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KPHL / Fri Oct 23 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Philadelphia, PAHigh ≥ 75°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST2%Oct 17 · 22:11 UTC
THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%
WN2
6%
AIFS
4%
ICON
4%
HRES
<1%
EPS
<1%
Consensus
2%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED
WN2YES 3.2¢Risks 0.80u
VS
EPSNO 96.8¢Risks 24.20u

25 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +24.20u · EPS −24.20u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

RecordedReconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

0%25%50%75%100%AIFS Single: 3.8% · 2026-10-16T13:27:56+00:00AIFS Single: 3.9% · 2026-10-16T14:19:39+00:00AIFS Single: 3.9% · 2026-10-16T15:05:08+00:00AIFS Single: 3.9% · 2026-10-16T15:50:53+00:00AIFS Single: 3.9% · 2026-10-16T16:36:03+00:00AIFS Single: 3.9% · 2026-10-16T17:21:16+00:00AIFS Single: 3.9% · 2026-10-16T18:06:35+00:00AIFS Single: 3.9% · 2026-10-16T18:51:41+00:00AIFS Single: 0.4% · 2026-10-16T19:36:49+00:00AIFS Single: 0.4% · 2026-10-16T20:22:21+00:00AIFS Single: 0.4% · 2026-10-16T21:07:44+00:00AIFS Single: 0.4% · 2026-10-16T21:52:50+00:00AIFS Single: 0.4% · 2026-10-16T22:37:57+00:00AIFS Single: 0.4% · 2026-10-16T23:23:15+00:00AIFS Single: 0.4% · 2026-10-17T00:08:46+00:00AIFS Single: 0.4% · 2026-10-17T00:54:54+00:00AIFS Single: 0.2% · 2026-10-17T04:40:52+00:00AIFS Single: 0.2% · 2026-10-17T05:27:59+00:00AIFS Single: 0.2% · 2026-10-17T06:13:33+00:00AIFS Single: 0.2% · 2026-10-17T06:58:42+00:00AIFS Single: 0.2% · 2026-10-17T07:43:56+00:00AIFS Single: 0.2% · 2026-10-17T08:30:36+00:00AIFS Single: 0.2% · 2026-10-17T09:16:22+00:00AIFS Single: 0.2% · 2026-10-17T10:01:47+00:00AIFS Single: 0.2% · 2026-10-17T10:46:52+00:00AIFS Single: 0.2% · 2026-10-17T11:31:57+00:00AIFS Single: 0.2% · 2026-10-17T12:17:25+00:00AIFS Single: 0.2% · 2026-10-17T13:02:31+00:00AIFS Single: 5.0% · 2026-10-17T13:47:45+00:00AIFS Single: 5.0% · 2026-10-17T14:39:14+00:00AIFS Single: 5.0% · 2026-10-17T15:24:25+00:00AIFS Single: 5.0% · 2026-10-17T16:10:29+00:00AIFS Single: 5.0% · 2026-10-17T16:55:37+00:00AIFS Single: 5.0% · 2026-10-17T17:40:46+00:00AIFS Single: 5.0% · 2026-10-17T18:25:54+00:00AIFS Single: 5.0% · 2026-10-17T19:11:01+00:00AIFS Single: 4.3% · 2026-10-17T19:56:08+00:00AIFS Single: 4.3% · 2026-10-17T20:41:25+00:00AIFS Single: 4.3% · 2026-10-17T21:26:35+00:00AIFS Single: 4.3% · 2026-10-17T22:11:50+00:00IFS Ensemble: 1.2% · 2026-10-16T13:27:56+00:00IFS Ensemble: 1.2% · 2026-10-16T14:19:39+00:00IFS Ensemble: 1.2% · 2026-10-16T15:05:08+00:00IFS Ensemble: 1.2% · 2026-10-16T15:50:53+00:00IFS Ensemble: 1.2% · 2026-10-16T16:36:03+00:00IFS Ensemble: 1.2% · 2026-10-16T17:21:16+00:00IFS Ensemble: 1.2% · 2026-10-16T18:06:35+00:00IFS Ensemble: 1.2% · 2026-10-16T18:51:41+00:00IFS Ensemble: 1.2% · 2026-10-16T19:36:49+00:00IFS Ensemble: 1.2% · 2026-10-16T20:22:21+00:00IFS Ensemble: 1.2% · 2026-10-16T21:07:44+00:00IFS Ensemble: 1.2% · 2026-10-16T21:52:50+00:00IFS Ensemble: 1.2% · 2026-10-16T22:37:57+00:00IFS Ensemble: 1.2% · 2026-10-16T23:23:15+00:00IFS Ensemble: 1.2% · 2026-10-17T00:08:46+00:00IFS Ensemble: 1.2% · 2026-10-17T00:54:54+00:00IFS Ensemble: 1.2% · 2026-10-17T04:40:52+00:00IFS Ensemble: 1.2% · 2026-10-17T05:27:59+00:00IFS Ensemble: 1.2% · 2026-10-17T06:13:33+00:00IFS Ensemble: 1.2% · 2026-10-17T06:58:42+00:00IFS Ensemble: 1.2% · 2026-10-17T07:43:56+00:00IFS Ensemble: 1.2% · 2026-10-17T08:30:36+00:00IFS Ensemble: 1.2% · 2026-10-17T09:16:22+00:00IFS Ensemble: 1.2% · 2026-10-17T10:01:47+00:00IFS Ensemble: 1.2% · 2026-10-17T10:46:52+00:00IFS Ensemble: 0.5% · 2026-10-17T11:31:57+00:00IFS Ensemble: 0.5% · 2026-10-17T12:17:25+00:00IFS Ensemble: 0.5% · 2026-10-17T13:02:31+00:00IFS Ensemble: 0.5% · 2026-10-17T13:47:45+00:00IFS Ensemble: 0.5% · 2026-10-17T14:39:14+00:00IFS Ensemble: 0.5% · 2026-10-17T15:24:25+00:00IFS Ensemble: 0.5% · 2026-10-17T16:10:29+00:00IFS Ensemble: 0.5% · 2026-10-17T16:55:37+00:00IFS Ensemble: 0.5% · 2026-10-17T17:40:46+00:00IFS Ensemble: 0.5% · 2026-10-17T18:25:54+00:00IFS Ensemble: 0.5% · 2026-10-17T19:11:01+00:00IFS Ensemble: 0.5% · 2026-10-17T19:56:08+00:00IFS Ensemble: 0.5% · 2026-10-17T20:41:25+00:00IFS Ensemble: 0.5% · 2026-10-17T21:26:35+00:00IFS Ensemble: 0.5% · 2026-10-17T22:11:50+00:00WeatherNext 2: 39.9% · 2026-10-16T13:27:56+00:00WeatherNext 2: 39.9% · 2026-10-16T14:19:39+00:00WeatherNext 2: 39.9% · 2026-10-16T15:05:08+00:00WeatherNext 2: 39.9% · 2026-10-16T15:50:53+00:00WeatherNext 2: 39.9% · 2026-10-16T16:36:03+00:00WeatherNext 2: 36.9% · 2026-10-16T17:21:16+00:00WeatherNext 2: 36.9% · 2026-10-16T18:06:35+00:00WeatherNext 2: 36.9% · 2026-10-16T18:51:41+00:00WeatherNext 2: 36.9% · 2026-10-16T19:36:49+00:00WeatherNext 2: 36.9% · 2026-10-16T20:22:21+00:00WeatherNext 2: 36.9% · 2026-10-16T21:07:44+00:00WeatherNext 2: 36.9% · 2026-10-16T21:52:50+00:00WeatherNext 2: 36.9% · 2026-10-16T22:37:57+00:00WeatherNext 2: 25.9% · 2026-10-16T23:23:15+00:00WeatherNext 2: 25.9% · 2026-10-17T00:08:46+00:00WeatherNext 2: 25.9% · 2026-10-17T00:54:54+00:00WeatherNext 2: 25.9% · 2026-10-17T04:40:52+00:00WeatherNext 2: 25.9% · 2026-10-17T05:27:59+00:00WeatherNext 2: 22.2% · 2026-10-17T06:13:33+00:00WeatherNext 2: 22.2% · 2026-10-17T06:58:42+00:00WeatherNext 2: 22.2% · 2026-10-17T07:43:56+00:00WeatherNext 2: 22.2% · 2026-10-17T08:30:36+00:00WeatherNext 2: 22.2% · 2026-10-17T09:16:22+00:00WeatherNext 2: 22.2% · 2026-10-17T10:01:47+00:00WeatherNext 2: 22.2% · 2026-10-17T10:46:52+00:00WeatherNext 2: 13.7% · 2026-10-17T11:31:57+00:00WeatherNext 2: 13.7% · 2026-10-17T12:17:25+00:00WeatherNext 2: 13.7% · 2026-10-17T13:02:31+00:00WeatherNext 2: 13.7% · 2026-10-17T13:47:45+00:00WeatherNext 2: 13.8% · 2026-10-17T14:39:14+00:00WeatherNext 2: 13.8% · 2026-10-17T15:24:25+00:00WeatherNext 2: 13.8% · 2026-10-17T16:10:29+00:00WeatherNext 2: 5.9% · 2026-10-17T16:55:37+00:00WeatherNext 2: 5.9% · 2026-10-17T17:40:46+00:00WeatherNext 2: 5.9% · 2026-10-17T18:25:54+00:00WeatherNext 2: 5.9% · 2026-10-17T19:11:01+00:00WeatherNext 2: 5.9% · 2026-10-17T19:56:08+00:00WeatherNext 2: 5.9% · 2026-10-17T20:41:25+00:00WeatherNext 2: 5.9% · 2026-10-17T21:26:35+00:00WeatherNext 2: 5.9% · 2026-10-17T22:11:50+00:00IFS HRES: 10.1% · 2026-10-16T13:27:56+00:00IFS HRES: 10.2% · 2026-10-16T14:19:39+00:00IFS HRES: 10.2% · 2026-10-16T15:05:08+00:00IFS HRES: 10.2% · 2026-10-16T15:50:53+00:00IFS HRES: 10.2% · 2026-10-16T16:36:03+00:00IFS HRES: 10.2% · 2026-10-16T17:21:16+00:00IFS HRES: 10.2% · 2026-10-16T18:06:35+00:00IFS HRES: 10.2% · 2026-10-16T18:51:41+00:00IFS HRES: 10.2% · 2026-10-16T19:36:49+00:00IFS HRES: 10.2% · 2026-10-16T20:22:21+00:00IFS HRES: 10.2% · 2026-10-16T21:07:44+00:00IFS HRES: 10.2% · 2026-10-16T21:52:50+00:00IFS HRES: 2.3% · 2026-10-16T22:37:57+00:00IFS HRES: 2.3% · 2026-10-16T23:23:15+00:00IFS HRES: 2.3% · 2026-10-17T00:08:46+00:00IFS HRES: 2.3% · 2026-10-17T00:54:54+00:00IFS HRES: 2.3% · 2026-10-17T04:40:52+00:00IFS HRES: 2.3% · 2026-10-17T05:27:59+00:00IFS HRES: 2.3% · 2026-10-17T06:13:33+00:00IFS HRES: 2.3% · 2026-10-17T06:58:42+00:00IFS HRES: 1.9% · 2026-10-17T07:43:56+00:00IFS HRES: 1.9% · 2026-10-17T08:30:36+00:00IFS HRES: 1.9% · 2026-10-17T09:16:22+00:00IFS HRES: 1.9% · 2026-10-17T10:01:47+00:00IFS HRES: 1.9% · 2026-10-17T10:46:52+00:00IFS HRES: 1.9% · 2026-10-17T11:31:57+00:00IFS HRES: 1.9% · 2026-10-17T12:17:25+00:00IFS HRES: 1.9% · 2026-10-17T13:02:31+00:00IFS HRES: 2.0% · 2026-10-17T13:47:45+00:00IFS HRES: 1.9% · 2026-10-17T14:39:14+00:00IFS HRES: 1.9% · 2026-10-17T15:24:25+00:00IFS HRES: 1.9% · 2026-10-17T16:10:29+00:00IFS HRES: 1.9% · 2026-10-17T16:55:37+00:00IFS HRES: 1.9% · 2026-10-17T17:40:46+00:00IFS HRES: 1.9% · 2026-10-17T18:25:54+00:00IFS HRES: 1.9% · 2026-10-17T19:11:01+00:00IFS HRES: 0.9% · 2026-10-17T19:56:08+00:00IFS HRES: 0.9% · 2026-10-17T20:41:25+00:00IFS HRES: 0.9% · 2026-10-17T21:26:35+00:00IFS HRES: 0.9% · 2026-10-17T22:11:50+00:00ICON: 21.9% · 2026-10-16T13:27:56+00:00ICON: 22.0% · 2026-10-16T14:19:39+00:00ICON: 22.0% · 2026-10-16T15:05:08+00:00ICON: 22.0% · 2026-10-16T15:50:53+00:00ICON: 22.0% · 2026-10-16T16:36:03+00:00ICON: 22.0% · 2026-10-16T17:21:16+00:00ICON: 22.0% · 2026-10-16T18:06:35+00:00ICON: 22.0% · 2026-10-16T18:51:41+00:00ICON: 12.0% · 2026-10-16T19:36:49+00:00ICON: 12.0% · 2026-10-16T20:22:21+00:00ICON: 12.0% · 2026-10-16T21:07:44+00:00ICON: 12.0% · 2026-10-16T21:52:50+00:00ICON: 12.0% · 2026-10-16T22:37:57+00:00ICON: 12.0% · 2026-10-16T23:23:15+00:00ICON: 12.0% · 2026-10-17T00:08:46+00:00ICON: 12.0% · 2026-10-17T00:54:54+00:00ICON: 12.0% · 2026-10-17T04:40:52+00:00ICON: 12.0% · 2026-10-17T05:27:59+00:00ICON: 12.0% · 2026-10-17T06:13:33+00:00ICON: 12.0% · 2026-10-17T06:58:42+00:00ICON: 8.0% · 2026-10-17T07:43:56+00:00ICON: 8.0% · 2026-10-17T08:30:36+00:00ICON: 8.0% · 2026-10-17T09:16:22+00:00ICON: 8.0% · 2026-10-17T10:01:47+00:00ICON: 8.0% · 2026-10-17T10:46:52+00:00ICON: 8.0% · 2026-10-17T11:31:57+00:00ICON: 8.0% · 2026-10-17T12:17:25+00:00ICON: 8.0% · 2026-10-17T13:02:31+00:00ICON: 8.0% · 2026-10-17T13:47:45+00:00ICON: 8.1% · 2026-10-17T14:39:14+00:00ICON: 8.1% · 2026-10-17T15:24:25+00:00ICON: 8.1% · 2026-10-17T16:10:29+00:00ICON: 8.1% · 2026-10-17T16:55:37+00:00ICON: 8.1% · 2026-10-17T17:40:46+00:00ICON: 8.1% · 2026-10-17T18:25:54+00:00ICON: 8.1% · 2026-10-17T19:11:01+00:00ICON: 4.3% · 2026-10-17T19:56:08+00:00ICON: 4.3% · 2026-10-17T20:41:25+00:00ICON: 4.3% · 2026-10-17T21:26:35+00:00ICON: 4.3% · 2026-10-17T22:11:50+00:0010-16 13:2710-17 07:4310-17 22:11
AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON
2026-10-17T22:11:50+00:00 · UTC
View the forecast data
UTCAIFSEPSWN2HRESICON
2026-10-16T13:27:56+00:003.8%1.2%39.9%10.1%21.9%
2026-10-16T14:19:39+00:003.9%1.2%39.9%10.2%22.0%
2026-10-16T15:05:08+00:003.9%1.2%39.9%10.2%22.0%
2026-10-16T15:50:53+00:003.9%1.2%39.9%10.2%22.0%
2026-10-16T16:36:03+00:003.9%1.2%39.9%10.2%22.0%
2026-10-16T17:21:16+00:003.9%1.2%36.9%10.2%22.0%
2026-10-16T18:06:35+00:003.9%1.2%36.9%10.2%22.0%
2026-10-16T18:51:41+00:003.9%1.2%36.9%10.2%22.0%
2026-10-16T19:36:49+00:000.4%1.2%36.9%10.2%12.0%
2026-10-16T20:22:21+00:000.4%1.2%36.9%10.2%12.0%
2026-10-16T21:07:44+00:000.4%1.2%36.9%10.2%12.0%
2026-10-16T21:52:50+00:000.4%1.2%36.9%10.2%12.0%
2026-10-16T22:37:57+00:000.4%1.2%36.9%2.3%12.0%
2026-10-16T23:23:15+00:000.4%1.2%25.9%2.3%12.0%
2026-10-17T00:08:46+00:000.4%1.2%25.9%2.3%12.0%
2026-10-17T00:54:54+00:000.4%1.2%25.9%2.3%12.0%
2026-10-17T04:40:52+00:000.2%1.2%25.9%2.3%12.0%
2026-10-17T05:27:59+00:000.2%1.2%25.9%2.3%12.0%
2026-10-17T06:13:33+00:000.2%1.2%22.2%2.3%12.0%
2026-10-17T06:58:42+00:000.2%1.2%22.2%2.3%12.0%
2026-10-17T07:43:56+00:000.2%1.2%22.2%1.9%8.0%
2026-10-17T08:30:36+00:000.2%1.2%22.2%1.9%8.0%
2026-10-17T09:16:22+00:000.2%1.2%22.2%1.9%8.0%
2026-10-17T10:01:47+00:000.2%1.2%22.2%1.9%8.0%
2026-10-17T10:46:52+00:000.2%1.2%22.2%1.9%8.0%
2026-10-17T11:31:57+00:000.2%0.5%13.7%1.9%8.0%
2026-10-17T12:17:25+00:000.2%0.5%13.7%1.9%8.0%
2026-10-17T13:02:31+00:000.2%0.5%13.7%1.9%8.0%
2026-10-17T13:47:45+00:005.0%0.5%13.7%2.0%8.0%
2026-10-17T14:39:14+00:005.0%0.5%13.8%1.9%8.1%
2026-10-17T15:24:25+00:005.0%0.5%13.8%1.9%8.1%
2026-10-17T16:10:29+00:005.0%0.5%13.8%1.9%8.1%
2026-10-17T16:55:37+00:005.0%0.5%5.9%1.9%8.1%
2026-10-17T17:40:46+00:005.0%0.5%5.9%1.9%8.1%
2026-10-17T18:25:54+00:005.0%0.5%5.9%1.9%8.1%
2026-10-17T19:11:01+00:005.0%0.5%5.9%1.9%8.1%
2026-10-17T19:56:08+00:004.3%0.5%5.9%0.9%4.3%
2026-10-17T20:41:25+00:004.3%0.5%5.9%0.9%4.3%
2026-10-17T21:26:35+00:004.3%0.5%5.9%0.9%4.3%
2026-10-17T22:11:50+00:004.3%0.5%5.9%0.9%4.3%
THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODELYESMEANSPREAD σINITIALIZATION UTCBRIER ↓
NWS forecast7%66.0°F5.9°F2026-10-17 14:00Pending
WeatherNext 26%67.2°F4.7°F2026-10-17 06:00Pending
National Blend5%67.0°F4.5°F2026-10-17 06:00Pending
AIFS Single4%65.2°F5.4°F2026-10-17 12:00Pending
ICON4%62.2°F7.2°F2026-10-17 12:00Pending
IFS HRES<1%59.0°F6.6°F2026-10-17 12:00Pending
IFS Ensemble<1%64.5°F3.9°F2026-10-17 00:00Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 75°F · KPHL

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KPHL-20261023-TMAX-GE75
Opened Oct 16 · 13:27 UTC

Original listing: Philadelphia runs hot-for-here: 75°F+ · Fri Oct 23

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗