KPHL / Sat Oct 24 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Philadelphia, PAHigh ≥ 64°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST38%Oct 18 · 14:04 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

70%

47%

38%

24%

Consensus

38%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 39.4¢Risks 39.45u

HRESNO 60.6¢Risks 60.55u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +60.55u · HRES −60.55u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	2.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	2.7%	—	—	—	—	19.7%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	79.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	24.4%	—	—	—	—	48.4%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	88.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	91.5%	—	—	—	—	64.5%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	66.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	85.1%	—	—	—	—	65.5%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	62.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	72.1%	—	—	—	—	64.1%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	22.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	70.8%	—	—	—	—	73.9%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	95.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	66.5%	—	—	—	—	61.5%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	82.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	68.0%	—	—	—	—	68.4%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	44.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	78.9%	—	—	—	—	64.1%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	71.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	60.9%	—	—	—	—	53.3%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	42.2%	—	14.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	54.5%	—	—	—	—	43.8%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	38.6%	—	43.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	84.5%	—	—	—	—	47.6%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	75.0%	—	11.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	47.0%	—	—	—	—	51.8%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	31.0%	—	71.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	71.5%	—	—	—	—	40.7%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	52.6%	—	31.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	12.7%	—	50.6%	—	—	34.2%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	5.3%	—	34.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	4.3%	7.2%	46.6%	—	—	22.3%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	18.0%	—	60.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	4.2%	4.7%	66.4%	12.2%	—	14.5%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	37.3%	—	36.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	22.1%	14.4%	50.7%	33.7%	—	11.7%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	44.8%	—	24.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	35.8%	25.8%	50.8%	38.7%	—	17.9%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	32.6%	—	30.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	44.4%	23.0%	35.2%	5.9%	—	11.9%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	51.6%	1.9%	34.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	55.8%	21.9%	40.1%	7.4%	—	9.7%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	56.0%	27.4%	38.2%	—	—	0.0%
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	54.4%	34.6%	39.6%	12.2%	43.0%	15.6%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	50.9%	—	39.3%	—	—	18.4%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
AIFS Single	70%	66.3°F	5.4°F	2026-10-18 06:00	Pending
NWS forecast	53%	64.0°F	5.9°F	2026-10-18 03:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	47%	63.1°F	4.7°F	2026-10-18 00:00	Pending
National Blend	46%	63.0°F	5.6°F	2026-10-18 06:00	Pending
ICON	38%	61.4°F	7.2°F	2026-10-18 00:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	24%	60.9°F	3.7°F	2026-10-18 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	9%	54.7°F	6.6°F	2026-10-18 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 64°F · KPHL

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KPHL-20261024-TMAX-GE64
Opened Oct 17 · 11:31 UTC

Original listing: Philadelphia high ≥ 64°F · Sat Oct 24

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗