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KPHL / Fri Oct 23 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Philadelphia, PAHigh ≥ 75°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST2%Oct 17 · 22:11 UTC
THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%
WN2
6%
AIFS
4%
ICON
4%
HRES
<1%
EPS
<1%
Consensus
2%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED
WN2YES 3.2¢Risks 0.80u
VS
EPSNO 96.8¢Risks 24.20u

25 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +24.20u · EPS −24.20u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

RecordedReconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

0%25%50%75%100%AIFS Single: 1.2% · 2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.6% · 2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 10.0% · 2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 48.9% · 2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 27.4% · 2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 41.5% · 2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 27.4% · 2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 8.3% · 2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 41.0% · 2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 22.0% · 2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 9.6% · 2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 14.0% · 2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 24.4% · 2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 52.1% · 2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 14.0% · 2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 10.8% · 2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 39.5% · 2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 47.9% · 2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 56.5% · 2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 40.7% · 2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 47.2% · 2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 56.8% · 2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 20.9% · 2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 21.4% · 2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 29.5% · 2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 18.1% · 2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 45.7% · 2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 41.3% · 2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 48.1% · 2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 14.8% · 2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 7.4% · 2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 18.9% · 2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.6% · 2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.0% · 2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.0% · 2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.0% · 2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.8% · 2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.5% · 2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.2% · 2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.5% · 2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.1% · 2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.2% · 2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.2% · 2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.1% · 2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.0% · 2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.0% · 2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.0% · 2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.0% · 2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.0% · 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00ICON: 1.8% · 2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.2% · 2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.6% · 2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.1% · 2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.2% · 2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.1% · 2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.1% · 2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.1% · 2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.1% · 2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.1% · 2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.0% · 2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.0% · 2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.0% · 2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 6.1% · 2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 1.1% · 2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 9.4% · 2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 18.5% · 2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.5% · 2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 4.8% · 2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.2% · 2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00GFS: 6.5% · 2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 2.7% · 2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 7.8% · 2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 18.0% · 2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00GFS: 7.8% · 2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 1.9% · 2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 1.6% · 2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 3.2% · 2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00GFS: 3.5% · 2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 2.3% · 2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.3% · 2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 1.6% · 2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.7% · 2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.5% · 2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.5% · 2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.1% · 2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.1% · 2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.1% · 2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.1% · 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00UKMET: 2.0% · 2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00UKMET: 3.2% · 2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.3% · 2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00UKMET: 1.0% · 2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.2% · 2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.1% · 2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.0% · 2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.0% · 2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00GEM: 0.0% · 2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.4% · 2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 8.1% · 2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 13.4% · 2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 6.9% · 2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 20.4% · 2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 20.4% · 2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 20.1% · 2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 24.4% · 2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 14.5% · 2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 14.7% · 2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 15.3% · 2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 12.3% · 2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 5.2% · 2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 5.2% · 2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 4.5% · 2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 1.6% · 2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 2.4% · 2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.5% · 2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.2% · 2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.1% · 2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.1% · 2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.0% · 2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.0% · 2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.0% · 2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.0% · 2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.0% · 2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.0% · 2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.0% · 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:0010-08 06:0010-14 06:0010-20 06:00
AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC
View the forecast data
UTCAIFSICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS*
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:001.2%—————
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:000.6%————0.4%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:0010.0%—————
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:0048.9%————8.1%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:0027.4%—————
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:0041.5%————13.4%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:0027.4%—————
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:008.3%————6.9%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:0041.0%—————
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:0022.0%————20.4%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:009.6%—————
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:0014.0%————20.4%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:0024.4%—————
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:0052.1%————20.1%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:0014.0%—————
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:0010.8%————24.4%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:0039.5%—————
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:0047.9%————14.5%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:0056.5%—————
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:0040.7%————14.7%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:0047.2%—————
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:0056.8%————15.3%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:0020.9%—6.1%———
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:0021.4%—1.1%——12.3%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:0029.5%—9.4%———
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:0018.1%————5.2%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:0045.7%—18.5%———
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:0041.3%—0.5%——5.2%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:0048.1%—4.8%———
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:0014.8%—0.2%——4.5%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:007.4%—6.5%———
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:0018.9%1.8%2.7%——1.6%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:000.6%—7.8%———
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:000.0%0.2%18.0%2.0%—2.4%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:000.0%—7.8%———
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:000.0%0.6%1.9%3.2%—0.5%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:000.8%—1.6%———
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:000.5%0.1%3.2%0.3%—0.2%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:000.2%—3.5%——0.1%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:000.5%0.2%2.3%1.0%—0.1%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:000.1%0.1%0.3%——0.0%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:000.2%0.1%1.6%0.2%—0.0%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:000.2%0.1%0.7%———
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:000.1%0.1%0.5%0.1%—0.0%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:000.0%0.1%0.5%———
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:000.0%0.0%0.1%0.0%—0.0%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:000.0%0.0%0.1%——0.0%
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:000.0%0.0%0.1%0.0%0.0%0.0%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:000.0%—0.1%——0.0%
THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODELYESMEANSPREAD σINITIALIZATION UTCBRIER ↓
NWS forecast7%66.0°F5.9°F2026-10-17 14:00Pending
WeatherNext 26%67.2°F4.7°F2026-10-17 06:00Pending
National Blend5%67.0°F4.5°F2026-10-17 06:00Pending
AIFS Single4%65.2°F5.4°F2026-10-17 12:00Pending
ICON4%62.2°F7.2°F2026-10-17 12:00Pending
IFS HRES<1%59.0°F6.6°F2026-10-17 12:00Pending
IFS Ensemble<1%64.5°F3.9°F2026-10-17 00:00Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 75°F · KPHL

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KPHL-20261023-TMAX-GE75
Opened Oct 16 · 13:27 UTC

Original listing: Philadelphia runs hot-for-here: 75°F+ · Fri Oct 23

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗