KPHL / Wed Oct 21 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Philadelphia, PAHigh ≥ 68°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST41%Oct 16 · 14:19 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

71%

64%

40%

29%

22%

Consensus

41%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 46.6¢Risks 46.60u

EPSNO 53.4¢Risks 53.40u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +53.40u · EPS −53.40u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-16T14:19:39+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-15T04:01:44+00:00	67.2%	57.7%	75.8%	24.4%	66.7%
2026-10-15T04:47:49+00:00	67.2%	57.7%	75.8%	24.4%	66.7%
2026-10-15T05:33:15+00:00	67.2%	57.7%	77.6%	24.4%	66.7%
2026-10-15T06:18:25+00:00	67.2%	57.7%	77.6%	24.4%	66.7%
2026-10-15T07:03:33+00:00	67.2%	57.7%	77.6%	24.4%	66.7%
2026-10-15T07:48:51+00:00	65.8%	57.7%	77.6%	44.6%	56.2%
2026-10-15T08:35:48+00:00	65.8%	57.7%	77.6%	44.6%	56.2%
2026-10-15T09:21:01+00:00	65.8%	57.7%	77.6%	44.6%	56.2%
2026-10-15T10:06:51+00:00	65.8%	57.7%	77.6%	44.6%	56.2%
2026-10-15T10:52:48+00:00	65.8%	57.7%	77.6%	44.6%	56.2%
2026-10-15T11:39:03+00:00	65.8%	57.7%	75.3%	44.6%	56.2%
2026-10-15T12:24:48+00:00	65.8%	44.8%	75.3%	44.6%	56.2%
2026-10-15T13:10:03+00:00	65.8%	44.8%	75.3%	44.6%	56.2%
2026-10-15T13:55:46+00:00	85.1%	44.8%	75.3%	44.6%	56.2%
2026-10-15T14:48:22+00:00	85.1%	44.8%	75.3%	44.6%	56.2%
2026-10-16T04:23:47+00:00	40.5%	45.7%	78.6%	43.4%	66.3%
2026-10-16T05:10:22+00:00	40.5%	45.7%	71.8%	43.4%	66.3%
2026-10-16T05:55:47+00:00	40.5%	45.7%	71.8%	43.4%	66.3%
2026-10-16T06:41:00+00:00	40.5%	45.7%	71.8%	43.4%	66.3%
2026-10-16T07:26:11+00:00	26.6%	45.7%	71.8%	43.4%	64.3%
2026-10-16T08:11:21+00:00	26.6%	45.7%	71.8%	43.4%	64.3%
2026-10-16T08:56:31+00:00	26.6%	45.7%	71.8%	43.4%	64.3%
2026-10-16T09:41:40+00:00	26.6%	45.7%	71.8%	43.4%	64.3%
2026-10-16T10:26:46+00:00	26.6%	45.7%	71.8%	43.4%	64.3%
2026-10-16T11:12:02+00:00	26.6%	22.0%	71.2%	43.4%	64.3%
2026-10-16T11:57:35+00:00	26.6%	22.0%	71.2%	43.4%	64.3%
2026-10-16T12:42:45+00:00	26.6%	22.0%	71.2%	43.4%	64.3%
2026-10-16T13:27:55+00:00	39.7%	22.0%	71.2%	29.0%	64.3%
2026-10-16T14:19:39+00:00	39.7%	22.0%	71.2%	29.0%	64.3%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	71%	69.8°F	4.1°F	2026-10-16 00:00	Pending
ICON	64%	69.7°F	6.0°F	2026-10-16 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	54%	68.0°F	5.2°F	2026-10-16 02:00	Pending
AIFS Single	40%	66.2°F	5.0°F	2026-10-16 06:00	Pending
National Blend	33%	66.0°F	3.3°F	2026-10-16 06:00	Pending
IFS HRES	29%	64.3°F	5.8°F	2026-10-16 00:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	22%	64.8°F	3.5°F	2026-10-16 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 68°F · KPHL

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KPHL-20261021-TMAX-GE68
Opened Oct 15 · 04:01 UTC

Original listing: Philadelphia high ≥ 68°F · Wed Oct 21

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗