KPHL / Fri Oct 23 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Philadelphia, PAHigh ≥ 66°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST38%Oct 18 · 14:04 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

60%

50%

37%

33%

Consensus

38%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 32.2¢Risks 32.25u

HRESNO 67.8¢Risks 67.75u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +67.75u · HRES −67.75u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	14.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	9.8%	—	—	—	—	7.9%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	46.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	88.0%	—	—	—	—	42.1%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	72.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	83.8%	—	—	—	—	53.7%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	72.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	42.6%	—	—	—	—	39.0%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	83.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	66.5%	—	—	—	—	64.5%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	45.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	54.8%	—	—	—	—	64.5%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	69.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	89.5%	—	—	—	—	64.1%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	54.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	48.4%	—	—	—	—	69.4%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	82.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	87.5%	—	—	—	—	55.9%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	91.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	84.3%	—	—	—	—	57.7%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	88.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	92.7%	—	—	—	—	60.1%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	68.9%	—	40.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	70.2%	—	16.2%	—	—	56.4%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	79.0%	—	51.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	67.6%	—	—	—	—	39.8%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	90.0%	—	69.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	88.4%	—	12.2%	—	—	41.9%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	91.8%	—	41.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	66.4%	—	7.5%	—	—	41.0%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	52.0%	—	49.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	74.0%	28.8%	34.2%	—	—	27.1%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	17.5%	—	55.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	3.0%	9.9%	74.8%	31.7%	—	34.9%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	1.6%	—	57.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	2.5%	19.4%	33.7%	42.0%	—	17.0%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	23.2%	—	32.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	20.0%	9.0%	44.7%	14.2%	—	13.4%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	13.7%	—	47.7%	—	—	7.4%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	23.0%	14.0%	42.1%	30.1%	—	7.5%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	13.0%	9.5%	17.3%	—	—	5.5%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	17.3%	12.9%	40.1%	16.2%	—	4.5%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	17.8%	11.1%	29.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	14.1%	11.3%	28.4%	10.1%	—	2.3%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	9.6%	11.2%	28.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	8.6%	8.6%	17.2%	1.4%	—	1.0%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	9.2%	8.1%	17.7%	—	—	1.1%
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	9.4%	11.6%	14.7%	2.9%	10.2%	1.2%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	8.4%	—	16.4%	—	—	1.1%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	60%	66.5°F	4.1°F	2026-10-18 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	54%	66.0°F	5.2°F	2026-10-18 03:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	50%	65.5°F	2.7°F	2026-10-18 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	37%	63.9°F	5.0°F	2026-10-18 06:00	Pending
National Blend	37%	64.0°F	4.4°F	2026-10-18 06:00	Pending
ICON	33%	62.8°F	6.1°F	2026-10-18 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	5%	55.9°F	5.8°F	2026-10-18 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 66°F · KPHL

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KPHL-20261023-TMAX-GE66
Opened Oct 16 · 13:27 UTC

Original listing: Philadelphia high ≥ 66°F · Fri Oct 23

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗