00	43.6%	1.7%	52.4%	18.4%	42.4%
2026-10-14T00:43:51+00:00	43.6%	1.7%	52.4%	18.4%	42.4%
2026-10-14T01:29:06+00:00	21.2%	1.7%	52.4%	18.4%	42.4%
2026-10-14T02:14:16+00:00	21.2%	1.7%	52.4%	18.4%	42.4%
2026-10-14T02:59:28+00:00	21.2%	1.7%	52.4%	18.4%	42.4%
2026-10-14T03:45:25+00:00	21.2%	1.7%	52.4%	18.4%	42.4%
2026-10-14T04:30:43+00:00	21.2%	1.7%	52.4%	18.4%	42.4%
2026-10-14T05:15:50+00:00	21.2%	1.7%	52.4%	18.4%	42.4%
2026-10-14T06:00:57+00:00	21.2%	1.7%	52.4%	18.4%	42.4%
2026-10-14T06:46:06+00:00	21.2%	1.7%	52.4%	18.4%	42.4%
2026-10-14T07:31:24+00:00	23.1%	1.7%	52.4%	18.4%	41.0%
2026-10-14T08:16:33+00:00	23.1%	1.7%	52.4%	18.4%	41.0%
2026-10-14T09:01:43+00:00	23.1%	1.7%	52.4%	18.4%	41.0%
2026-10-14T09:46:50+00:00	23.1%	1.7%	52.4%	18.4%	41.0%
2026-10-14T10:32:05+00:00	23.1%	1.7%	52.4%	8.0%	41.0%
2026-10-14T11:20:30+00:00	23.1%	0.7%	21.6%	8.0%	41.0%
2026-10-14T12:06:10+00:00	23.1%	0.7%	21.6%	8.0%	41.0%
2026-10-14T12:51:18+00:00	23.1%	0.7%	21.6%	8.0%	41.0%
2026-10-14T13:36:25+00:00	18.8%	0.7%	21.6%	8.0%	41.0%
2026-10-14T14:26:47+00:00	19.7%	0.7%	22.0%	8.1%	41.0%
2026-10-14T15:11:58+00:00	19.7%	0.8%	22.0%	8.1%	41.0%
2026-10-14T15:57:51+00:00	19.7%	0.8%	22.0%	8.1%	41.0%
2026-10-14T16:43:01+00:00	19.7%	0.8%	22.0%	8.1%	41.0%
2026-10-14T17:28:09+00:00	19.7%	0.8%	12.3%	8.1%	41.0%
2026-10-14T18:13:18+00:00	19.7%	0.8%	12.3%	8.1%	41.0%
2026-10-14T18:58:24+00:00	19.7%	0.8%	12.3%	8.1%	41.0%
2026-10-14T19:43:31+00:00	43.4%	0.8%	12.3%	10.4%	42.7%
2026-10-14T20:28:47+00:00	43.4%	0.8%	12.3%	10.4%	42.7%
2026-10-14T21:13:54+00:00	43.4%	0.8%	12.3%	10.4%	42.7%
2026-10-14T21:59:00+00:00	43.4%	0.8%	12.3%	10.4%	42.7%
2026-10-14T22:44:07+00:00	43.4%	0.8%	12.3%	10.4%	42.7%
2026-10-14T23:29:16+00:00	43.4%	0.8%	15.7%	10.4%	42.7%
2026-10-15T00:14:37+00:00	43.4%	0.8%	15.7%	10.4%	42.7%
2026-10-15T01:01:06+00:00	43.4%	0.8%	15.7%	10.4%	42.7%
2026-10-15T01:46:15+00:00	41.2%	0.8%	15.7%	10.4%	42.7%
2026-10-15T02:31:27+00:00	41.2%	0.8%	15.7%	10.4%	42.7%
2026-10-15T03:16:33+00:00	41.2%	0.8%	15.7%	10.4%	42.7%
2026-10-15T04:01:44+00:00	41.2%	0.8%	15.7%	10.4%	42.7%
2026-10-15T04:47:49+00:00	41.2%	0.8%	15.7%	10.4%	42.7%
2026-10-15T05:33:15+00:00	41.2%	0.8%	34.2%	10.4%	42.7%
2026-10-15T06:18:25+00:00	41.2%	0.8%	34.2%	10.4%	42.7%
2026-10-15T07:03:33+00:00	41.2%	0.8%	34.2%	10.4%	42.7%
2026-10-15T07:48:51+00:00	13.9%	0.8%	34.2%	9.7%	22.4%
2026-10-15T08:35:48+00:00	13.9%	0.8%	34.2%	9.7%	22.4%
2026-10-15T09:21:01+00:00	13.9%	0.8%	34.2%	9.7%	22.4%
2026-10-15T10:06:51+00:00	13.9%	0.8%	34.2%	9.7%	22.4%
2026-10-15T10:52:48+00:00	13.9%	0.8%	34.2%	9.7%	22.4%
2026-10-15T11:39:03+00:00	13.9%	0.8%	23.3%	9.7%	22.4%
2026-10-15T12:24:48+00:00	13.9%	1.9%	23.3%	9.7%	22.4%
2026-10-15T13:10:03+00:00	13.9%	1.9%	23.3%	9.7%	22.4%
2026-10-15T13:55:46+00:00	34.4%	1.9%	23.3%	9.7%	23.1%
2026-10-15T14:48:22+00:00	34.4%	1.9%	23.3%	9.7%	23.1%
2026-10-15T15:33:36+00:00	34.4%	2.0%	23.3%	9.7%	23.1%
2026-10-15T16:19:53+00:00	34.4%	2.0%	23.3%	9.7%	23.1%
2026-10-15T17:05:19+00:00	34.4%	2.0%	37.6%	9.7%	23.1%
2026-10-15T17:50:32+00:00	34.4%	2.0%	37.6%	9.7%	23.1%
2026-10-15T18:35:52+00:00	34.4%	2.0%	37.6%	9.7%	23.1%
2026-10-15T19:21:05+00:00	34.4%	2.0%	37.6%	9.7%	23.1%
2026-10-15T20:06:12+00:00	13.0%	2.0%	37.6%	10.0%	35.7%
2026-10-15T20:51:26+00:00	13.0%	2.0%	37.6%	10.0%	35.7%
2026-10-15T21:36:40+00:00	13.0%	2.0%	37.6%	10.0%	35.7%
2026-10-15T22:21:47+00:00	13.0%	2.0%	37.6%	10.0%	35.7%
2026-10-15T23:06:58+00:00	13.0%	2.0%	25.6%	10.0%	35.7%
2026-10-15T23:52:12+00:00	12.9%	2.0%	25.6%	10.0%	35.7%
2026-10-16T00:37:20+00:00	12.9%	2.0%	25.6%	10.0%	35.7%
2026-10-16T01:22:40+00:00	27.9%	2.0%	25.6%	10.0%	35.7%
2026-10-16T02:07:56+00:00	27.9%	2.0%	25.6%	10.0%	35.7%
2026-10-16T02:53:26+00:00	27.9%	2.0%	25.6%	10.0%	35.7%
2026-10-16T03:38:37+00:00	27.9%	2.0%	25.6%	10.0%	35.7%
2026-10-16T04:23:47+00:00	27.9%	2.0%	25.6%	10.0%	35.7%
2026-10-16T05:10:22+00:00	27.9%	2.0%	19.1%	10.0%	35.7%
2026-10-16T05:55:47+00:00	27.9%	2.0%	19.1%	10.0%	35.7%
2026-10-16T06:41:00+00:00	27.9%	2.0%	19.1%	10.0%	35.7%
2026-10-16T07:26:11+00:00	5.1%	2.0%	19.1%	10.0%	15.2%
2026-10-16T08:11:21+00:00	5.1%	2.0%	19.1%	10.0%	15.2%
2026-10-16T08:56:31+00:00	5.1%	2.0%	19.1%	10.0%	15.2%
2026-10-16T09:41:40+00:00	5.1%	2.0%	19.1%	10.0%	15.2%
2026-10-16T10:26:46+00:00	5.1%	2.0%	19.1%	10.0%	15.2%
2026-10-16T11:12:02+00:00	5.1%	0.6%	16.0%	10.0%	15.2%
2026-10-16T11:57:35+00:00	5.1%	0.6%	16.0%	10.0%	15.2%
2026-10-16T12:42:45+00:00	5.1%	0.6%	16.0%	10.0%	15.2%
2026-10-16T13:27:55+00:00	28.6%	0.6%	16.0%	4.1%	15.2%
2026-10-16T14:19:39+00:00	28.5%	0.6%	16.0%	4.1%	15.2%
2026-10-16T15:05:07+00:00	28.5%	0.5%	16.0%	4.1%	15.2%
2026-10-16T15:50:53+00:00	28.5%	0.5%	16.0%	4.1%	15.2%
2026-10-16T16:36:03+00:00	28.5%	0.5%	16.0%	4.1%	15.2%
2026-10-16T17:21:16+00:00	28.5%	0.5%	41.5%	4.1%	15.2%
2026-10-16T18:06:35+00:00	28.5%	0.5%	41.5%	4.1%	15.2%
2026-10-16T18:51:41+00:00	28.5%	0.5%	41.5%	4.1%	15.2%
2026-10-16T19:36:49+00:00	43.1%	0.5%	41.5%	4.1%	18.3%
2026-10-16T20:22:21+00:00	43.1%	0.5%	41.5%	4.1%	18.3%
2026-10-16T21:07:44+00:00	43.1%	0.5%	41.5%	4.1%	18.3%
2026-10-16T21:52:50+00:00	43.1%	0.5%	41.5%	4.1%	18.3%
2026-10-16T22:37:57+00:00	43.1%	0.5%	41.5%	9.0%	18.3%
2026-10-16T23:23:15+00:00	43.1%	0.5%	48.9%	9.0%	18.3%
2026-10-17T00:08:46+00:00	43.1%	0.5%	48.9%	9.0%	18.3%
2026-10-17T00:54:54+00:00	43.1%	0.5%	48.9%	9.0%	18.3%
2026-10-17T01:40:03+00:00	44.8%	0.5%	48.9%	9.0%	18.3%
2026-10-17T02:25:16+00:00	44.8%	0.5%	48.9%	9.0%	18.3%
2026-10-17T03:10:26+00:00	44.8%	0.5%	48.9%	9.0%	18.3%
2026-10-17T03:55:35+00:00	44.8%	0.5%	48.9%	9.0%	18.3%
2026-10-17T04:40:52+00:00	44.8%	0.5%	48.9%	9.0%	18.3%
2026-10-17T05:27:59+00:00	44.8%	0.5%	48.9%	9.0%	18.3%
2026-10-17T06:13:33+00:00	44.8%	0.5%	51.1%	9.0%	18.3%
2026-10-17T06:58:42+00:00	44.8%	0.5%	51.1%	9.0%	18.3%
2026-10-17T07:43:56+00:00	38.1%	0.5%	51.1%	4.7%	3.5%
2026-10-17T08:30:36+00:00	38.1%	0.5%	51.1%	4.7%	3.5%
2026-10-17T09:16:22+00:00	38.1%	0.5%	51.1%	4.7%	3.5%
2026-10-17T10:01:47+00:00	38.1%	0.5%	51.1%	4.7%	3.5%
2026-10-17T10:46:52+00:00	38.1%	0.5%	51.1%	4.7%	3.5%
2026-10-17T11:31:57+00:00	38.1%	0.5%	37.2%	4.7%	3.5%
2026-10-17T12:17:25+00:00	38.1%	0.5%	37.2%	4.7%	3.5%
2026-10-17T13:02:31+00:00	38.1%	0.5%	37.2%	4.7%	3.5%
2026-10-17T13:47:45+00:00	39.0%	0.5%	37.2%	4.7%	3.5%
2026-10-17T14:39:14+00:00	39.0%	0.7%	37.2%	4.7%	3.5%
2026-10-17T15:24:25+00:00	39.0%	0.6%	37.2%	4.7%	3.5%
2026-10-17T16:10:29+00:00	39.0%	0.6%	37.2%	4.7%	3.5%
2026-10-17T16:55:37+00:00	39.0%	0.6%	33.9%	4.7%	3.5%
2026-10-17T17:40:45+00:00	39.0%	0.6%	33.9%	4.7%	3.5%
2026-10-17T18:25:54+00:00	39.0%	0.6%	33.9%	4.7%	3.5%
2026-10-17T19:11:00+00:00	39.0%	0.6%	33.9%	4.7%	3.5%
2026-10-17T19:56:08+00:00	34.6%	0.6%	33.9%	4.0%	0.9%
2026-10-17T20:41:25+00:00	34.6%	0.6%	33.9%	4.0%	0.9%
2026-10-17T21:26:35+00:00	34.6%	0.6%	33.9%	4.0%	0.9%
2026-10-17T22:11:50+00:00	34.6%	0.6%	33.9%	4.0%	0.9%
2026-10-17T22:56:58+00:00	34.6%	0.6%	23.8%	4.0%	0.9%
2026-10-17T23:42:09+00:00	34.6%	0.6%	23.8%	4.0%	0.9%
2026-10-18T00:27:21+00:00	34.6%	0.6%	23.8%	4.0%	0.9%
2026-10-18T01:12:37+00:00	34.6%	0.6%	23.8%	4.0%	0.9%
2026-10-18T01:58:00+00:00	35.4%	0.6%	23.8%	4.0%	0.9%
2026-10-18T02:43:18+00:00	35.4%	0.6%	23.8%	4.0%	0.9%
2026-10-18T03:28:25+00:00	35.4%	0.6%	23.8%	4.0%	0.9%
2026-10-18T04:13:38+00:00	35.4%	0.6%	23.8%	4.0%	0.9%
2026-10-18T05:00:10+00:00	35.4%	0.6%	30.7%	4.0%	0.9%
2026-10-18T05:45:17+00:00	35.4%	0.6%	30.7%	4.0%	0.9%
2026-10-18T06:30:24+00:00	35.4%	0.6%	30.7%	4.0%	0.9%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
AIFS Single	35%	73.9°F	4.3°F	2026-10-17 18:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	31%	73.8°F	3.4°F	2026-10-17 18:00	Pending
IFS HRES	4%	67.7°F	4.5°F	2026-10-17 12:00	Pending
National Blend	3%	70.0°F	2.9°F	2026-10-18 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	1%	68.0°F	3.4°F	2026-10-18 03:00	Pending
ICON	<1%	66.1°F	4.0°F	2026-10-17 12:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	<1%	68.7°F	2.7°F	2026-10-17 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 76°F · KPHL

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KPHL-20261020-TMAX-GE76
Opened Oct 13 · 08:02 UTC

Original listing: Philadelphia runs hot-for-here: 76°F+ · Tue Oct 20

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗