KPHL / Thu Oct 22 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Philadelphia, PAHigh ≥ 68°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST90%Oct 20 · 15:31 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

93%

89%

50%

48%

45%

Consensus

90%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 69.2¢Risks 69.15u

HRESNO 30.9¢Risks 30.85u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +30.85u · HRES −30.85u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	0.4%	—	—	—	—	5.6%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	31.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	34.9%	—	—	—	—	28.3%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	67.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	44.7%	—	—	—	—	36.4%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	48.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	65.5%	—	—	—	—	36.4%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	42.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	53.2%	—	—	—	—	47.9%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	67.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	76.8%	—	—	—	—	46.3%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	62.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	26.5%	—	—	—	—	56.9%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	19.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	25.7%	—	—	—	—	55.8%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	27.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	28.7%	—	—	—	—	51.6%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	9.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	30.0%	—	—	—	—	49.5%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	62.6%	—	34.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	60.7%	—	—	—	—	39.3%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	84.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	75.1%	—	—	—	—	37.9%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	63.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	74.3%	—	—	—	—	46.4%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	80.3%	—	75.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	82.8%	—	73.6%	—	—	42.5%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	79.3%	—	69.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	18.0%	—	60.9%	—	—	24.1%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	28.6%	—	56.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	23.8%	9.9%	28.2%	—	—	26.0%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	45.2%	—	47.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	5.8%	45.8%	29.8%	36.2%	—	18.9%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	6.3%	—	7.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	13.6%	67.0%	4.2%	21.5%	—	7.9%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	2.1%	—	1.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	0.8%	8.7%	2.9%	35.8%	—	9.3%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	0.9%	—	13.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	2.1%	19.5%	33.7%	40.5%	—	11.5%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	60.5%	6.5%	37.2%	—	—	8.8%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	26.5%	10.4%	55.0%	31.5%	—	16.8%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	65.0%	33.4%	44.0%	—	—	20.8%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	54.4%	50.9%	53.5%	23.4%	—	22.8%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	58.0%	37.6%	55.4%	—	—	23.5%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	52.8%	52.8%	60.0%	20.9%	—	23.7%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	63.0%	46.2%	50.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	63.4%	56.8%	55.8%	26.3%	—	26.3%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	64.7%	56.0%	41.1%	—	—	0.1%
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	65.1%	44.9%	56.1%	10.8%	—	24.3%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	66.5%	55.3%	48.9%	—	—	27.1%
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	67.9%	50.0%	56.5%	20.6%	30.1%	30.1%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	69.5%	—	60.0%	0.0%	—	26.7%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
National Blend	99%	70.0°F	1.1°F	2026-10-20 06:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	93%	72.1°F	3.1°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	89%	72.5°F	4.0°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	56%	68.0°F	3.4°F	2026-10-20 14:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	50%	67.5°F	3.2°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
ICON	48%	67.3°F	3.6°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	45%	67.0°F	4.1°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 68°F · KPHL

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KPHL-20261022-TMAX-GE68
Opened Oct 19 · 04:30 UTC

Original listing: Philadelphia high ≥ 68°F · Thu Oct 22

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗