KPHL / Fri Oct 23 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Philadelphia, PAHigh ≥ 66°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST38%Oct 18 · 14:04 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

60%

50%

37%

33%

Consensus

38%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 32.2¢Risks 32.25u

HRESNO 67.8¢Risks 67.75u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +67.75u · HRES −67.75u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-18T14:04:06+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-16T13:27:55+00:00	42.4%	40.3%	93.5%	55.0%	55.2%
2026-10-16T14:19:39+00:00	42.4%	40.3%	93.4%	54.9%	55.2%
2026-10-16T15:05:08+00:00	42.4%	39.5%	93.4%	54.9%	55.2%
2026-10-16T15:50:53+00:00	42.4%	39.5%	93.4%	54.9%	55.2%
2026-10-16T16:36:03+00:00	42.4%	39.5%	93.4%	54.9%	55.2%
2026-10-16T17:21:16+00:00	42.4%	39.5%	92.4%	54.9%	55.2%
2026-10-16T18:06:35+00:00	42.4%	39.5%	92.4%	54.9%	55.2%
2026-10-16T18:51:41+00:00	42.4%	39.5%	92.4%	54.9%	55.2%
2026-10-16T19:36:49+00:00	13.7%	39.5%	92.4%	54.9%	39.3%
2026-10-16T20:22:21+00:00	13.7%	39.5%	92.4%	54.9%	39.3%
2026-10-16T21:07:44+00:00	13.7%	39.5%	92.4%	54.9%	39.3%
2026-10-16T21:52:50+00:00	13.7%	39.5%	92.4%	54.9%	39.3%
2026-10-16T22:37:57+00:00	13.7%	39.5%	92.4%	27.3%	39.3%
2026-10-16T23:23:15+00:00	13.7%	39.5%	86.8%	27.3%	39.3%
2026-10-17T00:08:46+00:00	13.7%	39.5%	86.8%	27.3%	39.3%
2026-10-17T00:54:54+00:00	13.7%	39.5%	86.8%	27.3%	39.3%
2026-10-17T01:40:03+00:00	9.6%	39.5%	86.8%	27.3%	39.3%
2026-10-17T02:25:16+00:00	9.6%	39.5%	86.8%	27.3%	39.3%
2026-10-17T03:10:26+00:00	9.6%	39.5%	86.8%	27.3%	39.3%
2026-10-17T03:55:35+00:00	9.6%	39.5%	86.8%	27.3%	39.3%
2026-10-17T04:40:52+00:00	9.6%	39.5%	86.8%	27.3%	39.3%
2026-10-17T05:27:59+00:00	9.6%	39.5%	86.8%	27.3%	39.3%
2026-10-17T06:13:33+00:00	9.6%	39.5%	84.1%	27.3%	39.3%
2026-10-17T06:58:42+00:00	9.6%	39.5%	84.1%	27.3%	39.3%
2026-10-17T07:43:56+00:00	12.2%	39.5%	84.1%	23.8%	44.4%
2026-10-17T08:30:36+00:00	12.2%	39.5%	84.1%	23.8%	44.4%
2026-10-17T09:16:22+00:00	12.2%	39.5%	84.1%	23.8%	44.4%
2026-10-17T10:01:47+00:00	12.2%	39.5%	84.1%	23.8%	44.4%
2026-10-17T10:46:52+00:00	12.2%	39.5%	84.1%	23.8%	44.4%
2026-10-17T11:31:57+00:00	12.2%	38.9%	79.8%	23.8%	44.4%
2026-10-17T12:17:25+00:00	12.2%	38.9%	79.8%	23.8%	44.4%
2026-10-17T13:02:31+00:00	12.2%	38.9%	79.8%	23.8%	44.4%
2026-10-17T13:47:45+00:00	50.7%	38.9%	79.8%	24.1%	44.4%
2026-10-17T14:39:14+00:00	50.7%	39.0%	79.8%	23.8%	44.4%
2026-10-17T15:24:25+00:00	50.7%	39.9%	79.8%	23.8%	44.4%
2026-10-17T16:10:29+00:00	50.7%	39.9%	79.8%	23.8%	44.4%
2026-10-17T16:55:37+00:00	50.7%	39.9%	64.2%	23.8%	44.4%
2026-10-17T17:40:45+00:00	50.7%	39.9%	64.2%	23.8%	44.4%
2026-10-17T18:25:54+00:00	50.7%	39.9%	64.2%	23.8%	44.4%
2026-10-17T19:11:01+00:00	50.7%	39.9%	64.2%	23.8%	44.4%
2026-10-17T19:56:08+00:00	47.8%	39.9%	64.2%	16.2%	32.2%
2026-10-17T20:41:25+00:00	47.8%	39.9%	64.2%	16.2%	32.2%
2026-10-17T21:26:35+00:00	47.8%	39.9%	64.2%	16.2%	32.2%
2026-10-17T22:11:50+00:00	47.8%	39.9%	64.2%	16.2%	32.2%
2026-10-17T22:56:58+00:00	47.8%	39.9%	55.9%	16.2%	32.2%
2026-10-17T23:42:09+00:00	47.8%	39.9%	55.9%	16.2%	32.2%
2026-10-18T00:27:21+00:00	47.8%	39.9%	55.9%	16.2%	32.2%
2026-10-18T01:12:37+00:00	47.8%	39.9%	55.9%	16.2%	32.2%
2026-10-18T01:58:00+00:00	38.4%	39.9%	55.9%	16.2%	32.2%
2026-10-18T02:43:18+00:00	38.4%	39.9%	55.9%	16.2%	32.2%
2026-10-18T03:28:25+00:00	38.4%	39.9%	55.9%	16.2%	32.2%
2026-10-18T04:13:39+00:00	38.4%	39.9%	55.9%	16.2%	32.2%
2026-10-18T05:00:10+00:00	38.4%	39.9%	60.1%	16.2%	32.2%
2026-10-18T05:45:17+00:00	38.4%	39.9%	60.1%	16.2%	32.2%
2026-10-18T06:30:24+00:00	38.4%	39.9%	60.1%	16.2%	32.2%
2026-10-18T07:15:31+00:00	38.4%	39.9%	60.1%	16.2%	32.2%
2026-10-18T08:00:47+00:00	51.6%	39.9%	60.1%	4.9%	33.0%
2026-10-18T08:47:08+00:00	51.6%	39.9%	60.1%	4.9%	33.0%
2026-10-18T09:32:15+00:00	51.6%	39.9%	60.1%	4.9%	33.0%
2026-10-18T10:17:24+00:00	51.6%	39.9%	60.1%	4.9%	33.0%
2026-10-18T11:02:32+00:00	51.6%	50.0%	59.6%	4.9%	33.0%
2026-10-18T11:48:10+00:00	51.6%	50.0%	59.6%	4.9%	33.0%
2026-10-18T12:33:24+00:00	51.6%	50.0%	59.6%	4.9%	33.0%
2026-10-18T13:18:58+00:00	51.6%	50.0%	59.6%	4.9%	33.0%
2026-10-18T14:04:06+00:00	37.3%	50.0%	59.6%	4.9%	33.0%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	60%	66.5°F	4.1°F	2026-10-18 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	54%	66.0°F	5.2°F	2026-10-18 03:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	50%	65.5°F	2.7°F	2026-10-18 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	37%	63.9°F	5.0°F	2026-10-18 06:00	Pending
National Blend	37%	64.0°F	4.4°F	2026-10-18 06:00	Pending
ICON	33%	62.8°F	6.1°F	2026-10-18 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	5%	55.9°F	5.8°F	2026-10-18 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 66°F · KPHL

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KPHL-20261023-TMAX-GE66
Opened Oct 16 · 13:27 UTC

Original listing: Philadelphia high ≥ 66°F · Fri Oct 23

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗