KPHL / Wed Oct 21 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Philadelphia, PAHigh ≥ 68°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST41%Oct 16 · 14:19 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

71%

64%

40%

29%

22%

Consensus

41%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 46.6¢Risks 46.60u

EPSNO 53.4¢Risks 53.40u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +53.40u · EPS −53.40u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	1.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	5.3%	—	—	—	—	5.2%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	46.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	5.9%	—	—	—	—	35.4%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	0.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	40.5%	—	—	—	—	34.5%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	36.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	73.9%	—	—	—	—	32.0%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	47.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	34.0%	—	—	—	—	32.0%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	36.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	43.1%	—	—	—	—	39.0%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	29.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	27.4%	—	—	—	—	46.3%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	65.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	68.0%	—	—	—	—	53.7%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	52.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	50.5%	—	—	—	—	58.0%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	36.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	50.0%	—	—	—	—	52.8%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	47.2%	—	29.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	46.6%	—	—	—	—	51.7%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	15.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	44.1%	—	17.7%	—	—	43.0%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	75.4%	—	65.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	81.5%	—	—	—	—	36.9%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	85.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	76.6%	—	27.0%	—	—	43.1%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	76.0%	—	62.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	82.4%	—	78.8%	—	—	51.3%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	67.3%	—	79.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	73.5%	21.8%	72.9%	—	—	38.7%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	69.8%	—	77.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	39.6%	47.9%	53.5%	15.3%	—	24.6%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	40.1%	—	62.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	37.1%	32.3%	35.0%	26.6%	—	30.4%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	63.9%	—	53.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	9.0%	45.4%	36.5%	59.1%	—	30.9%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	13.7%	—	17.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	6.9%	46.0%	35.9%	48.4%	—	11.9%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	13.0%	9.2%	9.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	28.6%	30.0%	11.6%	29.3%	—	12.9%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	26.0%	23.3%	19.0%	—	—	0.3%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	10.9%	7.7%	16.1%	16.1%	—	8.0%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	19.0%	12.5%	22.2%	—	—	5.2%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	7.3%	3.6%	17.8%	7.6%	—	4.3%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	9.2%	10.4%	16.5%	—	—	3.0%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	3.4%	15.3%	15.9%	15.3%	—	3.4%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	5.7%	4.2%	19.7%	—	—	4.7%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	3.4%	10.8%	17.0%	6.7%	—	2.5%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	5.5%	15.6%	11.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	16.9%	25.5%	10.4%	14.3%	—	3.1%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	11.2%	7.1%	10.2%	0.1%	—	1.8%
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	12.7%	16.0%	10.5%	1.3%	0.5%	1.8%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	16.0%	17.5%	11.9%	1.0%	—	2.5%
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	18.2%	24.6%	11.2%	8.0%	14.4%	4.3%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	20.9%	—	9.8%	8.7%	—	3.7%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	71%	69.8°F	4.1°F	2026-10-16 00:00	Pending
ICON	64%	69.7°F	6.0°F	2026-10-16 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	54%	68.0°F	5.2°F	2026-10-16 02:00	Pending
AIFS Single	40%	66.2°F	5.0°F	2026-10-16 06:00	Pending
National Blend	33%	66.0°F	3.3°F	2026-10-16 06:00	Pending
IFS HRES	29%	64.3°F	5.8°F	2026-10-16 00:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	22%	64.8°F	3.5°F	2026-10-16 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 68°F · KPHL

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KPHL-20261021-TMAX-GE68
Opened Oct 15 · 04:01 UTC

Original listing: Philadelphia high ≥ 68°F · Wed Oct 21

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗